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Now that we have July 1, 2023 population counts (U.S. Census Bureau, Dept. of Commerce) AND Q3 GDP counts (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Dept. of Commerce), here are the latest GDP per capita counts for each state. I also added Canada based on StatCan's real GDP growth of 0.6% from Q3 2022 > Q3 2023.
New England Region: $1,409.744b / 15,159,777 = $92,992
West Coast Region: $5,444.125b / 56,374,151 = $96,571
Alaska: $67.673b / 733,406 = $92,272
California: $3,898.158b / 38,965,193 = $100,042 [California breaks $100k for first time in history!]
Hawaii: $108.993b / 1,435,138 = $75,946
Nevada: $241.432b / 3,194,176 = $75,585 [higher than expected]
Oregon: $319.525b / 4,233,358 = $75,478
Washington: $808.344b / 7,812,880 = $103,463 [on track to be #2 in country in 1-2 years]
Canada: $2,189.386b / 40,528,396 = $54,021
Alberta: $357.539b / 4,756,408 = $75,170
British Columbia: $307.659b / 5,581,127 = $55,125
Manitoba: $67.360b / 1,465,440 = $45,966
New Brunswick: $34.643b / 842,725 = $41,108
Newfoundland and Labrador: $31.699b / 540,418 = $58,656
Nova Scotia: $42.335b / 1,066,416 = $39,698 [wow, that's low!]
Northwest Territories: $4.338b / 44,760 = $96,917
Nunavut: $3.700b / 40,817 = $90,649 [higher than expected]
Ontario: $816.030b / 15,801,768 = $51,642 [lower than expected]
Prince Edward Island: $7.298b / 175,853 = $41,500
Quebec: $424.725b / 8,948,540 = $47,463
Saskatchewan: $89.065b / 1,218,976 = $73,065
Yukon: $2.995b / 45,148 = $66,337
If you consider Canada to be two regions, then you get: Eastern Canada: $832.656b / 13,152,676 = $63,307 Western Canada: $1,356.730b / 27,375,720 = $49,560
Note: All figures for Canada are in U.S. Dollars. The exchange rate used was $1 USD = $1.32635 CAD, which is the current spot price as of this post.
Note #2: Canada provincial data is currently not released for Q3, though we do have national data for Q3. This data takes Q4 2022 provincial data and applies a +0.6% real GDP increase for each province and ~2.6% inflation as registered since Q3 2022. As this applies a national adjustment to each province, it may understate provinces who performed above the national average, and vice-versa.
Canada has actually seen a decrease in Per Capita GDP over the last couple years. The only thing keeping them out of recession is the ~1.2M migrants it lets in annually. The ~3+% population growth keeps GDP above water
I'm pretty sure Wyoming's high per capita GDP is driven by oil. I'm not sure about Nebraska though. What drives the high numbers there? Surprising. Good for them, but surprising numbers.
On another note, I was also surprised to see Canadian per capita numbers so low. I know the exchange rate is particularly unfavorable for them right now, but I didn't expect it to be that below US numbers. Canada is more akin to the UK or France in terms of how wealthy it is rather than the US, Australia or the Nordic countries.
Last edited by CityLover9; 12-30-2023 at 10:39 AM..
I'm pretty sure Wyoming's high per capita GDP is driven by oil. I'm not sure about Nebraska though. What drives the high numbers there? Surprising. Good for them, but surprising numbers.
On another note, I was also surprised to see Canadian per capita numbers so low. I know the exchange rate is particularly unfavorable for them right now, but I didn't expect it to be that below US numbers. Canada is more akin to the UK or France in terms of how wealthy it is rather than the US, Australia or the Nordic countries.
Canada is a resource economy country. So their GDP is more typical of rural America.
For more than just a few decades the financial economy has been "worth" more than a resource economy. Though the Canadian multi-national banks are just as nasty as Wall Street banks.
Except for oil, there is a reason that Alberta is part of Texas.
