Likely candidates in next OR gubernatorial election (Bend, Wheeler: house, to live in)

[NW Crow]

Not sure exactly what "the rules" or norms are in this sub-forum, but I wondered if anyone who follows OR state politics closely could simply mention likely candidates beyond the 2 previous major party nominees and perhaps Wheeler. I'll browse elsewhere too but thought I'd see what if anything folks would say about that here.

Not looking to debate the candidates or the issues at this time, just wondering if it is considered likely to be re-run(s) in primary and / or general or if there is a new name with real chance to win. Is a 3rd or more major candidate considered likely again or a one-off experience?

[redguard57]

Governors can have up to 8 consecutive years. I see no reason why Kotek will not run again. I don't expect her to have any problem being re-nominated. She seems to be reasonably well liked among Democrats. Her approval rate is net positive but under 50%. She seems to be struggling with Oregonians knowing who she is.

Hard to say who the Republicans will run. The right-wing faction of the state GOP seems to be in the driver's seat so I expect it'll someone that will be too conservative for the state. If they could run Knute Buehler or someone like that again, he'd have a shot. But it seems increasingly unlikely someone like him can make it through the GOP primary.

Becky Johnson's 3rd party run in 2022 was bizarre and an embarrassment. Despite her being a break-away Democrat, she actually seemed to help Kotek win. I imagine her experience will be a deterrent against another similar run. I voted for her in 2022 as a kind of protest since she made the homeless issue a high priority. But her tack to the right on other issues seemed to just dilute the Republican vote & only marginally impact the Democratic vote. She was the kind of person that should have been a strong 3rd party threat. But she wasn't.

Oregon typically has libertarian or green candidates that get 1-3% each.

If Trump is elected in 2024, Kotek will cruise to re-election 2026 barring some major catastrophe or scandal. If Biden wins 2024, a decent Republican has a shot depending on the context of '26 here.

[NW Crow]

Thanks for the reply.

I see that Buehler left the Republican party in 2021. Independent bid seems like a difficult thing to win, but a possibility til ruled out.

Might Tobias Reed try again in 2026? A lot would depend on polls in 2025.

Will Drazan run again and get Republican nomination? Perhaps that will be revealed in 2025.

I looked briefly for other names but I guess it is too early.

[redguard57]

Originally Posted by NW Crow

Thanks for the reply.

I see that Buehler left the Republican party in 2021. Independent bid seems like a difficult thing to win, but a possibility til ruled out.

Might Tobias Reed try again in 2026? A lot would depend on polls in 2025.

Will Drazan run again and get Republican nomination? Perhaps that will be revealed in 2025.

I looked briefly for other names but I guess it is too early.

Tobias Read is still pretty young, and Kotek well connected with all the Democratic players. I don't see what argument he'd have against her, nor do I see him wanting to alienate mainstream Democrats who think Kotek is fine. His main argument in 2022 was being a generic Dem and a slight electability argument against Kotek. She got elected fine.

Ohhh I didn't know Buehler had become an Independent, but it makes sense. I used to live in Bend so actually talked to the guy a bit. He definitely wanted to be governor someday and made moves that made sense, but I have no idea how he's going to do it now. 2018 was by far his best shot, Kate Brown was a career bureaucrat accidental governor no one actually liked. Trump was just too unpopular in Oregon for him to overcome. Had Hillary Clinton been elected in 2016 I bet he would have won.

I just don't see where an Independent is going to get a constituency enough to win. Buehler would be forced into the same box Becky Johnson was - kind of this paleo-Democratic, vaguely Trump-like space, but doesn't edge into much of the Dem or Rep bases. RFK Jr. kind of has this at a national level, and Kyrsten Sinema in Arizona. None of them are calibrated to win. Just to kind of be complainers.

I think it's only possible for an independent to win if there is some sort of catastrophe or major scandal under Kotek that destroys her reputation, and a moderate Independent picks up most of the Democratic vote.

[texasdiver]

Barring some major scandal, Kotek will run again. She is a very smart and experience pol so I don't see her getting mired in scandal.

On the GOP side the closed primary in OR will most likely generate another MAGA-type candidate. Maybe Drazan, but also possibly a Jo Rae Perkins type. In the modern GOP, closed primaries tend to elevate the most MAGA types.

That leaves possible independent party candidates. I don't see another Dem peeling off to run independent. Kotek seems to be governing pretty middle of the road and sticking more with bread and butter issues rather than culture war nonsense. Which means a 3rd party or independent candidate tilting to the right will just split the GOP and right-leaning independent vote and allow Kotek to cruise to victory. No matter what, she'll be favored given the demographics of Oregon. But if the GOP and independent right fractures into MAGA and non-MAGA candidates then that just makes her job easier. The smartest GOP-leaning pols will stay out of such a mess. But the attention seekers may not. So some Dudley type with lots of money could leap in. Say some local CEO type with lots of ego like Howard Schultz threatened to do at the national level.

Oregon would be well served by a jungle primary of the sort that exists in WA and CA. That tends to weed out the extremists on both sides and push forward more centrist candidates. Since the primaries are entirely open and not party aligned.

[Silverfall]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Oregon would be well served by a jungle primary of the sort that exists in WA and CA. That tends to weed out the extremists on both sides and push forward more centrist candidates. Since the primaries are entirely open and not party aligned.

Open primaries have been discussed here, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

I think if Oregon wants a strong independent party and a shot at a governor race, then need to win local races and start working their way up. I don't think a third party would have any shot without holding several seats in the state House and Senate. You need to be seen as a legitimate governing party and you can't do that when you only have 1-2 people in the state legislature.

[Metlakatla]

There won't be any third party drama next term.

Whether you agree with her politics or not, Kotek is something more public officials should strive to be — instead of a "personality," she's a skilled administrator.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by Silverfall

Open primaries have been discussed here, but I don't see it happening anytime soon.

I think if Oregon wants a strong independent party and a shot at a governor race, then need to win local races and start working their way up. I don't think a third party would have any shot without holding several seats in the state House and Senate. You need to be seen as a legitimate governing party and you can't do that when you only have 1-2 people in the state legislature.

Open primaries passed in both WA and CA through initiative petitions and I expect such an initiative would easily pass in OR too, if some group wanted to collect the signatures to put it on the ballot. But yeah, the legislature isn't likely to do it.

[redguard57]

I would like ranked choice like Alaska has.

[Metlakatla]

Originally Posted by redguard57

I would like ranked choice like Alaska has.

It won't last long in Alaska; the usuals are well on their way to repealing it, and the electorate will fall in line at the ballot box.