Univ of North Carolina/Kenan Institute CSA/MSA: Mid-2023 GDP Growth Rate Estimates (best, better)

[18Montclair]

Extremely Interesting stuff. for GDP geeks.

1. In January, they estimated many major areas would see GDP contractions, but this adjustment shows every major area posting GDP growth! That is awesome.

So based on their adjustments, I recalculated their 2023 projections and come up with this list of the BIG regional economies $300B+

Estimated Mid-2023 GDP:
$2.563T--New York CSA
$1.607T--Los Angeles CSA
$1.502T--San Francisco CSA
$991B----Washington CSA
$887B----Chicago CSA
$851B----Boston CSA
$721B----Dallas CSA
$626B----Houston CSA
$623B----Seattle CSA
$609B----Philadelphia CSA
$594B----Atlanta CSA
$517B----Miami CSA
$378B----Detroit CSA
$365B----Minneapolis CSA
$365B----Phoenix CSA
$358B----Denver CSA
$309B----San Diego MSA

1. DC will likely hit $1T some time this year or next
2. Boston is nipping at Chicago's heels
3. Seattle is on the verge of surpassing Houston

In January, they estimated the Bay Area would grow at the fastest rate and Austin would be 2nd, now they've switched the two areas.

Adjusted 2023 GDP Growth Rate:
+3.7%--Austin MSA
+3.6%--San Francisco CSA
+3.0%--Raleigh CSA
+2.7%--Seattle CSA
+2.6%--Nashville CSA
+2.4%--Dallas CSA
+2.4%--Salt Lake City CSA
+2.4%--San Antonio MSA
+2.2%--Portland CSA
+2.1%--Charlotte CSA
+2.1%--New Orleans CSA
+2.1%--Oklahoma City CSA
+2.0%--Boise CSA
+1.9%--Phoenix CSA
+1.9%--San Diego MSA
+1.8%--Atlanta CSA
+1.8%--Los Angeles CSA
+1.8%--Orlando CSA
+1.8%--Tampa MSA
+1.8%--Washington CSA
+1.6%--Columbus CSA
+1.6%--Denver CSA
+1.6%--Fresno CSA
+1.6%--Houston CSA
+1.5%--Boston CSA
+1.5%--Jacksonville CSA
+1.5%--Sacramento CSA
+1.4%--Tulsa CSA
+1.3%--Kansas City CSA
+1.3%--Las Vegas CSA
+1.3%--Miami CSA
+1.3%--Minneapolis CSA
+1.3%--Pittsburgh CSA
+1.2%--Buffalo CSA
+1.2%--Indianapolis CSA
+1.1%--Albuquerque CSA
+1.1%--Cincinnati CSA
+1.1%--New York CSA
+1.0%--Birmingham CSA
+1.0%--Cleveland CSA
+0.8%--Chicago CSA
+0.8%--Rochester CSA
+0.8%--St Louis CSA
+0.8%--Tucson CSA
+0.5%--Milwaukee CSA
+0.5%--Philadelphia CSA
+0.5%--Virginia Beach CSA
+0.3%--Detroit CSA
+0.1%--Memphis CSA


https://kenaninstitute.unc.edu/comme...rities-remain/

[masssachoicetts]

Boston seems a bit high.. nearly as much as Chicago? Really?

Also SF growing at 3.6% seems scary high.

[18Montclair]

I actually think long term annual nominal growth rates has Miami besting the Bay Area by 0.1%---8.61% annual in SoFla vs 8.60% for the Bay Area, both figures are astounding, Seattle and Atlanta will be in the 6 percent range---otherwise using Kenan's data to estimate future growth, I can see DC, Chicago and Boston all reaching $1T by 2027, The Bay Area will actually edge past LA and Seattle will be just behind Dallas--but Miami will be rising very fast.

---2022-----2023-------------------------------2024------2025-----2026------2027
$2.422T-----$2.563T--New York CSA---------$2.712T---$2.870T--$3.039T---$3.215T
$1.510T-----$1.607T--Los Angeles CSA------$1.708T---$1.815T--$1.938T--$2.070T
$1.383T-----$1.502T--San Francisco CSA----$1.631T---$1.771T--$1.923T---$2.088T
$940B-------$991B----Washington CSA------$1.044T---$1.101T--$1.161T---$1.223T
$837B-------$887B----Chicago CSA----------$939B------$995B---$1.094T--$1.117T
$808B-------$851B----Boston CSA-----------$896B------$943B---$994B-----$1.046T
$682B-------$721B----Dallas CSA------------$762B------$805B---$851B-----$900B
$598B-------$626B----Houston CSA----------$665B------$685B---$718B-----$751B
$583B-------$623B----Seattle CSA-----------$665B------$710B---$759B-----$811B
$588B-------$609B----Philadelphia CSA------$630B-----$653B---$676B------$700B
$559B-------$594B----Atlanta CSA-----------$631B-----$670B----$712B-----$763B
$476B-------$517B----Miami CSA------------$561B-----$609B----$662B------$719B

