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Old 10-26-2023, 10:08 PM
 
Location: Odenton, MD
3,527 posts, read 2,321,970 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
There are tons of lots still. The Yards, the DCHA sites, and all the area across South Capitol Street.
There are, just nowhere near enough to double the population density as is it currently stands.
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Old 10-26-2023, 10:09 PM
 
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I don't know how to do that. But tract 53.04 in the U District was 124,339/sm in 2020 per the Census map (53033005304) mostly due to UW-owned dorms.


The others in in that range by the next census will reflect current U-C projects and others I expect to start soon, two or three clusters of mostly 44-story apartments on the north side of Downtown, at least one more tract in the U District (which is going nuts with student housing these days), and maybe a tract on First Hill like at Yesler Terrace. It'll depend how current tracts are broken up, but it's possible we'll have some tracts in the multiple hundreds of thousands.



The peak block in terms of residents will be one with 1,700 units on less than two acres in four towers, two U-C with 1,130 so far and the others looking like potential near-term starts. With its share of streets it would be about three acres. If they add the block to the west that would be another 700 units, for a total of maybe 3,600 residents in six acres. Let's call it 6.4 for symmetry. That could be 360,000/sm if so.
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Old 10-27-2023, 05:37 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays25 View Post
I don't know how to do that. But tract 53.04 in the U District was 124,339/sm in 2020 per the Census map (53033005304) mostly due to UW-owned dorms.


The others in in that range by the next census will reflect current U-C projects and others I expect to start soon, two or three clusters of mostly 44-story apartments on the north side of Downtown, at least one more tract in the U District (which is going nuts with student housing these days), and maybe a tract on First Hill like at Yesler Terrace. It'll depend how current tracts are broken up, but it's possible we'll have some tracts in the multiple hundreds of thousands.



The peak block in terms of residents will be one with 1,700 units on less than two acres in four towers, two U-C with 1,130 so far and the others looking like potential near-term starts. With its share of streets it would be about three acres. If they add the block to the west that would be another 700 units, for a total of maybe 3,600 residents in six acres. Let's call it 6.4 for symmetry. That could be 360,000/sm if so.
Which tract is that on the census reporter website? Can you please post the link?
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Old 10-27-2023, 05:38 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Joakim3 View Post
There are, just nowhere near enough to double the population density as is it currently stands.
Yes, there actually are. First, many of the buildings that delivered in Navy Yard were after the 2020 census. Second, you’re underestimating the amount of lots left in the neighborhood. Have you counted the lots?

On a side note, I was talking about a census tract being over 125,000+ people per square mile. Are you disputing that?
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Old 10-27-2023, 08:23 AM
 
Location: Los Angeles, CA
5,003 posts, read 5,979,299 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Which tract is that on the census reporter website? Can you please post the link?
I googled "Seattle census tract 53.04" and found this as the first link.

https://censusreporter.org/profiles/...-5304-king-wa/
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Old 10-27-2023, 08:31 AM
 
14,020 posts, read 15,011,523 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Yes, there actually are. First, many of the buildings that delivered in Navy Yard were after the 2020 census. Second, you’re underestimating the amount of lots left in the neighborhood. Have you counted the lots?

On a side note, I was talking about a census tract being over 125,000+ people per square mile. Are you disputing that?
Nobody can dispute something that doesn’t exist yet by your own admission.

Pretty easy to win an argument about what could possibly be in 2035.
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Old 10-27-2023, 08:32 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mhays25 View Post
I don't know how to do that. But tract 53.04 in the U District was 124,339/sm in 2020 per the Census map (53033005304) mostly due to UW-owned dorms.


The others in in that range by the next census will reflect current U-C projects and others I expect to start soon, two or three clusters of mostly 44-story apartments on the north side of Downtown, at least one more tract in the U District (which is going nuts with student housing these days), and maybe a tract on First Hill like at Yesler Terrace. It'll depend how current tracts are broken up, but it's possible we'll have some tracts in the multiple hundreds of thousands.



The peak block in terms of residents will be one with 1,700 units on less than two acres in four towers, two U-C with 1,130 so far and the others looking like potential near-term starts. With its share of streets it would be about three acres. If they add the block to the west that would be another 700 units, for a total of maybe 3,600 residents in six acres. Let's call it 6.4 for symmetry. That could be 360,000/sm if so.
I found it.

