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The circumstances most associated with diminished real estate values and racial shifts are NOT related to "aging" / strict demographics changes but more properly are the kinds of forces that socioligists and econometric modelers have relied on for decades. There are lots of towns with a whole lot more older people than younger people that still have excellent schools, similarly there are a handful of towns like Flossmoor, Evanston and Oak Park with sizable AA population that still have well regarded schools. Folks in areas that are currently served by well regarded schools largely have "voted with their dollars" and support the direction of schools that make it probable large numbers of students will go on to college.
The reality is that for areas that once had a population base of folks that were fully employed in industrial fields that did not require college there was no such tradition of college preparation and the declining trendline of value is not just due to "white flight" but by the sinking wages of non-college educated population base. This is not "racism" or any other kind of "ism" but instead is really more like the understanding of economics advanced by Thorstein Veblen or Joseph Schumpter along with more recent work by people like Richard Nelson and S.G. Winter that explain "economic evolution" as driven by disruptive technology.
Towns like Brookfield (and LGP) are well located to continue to be attractive to folks employed in the Loop or western suburbs and there is ample reason to believe these areas will survive as a more affordable alternatives for folks without the desire/ability to "spend big" to get into Riverside or Lagrange and have access to the same well regarded schools.
In my view, the sorts of things that are largely assocaited with "good schools" are in most ways also at least somewhat predicatably related to things like the resurgence of "traditional" towns -- people that go to college can't help but see the value in things like a well planned out quadrangle, energy efficient housing, efficient transit, usable recreation/ athletic facilities, walkable schools / work locations and many other "planning centric" things that the majority of US college campus reinforce.
Sadly towns that lack these things reflect more of a "wild cat" type of development that may have made sense in the face of massive pressure for suburban growth in the post-WWII era and even to the folks steeped in this mindset who worked for "mega developers" that were still growing in the post-OPEC crisis era, but increasingly one does not have to be a Prius driving, tofu eating, tree hugging nut to understand the value in communities that exhibit an appropriately "human scale". The thing too is that even some of the "neo traditional" developments or those that tried to embrace ideas like "praire restoration / wetlands preservation" really misunderstand things that landscape architects / garden designers like Jens Jensen, Fredric Law Olmsted, Beatrix Farrand and others had practical knowledge of -- humans like to live in a setting that is neither too "orderly" nor too "untamed". The classical history of humans is to do "something" to demarcate their settlements not to simply "pave everything" as some misguided developers did...
LGP is very efficient and likely won't decline for a long time for the most part west of LaGrange Rd, given it's closeness to the train station. The northern part however, is very far from the Metra station in LaGrange, so it's not the best in terms of getting to the loop. The northern part also has more blue collar people moving into it. I certainly don't think the whole of "LGP" or even brookfield will see white flight on any major scale any time soon, just perhaps a more diverse population in that northern section (which is good, bc LGP is like 90% white as of now).
I'm not saying it's sure to happen. All I'm saying is if Westchester ever does decline, it's likely these areas will possibly follow. But so far, neither areas have. It's all a prediction that isn't too insane to think may happen, seeing what's happened in nearby areas.
Although I am far from the biggest defender of Oak Park the fact is the history of desirability remains a stark reminder that so long as the schools are well regarded so to is the overall town. The fact is that if one moves in any direction from the OPRF attendance area one will encounter schools that have not kept pace with the demands of parents that want their kids to be well prepared for competitive colleges and thus OPRF is kind of an "island" surrounded by far less desirable areas.
There is no "domino effect". Towns have not dropped off in desirability simply becuase of population shifts in neighboring areas. The record pretty clearly shows that towns that had weak academics have been "left behind" as folks seek out the areas with the greatest likelihood of doing a good job preparing kids for college.
This is not something that is unique to the western suburbs. The thing that most separates towns even on the shores of Lake Michigan like North Chicago, Waukegan or Zion, from towns like Highland Park or even inland areas like Libertyville is the high quality schools and lack of "industrial legacy"...
Even in the signficantly less desirable southern suburbs there are clear patterns that towns with a tradition of being more residential and giving greater support to schools have resisted the worst ravages of towns that have gone down the tubes as once good paying industries have left town.
Respectfully, anyone that "worries" about the couple of blocks of Lagrange Park north of 31th St having any kind of sharp fall-off in value / desirability is probably rather unfamilar with the broad drivers of values in any town in the region.
Last edited by chet everett; 07-02-2014 at 03:21 PM..
Maybe, maybe not. I disagree that white flight is inevitable. Now, Brookfield-LaGrange Park D95's Hispanic student population has gone from 12% to 26% and the low income population has gone from 15% to 22% since 2009. And at RB high school, it's gone from 19% to 30% and 8% to 17% respectively. Those are pretty substantial percentage jumps in a very short period of time.
