The future of Columbus (Cleveland, Cincinnati: neighborhoods, living, rail)

[mrman7]

Hi everyone,

I'm curious what you people think the city of Columbus will be like in about 20 years. In detail, what do you think the population will be like, if it will be even more nationally known, the transportation system, entertainment etc...? Do you think Columbus will have more of an urban/big city feel to it compared to now?

[jbcmh81]

Here's what I'm expecting, just based on current trends, which will obviously change over 20 years.

City
2011 Population: 797K
2032 Population: Around 1.0-1.05 Million, maybe a bit more.

County
2011 Population: 1.19 Million
2032 Population: 1.4-1.6 Million

Metro
2011 Population: 1.86 Million
2032 Population: 2.35-2.60 Million, again maybe a bit more.

So a lot more people overall. Columbus has had very steady double digit growth for 30 years now, but I think the larger it gets and the more attention it receives, it might pick up in speed. I could see 15% growth rates the next few decades.

City area size will grow to about 240 square miles from its current 220 or so. Density will increase from 3,600 to between 4,000-4,500.

City Demographics
2032
White: 45-49%
Black: 30-35%
Asian: 6-8%
Hispanic: 10-12%

This compared to 2010's demographics of White: 59%, Black 29%, Asian: 4%, Hispanic: 5.6%. So an increasingly diverse population.

Some developments I see happening are:
-Several significant skyline additions in the form of highrises.
-An expanded mass transit system, likely rail of some kind. BRT is already being planned as well.
-Downtown population at least doubles, if not triples from its current level (6,500 or so).
-Franklinton becomes the next Short North-style neighborhood, especially the eastern half.
-The city gains another pro-sports team
-The city gains another arts amenity or two, perhaps a symphony, or another art museum of some kind, etc.

[mrman7]

Thank you jbcmh81 for your thorough reply. Very interesting data approximations.

[JohnDBaumgardner]

Having been a former resident and a staunch advocate of Columbus, I would think that Columbus will continue to grow ... I'm not sure that it will ever become prominent enough to gain more national awareness, to be on the same stage as Cleveland or Cincinnati. Urban charm or character .... hmmmmmmmmm? Well, there are pockets of the city that already have urban charms and grit - areas such as Olde Towne East, Linden and Harrison West have that kind of appeal and vast potential. German Village is in a class all its own - absolutely urban, charming and there's nothing else like it in the Midwest. I don't see Columbus adding to its urban vibe, as its not something you can just build or create, then badge it as being an "urban district" - this is normally borne out of decades of history.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by JohnDBaumgardner

Having been a former resident and a staunch advocate of Columbus, I would think that Columbus will continue to grow ... I'm not sure that it will ever become prominent enough to gain more national awareness, to be on the same stage as Cleveland or Cincinnati. Urban charm or character .... hmmmmmmmmm? Well, there are pockets of the city that already have urban charms and grit - areas such as Olde Towne East, Linden and Harrison West have that kind of appeal and vast potential. German Village is in a class all its own - absolutely urban, charming and there's nothing else like it in the Midwest. I don't see Columbus adding to its urban vibe, as its not something you can just build or create, then badge it as being an "urban district" - this is normally borne out of decades of history.

You don't think that if the city hits a million people, which is highly likely by 20 years, that it won't gain anymore national attention, especially compared to Cincinnati and Cleveland? It's likely that the metro will be larger than Cleveland's by then and pretty near Cincinnati's. There's nothing to indicate that I can see that would stop Columbus from gaining more ground on the national scene and I think it would actually be pretty impossible that it doesn't.

The Short North largely was revitalized in 20 years, so I'm not sure why other neighborhoods couldn't do it in that time. Certainly Downtown, Franklinton and Weinland Park all come to mind as improving urban areas. Again, it just seems completely unrealistic to expect the city to remain static in status and development for 20 years, all while adding a lot more diversity and people.

[dxdtdemon]

How many miles of bike lanes do you predict will be in existence then?

[Natural510]

It all depends whether the city grows inwardly rather than outwardly.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

You don't think that if the city hits a million people, which is highly likely by 20 years, that it won't gain anymore national attention, especially compared to Cincinnati and Cleveland? It's likely that the metro will be larger than Cleveland's by then and pretty near Cincinnati's. There's nothing to indicate that I can see that would stop Columbus from gaining more ground on the national scene and I think it would actually be pretty impossible that it doesn't.

The Short North largely was revitalized in 20 years, so I'm not sure why other neighborhoods couldn't do it in that time. Certainly Downtown, Franklinton and Weinland Park all come to mind as improving urban areas. Again, it just seems completely unrealistic to expect the city to remain static in status and development for 20 years, all while adding a lot more diversity and people.

Population size really doesn't mean anything in terms of national perception. Boston only has 600,000 some in the city. Columbus proper is more populated than Boston, but which has a monster profile and which doesn't? Indianapolis and Jacksonville are approaching 1 million and will likely hit it a little sooner than Cbus, but does anyone think about Indy or Jacksonville ever outside of an NFL context? I would say no probably not. I bet more people nationwide can tell you more stuff about Cleveland than Jacksonville.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

Population size really doesn't mean anything in terms of national perception. Boston only has 600,000 some in the city. Columbus proper is more populated than Boston, but which has a monster profile and which doesn't? Indianapolis and Jacksonville are approaching 1 million and will likely hit it a little sooner than Cbus, but does anyone think about Indy or Jacksonville ever outside of an NFL context? I would say no probably not. I bet more people nationwide can tell you more stuff about Cleveland than Jacksonville.

Boston has a significantly larger metro and is a much older city, so that's a terrible comparison. And the question was not whether Columbus will be at the forefront of the national stage (it won't be), only whether or not it gains in reputation as it becomes larger and more developed. Considering it's already happening, adding another 500K-600K people will help. It also depends on what all those people bring to the city in terms of development, art, etc. But to honestly suggest that absolutely nothing will change in the next 20 years for Columbus is pretty absurd.

I actually disagree. I don't think people really know anything more about present-day Cleveland than they do Jacksonville. Most perceptions of Cleveland are based on what the city was like 25 years ago when it was in freefall decline instead of the revitalizing city it is now.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Natural510

It all depends whether the city grows inwardly rather than outwardly.

I would say that that's exactly the way it's growing right now and probably for the better part of 5 years now. Annexation rates have been slowing down since the 1960s, and if you look at all the new projects taking place, they're almost entirely within the old 1950 boundaries, which includes all of the Downtown and the old street-car suburbs. I can count on one hand how many new surburban developments I've heard about in the last few years. Whether or not the far suburban growth comes back full force remains to be seen, and if it does, it won't just be in Columbus. However, even if that happens, I don't think we'll see it at the expense of the urban core like we did the last 50-60 years, and I think sprawl will be at least better managed now, such as with Dublin's plan. Urban living (and revitalization) is here to stay for the forseeable future.