Unless otherwise stated, I would assume per capita is division amongst all people, regardless of age or nationality.
Nebraska and Wyoming are surprisingly high. Is that because of oil? Or in Wyoming’s case, a few super rich residents in Jackson Hole area?
Nebraska seems to just have a very diverse economy. It looks like the top 10 contributors to GDP are:
1. Finance and Insurance: $39b (the Mutual of Omaha and the Berkshire Hathaway effect)
2. Manufacturing: $22b
3. Government: $20b
4. Professional and business services: $18b
5. Education and Health Care: $14b
6. Transportation and warehousing: $11b (the Union Pacific effect)
7. Wholesale trade: $9b
8. Retail trade: $8b
9. Agriculture, forestry, and fishing: $7b
10. Construction: $7b
Those 10 sectors are ~86% of Nebraska's economy. Oil and gas extraction is actually worth about $240 million of GDP (or 0.25% of the economy).
Also remember that Berkshire Hathway is enormous (9th largest company in the world) and owns Alleghany, Burlington Northern and Santa Fe, Dairy Queen, Duracell, Geico, General Re, Helzberg Diamonds, Lubrizol, Orange Julius, Sees Candies, Star Furniture, 27% of Kraft Heinz, 20% of American Express, 13% of Bank of America, etc. So Nebraska hasn't had a real recession in decades.
Sioux Falls in South Dakota is similarly booming since it's following a similar strategy (and has even become America's #2 Credit Card Capital).
Quote:
Originally Posted by CityLover9
On another note, I was also surprised to see Canadian per capita numbers so low. I know the exchange rate is particularly unfavorable for them right now, but I didn't expect it to be that below US numbers. Canada is more akin to the UK or France in terms of how wealthy it is rather than the US, Australia or the Nordic countries.
The CAD is back to baseline. The USD saw a 11% drop in 2021, but that was an outlier due to COVID. The USD:CAD exchange rate has returned to its pre-COVID levels in 2019. Canada has always struggled tremendously with innovation. The largest 500 companies in Canada are collectively worth less than just Apple, for example. And when you look at what caused California's GDP to double in 12 years, it's tech and major corporate HQs.
In 2013, Canada had a GDP of $1.9 trillion and California was at $2.2 trillion. Per capita, they were at par, since California had more people at the time. Today, Canada has $2.2 trillion and California is at $3.9 trillion, largely driven by the tech boom of the 2010s. This is what happens when you fail to compete in industries of the future unfortunately.
Edit: since I missed this:
Quote:
Originally Posted by luv4horses
Does per capita include non-adults? (I assume it’s limited to true citizens of the country.)
Per capita includes everyone regardless of legal status or age. That's how it's traditionally done otherwise you have to introduce other datasets with either dubious provenance (the Census doesn't collect data on undocumented status) or add complex rules (for example, many adults don't contribute to GDP - those over 65 - and many non-adults do - those from 16-18), so the data quickly becomes unruly. So capturing everyone is done to reduce the potential of tainting the data by having to introduce other cross-cuts.
The end result though is (a) states with lots of retirees like Florida and South Carolina get dinged, since a 67-year old retiree contributes to the denominator (population) but not the numerator (GDP), (b) states with lots of university grads get dinged, since these adults similarly don't contribute to GDP but count in the denominator, and (c) states with tons of children (like Utah) get dinged, for similar reasons.
I would say though a bigger issue is cross-border effects (aka the inverse of the examples above). DC doesn't really have a GDP per capita of $260,000. It just has a ton of Marylanders and Virginians who commute in for the day. They contribute to GDP but don't contribute to the population, causing DC to have a much higher figure. Same for New York, which benefits at New Jersey's expense from commuters.
Last edited by manitopiaaa; 12-30-2023 at 12:54 PM..
To me, the biggest shocker is DC is 2.5 times the nearest US state (NY). I was also surprised that Tennessee is so high, what are they doing there, I thought that was a poorish state? As a Washington state resident for 30 years, yes that is a vry rich and productive state.
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