True, but this is happening all over the place. Our country's white population is aging, and many suburbs that are 90% white have large populations of Hispanic children. I don't see it as a sign of "white flight" by any means, but more of "white attrition". And it's happening in "desirable areas" too.
True, but this is happening all over the place. Our country's white population is aging, and many suburbs that are 90% white have large populations of Hispanic children. I don't see it as a sign of "white flight" by any means, but more of "white attrition". And it's happening in "desirable areas" too.
True but it brings interesting challenges to school districts. It usually brings in larger numbers of ESL students and parents who don't have the same attitudes towards education that the current parents do. That can create tension, lower standardized test scores (that everyone seems to think are so important), and lead to segregation and a rapid downward spiral if educated parents react by moving or placing their kids in private school. It's easier said than done but it has to be a focus going forward as more and more suburbs will find themselves in that situation, as you point out.
Although I am far from the biggest defender of Oak Park the fact is the history of desirability remains a stark reminder that so long as the schools are well regarded so to is the overall town. The fact is that if one moves in any direction from the OPRF attendance area one will encounter schools that have not kept pace with the demands of parents that want their kids to be well prepared for competitive colleges and thus OPRF is kind of an "island" surrounded by far less desirable areas.
There is no "domino effect". Towns have not dropped off in desirability simply becuase of population shifts in neighboring areas. The record pretty clearly shows that towns that had weak academics have been "left behind" as folks seek out the areas with the greatest likelihood of doing a good job preparing kids for college.
This is not something that is unique to the western suburbs. The thing that most separates towns even on the shores of Lake Michigan like North Chicago, Waukegan or Zion, from towns like Highland Park or even inland areas like Libertyville is the high quality schools and lack of "industrial legacy"...
Even in the signficantly less desirable southern suburbs there are clear patterns that towns with a tradition of being more residential and giving greater support to schools have resisted the worst ravages of towns that have gone down the tubes as once good paying industries have left town.
Respectfully, anyone that "worries" about the couple of blocks of Lagrange Park north of 31th St having any kind of sharp fall-off in value / desirability is probably rather unfamilar with the broad drivers of values in any town in the region.
Of course, but what if those schools were to eventually fall? Did you know that a one point Proviso East was actually, good? As of now, RBHS is good. That doesn't mean it will still be good in 15 or 20 years from now. Again, race shifts generally happen before the schools fall, for the most part. Maywood was, in the '60s, a majority white suburb.
And I'm going to disagree with the "domino effect" being false. Maywood was the first to fall, eventually Bellwood become almost just as bad, and now Hillside is declining. Broadview too is declining. You can't tell me all of this was coincidental and isolated, while all three of these are neighboring or close by to Maywood. The same deal with Harvey. Phoenix , Dolton, and now South Holland are all falling due to their close proximity to that stinkhole. To say there are "no patterns" in these declines is just not true. But I think you have very good points as to how schools are the basis of a good community.
Of course, but what if those schools were to eventually fall? Did you know that a one point Proviso East was actually, good? As of now, RBHS is good. That doesn't mean it will still be good in 15 or 20 years from now. Again, race shifts generally happen before the schools fall, for the most part. Maywood was, in the '60s, a majority white suburb.
And I'm going to disagree with the "domino effect" being false. Maywood was the first to fall, eventually Bellwood become almost just as bad, and now Hillside is declining. Broadview too is declining. You can't tell me all of this was coincidental and isolated, while all three of these are neighboring or close by to Maywood. The same deal with Harvey. Phoenix , Dolton, and now South Holland are all falling due to their close proximity to that stinkhole. To say there are "no patterns" in these declines is just not true. But I think you have very good points as to how schools are the basis of a good community.
Back when Western Electric was still building analog telephones in Cicero and kids could waltz out of Proviso East into a job that would enable them to buy a muscle car with a few months of wage and keep the tank filled at a nickle a gallon it might have been "good" but beleive me, anybody that wanted to really choose an area to live in where the schools might actually help their kids get into a quality college has NEVER considered that to be a desirable choice. Sure some Proviso grads back in the days wheen there still active dairy farms in eastern DuPage Co might have earn MDs at UofI while the kids at the then "rural" high schools still had 4H clubs but you might as well as well be talking about "whale oil lamp" era...
There are no "guaranteed stable" schools either -- the dunderheads that flushed too many top notch teachers out of York with overly sweetened retireement incentives in the name of "reducing current salaries" also end up knocking their school out of contention for "Top Tier" that it once held and even with rather nice support from the community for renewed emphasize there are no signs it is going to "bump off" the other suburban schools like Stevenson that have taken its place.