Of course, these are just projections---a stock market crash, housing crash, war, pandemic, etc could upend everything, so this is amusing to look at, but take it all with a grain of salt.

[Joakim3]

*The DC CSA is combine with Baltimore*

But yeah, the region is an economic monster

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

I actually think long term annual nominal growth rates has Miami best the Bay Area by 0.1%---8.61% annual in SoFla vs 8.60% for the Bay Area, both figures are astounding, otherwise using Kenan's data to estimate future growth, I can see DC, Chicago and Boston all reaching $1T by 2027, The Bay Area will actually edge past LA and Seattle will be just behind Dallas--but Miami will be rising very fast.

---2022-----2023-------------------------------2024------2025-----2026------2027
$2.422T-----$2.563T--New York CSA---------$2.712T---$2.870T--$3.039T---$3.215T
$1.510T-----$1.607T--Los Angeles CSA------$1.708T---$1.815T--$1.938T--$2.070T
$1.383T-----$1.502T--San Francisco CSA----$1.631T---$1.771T--$1.923T---$2.088T
$940B-------$991B----Washington CSA------$1.044T---$1.101T--$1.161T---$1.223T
$837B-------$887B----Chicago CSA----------$939B------$995B---$1.094T--$1.117T
$808B-------$851B----Boston CSA-----------$896B------$943B---$994B-----$1.046T
$682B-------$721B----Dallas CSA------------$762B------$805B---$851B-----$900B
$598B-------$626B----Houston CSA----------$665B------$685B---$718B-----$751B
$583B-------$623B----Seattle CSA-----------$665B------$710B---$759B-----$811B
$588B-------$609B----Philadelphia CSA------$630B-----$653B---$676B------$700B
$559B-------$594B----Atlanta CSA-----------$631B-----$670B----$712B-----$763B
$476B-------$517B----Miami CSA------------$561B-----$609B----$662B------$719B

Of course, these are just projections---a stock market crash, housing crash, war, pandemic, etc could upend everything, so this is amusing to look at, but take it all with a grain of salt.

I’m confused, Boston is growing at twice the rate of Chicago but it doesn’t close the gap at all (actually falls slightly behind)

Also how good are these people compared to the Fed in calculating GDP?

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by masssachoicetts

Boston seems a bit high.. nearly as much as Chicago? Really?

Also SF growing at 3.6% seems scary high.

Because CSA’s are nonsense

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

I’m confused, Boston is growing at twice the rate of Chicago but it doesn’t close the gap at all (actually falls slightly behind)

Yes and this is a duo we'll have to watch closely to see if the numbers bear out--however when calculating their adjusted 2023 report vs their 2022 report, this is the result:

2022-2023
Chicago-+$50B---+5.97% nominal rate
Boston--+$43B---+5.32% nominal rate

Also how good are these people compared to the Fed in calculating GDP?

Actually pretty spot on as far as i can tell--they changed their tune on growth ahead of the fed doing so a few months later, so that is impressive.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by 18Montclair

Yes and this is a duo we'll have to watch closely to see if the numbers bear out--however when calculating their adjusted 2023 report vs their 2022 report, this is the result:

2022-2023
Chicago-+$50B---+5.97% nominal rate
Boston--+$43B---+5.32% nominal rate


Actually pretty spot on as far as i can tell--they changed their tune on growth ahead of the fed doing so a few months later, so that is impressive.

So Boston’s 2022 gdp got adjusted down or do they so regional inflation for Bostons 1.5% vs Chicagos 0.8% growth rate?

[18Montclair]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

So Boston’s 2022 gdp got adjusted down or do they so regional inflation for Bostons 1.5% vs Chicagos 0.8% growth rate?

No, Boston wasnt adjusted down, but they had Chicago actually shrinking---so I had to return that deficit to Chicago and add 0.8% on top of that.

[18Montclair]

we'll see how close they were for 2022 in DEC when bea.gov releases actual govt data--