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It's 2023. What happened 15 years ago? The global financial crisis and collapse of the housing bubble caused a permanent downshift in the birth rate. The group of entry-level workers just now eligible for employment, many of whom would work as teenagers in local small businesses, is smaller than in the past.
Even before the cliff dive in 2008, the birth rate had been trending down. Worker shortages are going to be a persistent feature of the economy for the foreseeable future.
Whatever precipitated the last GFC/Toxic AAA Mortgage crisis is happening again, but just going on for longer so when it blows up, it will be even more destruction. Only way to cover it up is to have an even large bailout, which will precipitate an even bigger GFC the next round.
I've been applying for 2nd jobs, and I now see one of the reasons for this problem -
They all want workers for same shifts, and they all pay about the same.
Covid caused compression in service hours. All these businesses want workers for lunch and especially dinner shifts in late week and weekends, about 6 hours 4x a week, especially 3-9pm. They all want the same hours covered, but there are not as many people available. Thus, shortage.
Openings now appear to be especially plentiful for those above the entry level.
Mr. Dunkelberg adds: “... and 18 percent have openings for unskilled labor (unchanged).”
Entry level used to pay a hard working man enough to buy a house and raise a family.
Why? Because what he did all day created THINGS that would earn enough PROFIT to allow that level of income*.
The SERVICE ECONOMY doesn't allow that. It doesn't work for a responsible adult employee ...or the employer.
*In 1903 Ford offered $5/day (x5d x 45wk) = at least $1125/yr
In 1903 a modest family home could be bought outright for that same amount.
Across all industries, small companies share the common frustration of not being able to find enough workers, but they are not giving up the search.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140
As a former small business owner myself for 16 years, I can understand the problem. They cannot attract people due to the inability to compete with the salaries and benefits offered by the big corporations.
Only 3% of US businesses are publicly-traded corporations and they employ 5.8% of the work-force. The other 97% are not allowed by law to sell stocks and they employ 94.2% of the work-force so your claim fails as a matter of fact.
Quote:
Originally Posted by NJ Brazen_3133
It is not a shortage of workers, but a shortage of owners who are willing to pay enough to attract them.
Are you sure about that? How do you know it's not a disconnect?
What I'm seeing is a job is advertised, someone applies, they go to the interview only to discover the job as described in the interview is not even close to the job that was advertised and the interviewee isn't qualified or doesn't want to do it.
What I'm also seeing is extreme specialization.
The company doesn't want a shipping and receiving clerk, they want a shipping and receiving clerk who knows how to do it their way but the only people who would know how to do it their way is someone who already worked as a shipping and receiving clerk for them, so they're not getting any or many applicants.
I suspect a lot of it has to do with an unwillingness to train. They want people who can fly solo on the first day of work. Because of that, they very narrowly define the job which naturally excludes large numbers of candidates.
I suspect a lot of it has to do with an unwillingness to train. They want people who can fly solo on the first day of work. Because of that, they very narrowly define the job which naturally excludes large numbers of candidates.
Unwillingness to train is the root of the all-too-common "entry level job requiring three years of experience" job posting.
In defense of employers, employees bounce as soon as they have learned the ropes. In defense of employees, employers pay more for job hoppers than loyal employees.
We have a job market where NO ONE wants to train you for fear you will job hop, but at the same time job hopping is the only way to get meaningful raises.
I'm sure there's some game theoretical model to describe the place we're in, probably some worst of all worlds outcome involving zero trust or integrity on the part of all players.
$15/hr is the new minimum wage, since that's what fast food pays now. A lot of small businesses struggle to pay $15/hr. And if they do find someone to work for that, they probably aren't going to bring much to the table beyond being a warm body with a pulse.
$15/hr is the new minimum wage, since (the Gov of ILLINOIS raised it) so that's what fast food pays now.
A lot of small businesses struggle to pay $15/hr.
A lot of these small SERVICE businesses NEED to fail.
Far too many got used to getting public assistance and stimulus checks. When you look at wages at the lower end of the scale, compare them to what one can get from public assistance, and it starts to come together. Also, many cannot pass a drug test, so choose criminal activities for their "wages".
We MUST tighten public assistance and have STRONG work requirements.
Another issue is that with Bidenflation, prices are continuing to go up. And, some are hiring illegals (welcomed by the current Administration to enforce our laws), and those that cheat the system can pay less and get away with it. So we need more enforcement of our laws regarding immigration. Wages are also reduced in an area when illegals are being hired, and then we, the taxpayers pick up the tab for their "emergency medical to include child birth", and once they get an anchor baby, we are supporting the family with government housing. Maybe taxes were not so high supporting this, employees could be paid more!
You are making a lot of policy proposals, but no quantitative analysis to support your implied claims that your proposed policy changes would make a significant difference. Do I need to remind you this is not the Politics forum?
Show me the numbers, including the supply and demand elasticities, and cite your sources. If you cannot do that, then give an estimate of the mean annual expenses and income of an "illegal immigrant" after 5-10 years.
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