I've seen lots of changes in Chicago and the suburbs but unless you are a subsriber to the nuttiness of a Al Sharpton or some other such lunatic it is ridiculous to think that pigmentation is more a factor than de-industrialization. Do the math -- the Western Electric plant in Cicero once had 45,000 workers. There is now a strip mall that probably even in the biggest holiday shopping season might have a few dozen workers. Those 45,000 workers earned top notch IBEW salaries and had massive purchasing power at a time when the rest of the globe was largely living in squallor or rebuilding from wold wars. There was a similarly massive labor force in South Holland building heavy equipment, now it it probably has less economic activity than your average WalMart, no doubt the remnants of liquor free ordinances and even zoning regulations against condo / apartments contribute to the lack of commerce. There are similar stories all around the US -- the whole state of Ohio was once a power house of industrialization as were many parts of Michigan and Pennsylvannia. Remember too all these states were relatively free from the kinds of institutionalized racism that is the legacy of the post-Civil War era southern states...
Funny you mention Broadview -- it remains the technical headquarters of the vital Bosch Automotive Group and in some ways highlights the challenges of how even "responsible corporate citizen" type companies simply have to adjust their workforce to the reality of the global marketplace. The growth countries are not the US or Europe, but former third world countries and emerging economies. The kinds of even "executive talent" these companies will look for are probably more likely to be somebody born to another globe trotter executive in Asia than somebody whose parents left Poland or Mexico and settled in Franklin Park...
Racial make-up of the US is largely irrelevent compared to the forces reshaping the rest of the globe.
Last edited by chet everett; 07-02-2014 at 06:19 PM..
Back when Western Electric was still building analog telephones in Cicero and kids could waltz out of Proviso East into a job that would enable them to buy a muscle car with a few months of wage and keep the tank filled at a nickle a gallon it might have been "good" but beleive me, anybody that wanted to really choose an area to live in where the schools might actually help their kids get into a quality college has NEVER considered that to be a desirable choice. Sure some Proviso grads back in the days wheen there still active dairy farms in eastern DuPage Co might have earn MDs at UofI while the kids at the then "rural" high schools still had 4H clubs but you might as well as well be talking about "whale oil lamp" era...
There are no "guaranteed stable" schools either -- the dunderheads that flushed too many top notch teachers out of York with overly sweetened retireement incentives in the name of "reducing current salaries" also end up knocking their school out of contention for "Top Tier" that it once held and even with rather nice support from the community for renewed emphasize there are no signs it is going to "bump off" the other suburban schools like Stevenson that have taken its place.
I've seen lots of changes in Chicago and the suburbs but unless you are a subsriber to the nuttiness of a Al Sharpton or some other such lunatic it is ridiculous to think that pigmentation is more a factor than de-industrialization. Do the math -- the Western Electric plant in Cicero once had 45,000 workers. There is now a strip mall that probably even in the biggest holiday shopping season might have a few dozen workers. Those 45,000 workers earned top notch IBEW salaries and had massive purchasing power at a time when the rest of the globe was largely living in squallor or rebuilding from wold wars. There was a similarly massive labor force in South Holland building heavy equipment, now it it probably has less economic activity than your average WalMart, no doubt the remnants of liquor free ordinances and even zoning regulations against condo / apartments contribute to the lack of commerce. There are similar stories all around the US -- the whole state of Ohio was once a power house of industrialization as were many parts of Michigan and Pennsylvannia. Remember too all these states were relatively free from the kinds of institutionalized racism that is the legacy of the post-Civil War era southern states...
Funny you mention Broadview -- it remains the technical headquarters of the vital Bosch Automotive Group and in some ways highlights the challenges of how even "responsible corporate citizen" type companies simply have to adjust their workforce to the reality of the global marketplace. The growth countries are not the US or Europe, but former third world countries and emerging economies. The kinds of even "executive talent" these companies will look for are probably more likely to be somebody born to another globe trotter executive in Asia than somebody whose parents left Poland or Mexico and settled in Franklin Park...
Racial make-up of the US is largely irrelevent compared to the forces reshaping the rest of the globe.
Certainly that (the fall in industrial jobs) can very well be applied to most neighborhoods and cities (Detroit and Gary are great examples), this is not entirely true especially for areas surrounding more dangerous areas. Bellwood and Hillside aren't and really have never been any more reliant on "industrial jobs" than any other nearby suburb. The well brought up kids in Western Springs and Downers Grove aren't getting "factory jobs" or anything like that straight out of HS either. It's straight to the fast food/ retail industry, just like teens in Maywood. Of course, DG and Western Springs are solidly white collar neighborhoods, the part of LGP and Brookfield I mentioned earlier are solidly blue collar, increasingly working class families/ couples. And if those couples/ families come in as a certain minority group at a very fast rate, you'll probably see many white families leaving that area. That's what has happened in many U.S. cities. Hey, I HATE Al Sharpton, but it's true that demographics shift happen at fast rates in some cases, notably in areas that are more blue collar.
Very true. Many of the "nicer" homes in Maywood are now boarded up, poorly treated, and vacant. It's truly sad.
Or subidivded into 3 or 4 apartments.
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The record of decline is really pretty clear...