Seattle (University District)
Census Tract 53.04, King, WA

Land Area: 0.028 square miles
Population: 3,507 people
Population Density: 124,374.7 people per square mile



It's the exact same size as this area in DC I have mentioned before:

DC (Mt. Vernon Triangle)
BG 3, Tract 47.03, District of Columbia, DC
BG 1, Tract 47.03, District of Columbia, DC
BG 3, Tract 47.02, District of Columbia, DC
BG 5, Tract 47.02, District of Columbia, DC

Land Area: 0.028 square miles
Population: 3,656 people
Population Density: 130,571.429 people per square mile

The major difference for this Mt. Vernon Triangle area is that there are still thousands of residents coming to this area inside this footprint.

Building under construction

Building under construction

This lot is now under construction too


Also, the owner of this building has expressed an interest in redevelopment.

Building waiting for redevelopment

This lot has a building that is scheduled to break ground next year:

Building scheduled for 2024 ground breaking

Rendering of that building: 550 Units? Residential + Hotel? Renderings Show Possibilities For a Mt. Vernon Triangle Parking Lot

Having said all this, Navy Yard, Union Market, and NOMA will actually be denser than this area in Mt. Vernon Triangle.
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Old 10-27-2023, 08:35 AM
 
Location: Odenton, MD
3,527 posts, read 2,321,970 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MDAllstar View Post
Yes, there actually are. First, many of the buildings that delivered in Navy Yard were after the 2020 census. Second, you’re underestimating the amount of lots left in the neighborhood. Have you counted the lots?

On a side note, I was talking about a census tract being over 125,000+ people per square mile. Are you disputing that?
I know many of the buildings were delivered post 2020. This is the entire list of what was in the pipeline, what’s been completed and the blocks they sit on. https://www.capitolriverfront.org/do...re/development

Do the math.

Regarding census tract density. It’s that high because the tract consists of two buildings. Chicago has a census tract that is +500k ppsm because it’s happens to be one residential skyscraper

Pretty much any city that has adjacent residential skyscrapers next to each other in a 2-3 acres would have a census tract that high. Seattle being an example of that as mhays pointed out.
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Old 10-27-2023, 08:41 AM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by Joakim3 View Post
I know many of the buildings were delivered post 2020. This is the entire list of what was in the pipeline, what’s been completed and the blocks they sit on. https://www.capitolriverfront.org/do...re/development

Do the math.

Regarding census tract density. It’s that high because the tract consists of two buildings. Chicago has a census tract that is +500k ppsm because it’s happens to be one residential skyscraper

Pretty much any city that has adjacent residential skyscrapers next to each other in a 2-3 acres would have a census tract that high. Seattle being an example of that as mhays pointed out.
Please refer to my post about Mt. Vernon Triangle. You're counting empty buildings in lease up when you refer to Navy Yard population.

Case and Point Below in Navy Yard

BG 3, Tract 72.02, District of Columbia, DC

Land Area: 0.025 square miles
Population: 1,472 people
Population Density: 59,911.4 people per square mile

There are at least 3,500 residents living in this footprint right now.

And this development within that footprint hasn't even broken ground yet:

A 520-Unit Development Proposed at South Capitol Street and I-695


Also, Case and Point

BG 2, Tract 72.02, District of Columbia, DC

Land Area: 0.028 square miles
Population: 1,508 people
Population Density: 54,010.3 people per square mile

Besides the fact that most of these buildings were empty in the above numbers:

This building hasn't even broken ground yet.
A 250-Unit Apartment Building Pitched Just North of Nats Park

And this building just delivered last month.
Building just delivered September 2023

Last edited by MDAllstar; 10-27-2023 at 09:01 AM..
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Old 10-27-2023, 01:28 PM
 
Location: Washington D.C.
13,727 posts, read 15,751,203 times
Reputation: 4081
Quote:
Originally Posted by btownboss4 View Post
I think something that’s going to hinder these office to residential transitions is, well office vacancy is way up from 2019 when it was often 5% or something, but both Boston and Philly are between 19 and 20% right now. DC is 20.3%. While there are buildings that are high enough to want to flip. Due to hybrid work there is a big drop in daily footfall that’s not necessarily reflected in an equal drop in office demand.

If people come in 3 days a week, you still need the office even though now there is a 40% drop in Downtown population on any given day attributed to that company.

Chicago is at 22.6%. Which means which considering the size of those high rises there are probably not a huge amount of buildings that are more than 30% empty.
White House Unveils Plan to Boost Office-to-Residential Conversions

Monumental news out of the White House today. DC’s Federal real estate footprint in Downtown DC position’s DC to benefit more than any other city in the nation due to this news.
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