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These predictions come and go and ignore demand side adjustments. Besides when selling infotainment you have to make grand predictions to get attention.
Although I'll admit the GEO Metro is too small for me.. the Toyota Yaris is about the smallest I'll be happy with. Too big won't do either - fuel consumption, difficulty in parking, etc.
Yes, Facts. What part were you disputing?
On of my cars is larger, gets about the same mpg, and has almost twice the HP as a Yaris. The Yaris isn't that appealing to many Americans.
EDIT: I made the mistake at calling my cars full-size. They are actually mid-size.
why stop at 5 bucks? If Iran were to be willing to fight to close the shipping lanes and stop oil shipments for just a few days the americans would panic and be willing to pay any price and our oil companys know it..We are sheep waiting to be sheared .
Quote:
Sanctions signed into law by U.S. President Barack Obama on New Year's Eve would cut financial institutions that work with Iran's central bank off from the U.S. financial system, blocking the main path for Iran to receive payments for its crude.
The EU is expected to impose new sanctions by the end of this month, possibly including a ban on oil imports and a freeze of central bank assets.
Many Americans are more likely to be happy full-size sedan hybrid than a GEO Metro. Both have their target audiences. Also, my cars have 10 year warranties on the transmission... you can't say the same about a GEO Metro.
There's no source needed. Go to a parking lot and count the sedans. Then count the Metros. It's just common sense. Just like many people like red more than blue.
It would be different if I was claiming a specific number or even all people prefer a sedan. But you can't possibly be disputing the fact that many people prefer a sedan over a Geo Metro.
Gas here is dropping steadily and is currently ~$2.95.
I'll believe the expensive gas hype when it gets back to 2005 levels. As of now, it's all BS.
OP, if you really believe that's the case, why are you posting on a messageboard and not researching oil futures? Seems to me since you have it all figured out, you'd get in on that amazing money making opportunity, no?
First, fuel may very well go to $5/gallon this year. But, what people should be worried about are diesel fuel prices, not gasoline. As I've posted before, an oil company economist told me years ago, "Americans drive on gasoline, but the economy runs on diesel fuel." The diesel fuel--and broader "medium distillate," which includes diesel fuel--situation in this country is really frightening. Despite a warmer than normal winter, which dampens heating oil demand (another medium distillate), and an economy muddling in recession, which dampens diesel fuel demand, diesel fuel remains stuck at near $4 per gallon in most of the country. Any supply disruption, or even if the economy just improves a little bit, may send diesel over the $5 per gallon mark. Anyone who doesn't think that will very negatively affect them is living in a dream world, because every single thing we eat or use in daily living takes copious amounts of diesel fuel to either produce and/or transport. Food production and food transportation are especially dependent on diesel fuel. Most transportation economists will tell you that diesel fuel prices over $4 per gallon really start to hurt the economy, and $5 plus will seriously start to disrupt transportation to the point of causing shortages of food and goods to develop in some parts of the country. We are living on the edge. (By the way, one of things that pretty much dies at, say $5 per gallon medium distillate prices is the airline industry--jet fuel is a medium distillate, and prices at that level would pretty much make air travel unaffordable for any but the wealthy.)
Unfortunately, the diesel fuel situation in the US is pretty entrenched in a bad place. Every gallon of crude oil refined produces a certain percentage of everything from light gases like propane to heavy oils like asphalt. Gasoline is a light distillate/aromatic, while diesel fuel is, as noted, a medium distillate. The percentages of each type of product refined can be "biased" a little bit in the refining process. Most refineries in the US have been "tweaked" to produce higher amounts of gasoline. That was done for both economic and political reasons. The economic basis was that, for many years, gasoline demand was growing faster than diesel fuel demand in the US. The political basis was that the oil companies know that most Americans drive with gasoline. Avoiding the fallout of a potential gasoline shortage developing is very much in the oil companies' political interest. As for diesel, for most Americans, diesel fuel's now higher cost is hidden in the inflating costs of everything--Americans are so economically ignorant these days that they don't make the connection between higher diesel fuel costs and the inflating costs of the goods that they buy.
Compounding the diesel fuel problem is that the Ultra-Low-Sulfur-Diesel (ULSD) fuel now required to be used in the US takes more crude oil to refine. There are also only a couple of refineries in the US that can refine high-sulfur crude--which is what most of the remaining US oil reserves are--into ULSD. The result is that the US is now either having to import more higher cost low-sulfur crude in order to make ULSD, or is having to import outright ULSD that is refined elsewhere. Meanwhile, diesel fuel demand is increasing in the Third World, putting more strain on diesel fuel supplies and unrelenting upward pressure on prices.
Diesel fuel prices in the US "inverted" compared to gasoline prices--meaning diesel fuel prices at the pump exceeded the gasoline price at the pump--starting in about 2005, and have remained inverted most of the time since--a historical first in the US. That "inversion" is now larger than ever--nearly 70 cents a gallon in some places now. That right there indicates how serious the medium distillate situation in this country has become.
What can be done? There are no easy solutions. Break the economy to dampen diesel fuel demand? Not very attractive. Move more freight from fuel-inefficient trucking to fuel-efficient rail? That is already happening, but not nearly fast enough. Tweak the refining mix to maximize diesel fuel production in the US? Could be done, but it would shrink the supply of gasoline and put significant upward price pressure on gasoline. Repeal the ULSD requirements? Politically difficult, and now there are millions of 2007 and newer diesel vehicles that won't run on high-sulfur diesel. Begin refining diesel fuel from coal? It can be done--the technology is proven--but it would take years to bring significant production on line and the diesel fuel produced from coal would likely cost $5-$6 per gallon in today's dollars. What do I think will be done? Probably nothing significant, which will mean "Option 1"--breaking the economy--will be the likely result. When ignorant Americans have gas for their car, but no food on the grocery shelves because of out-of-control diesel fuel prices or outright shortages, then they will "get" what I'm talking about here--but it will probably take that kind of crisis to wake people up about the dire petroleum situation in this country.
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, now would be a good time to start adjusting your lifestyle. 
