Article: Michigan's Brain Drain is back, as best and brightest leave state (Detroit: movers, how much)

[usroute10]

https://www.bridgemi.com/guest-comme...-spirit-giving

Early data indicate those who are leaving the state tend to be younger and more educated, exactly the sort of residents Michigan leaders want to attract.

Those leaving Michigan had a median age of just under 30 years old and more than 45 percent have a college degree. Compare that to non-movers: Their median age is 43 and 28.5 percent have a college degree.

Other sobering statistics:

Nationwide, immigration is down 41 percent, or more than 451,000 people since 2016.

Michigan has felt that decline too, with international immigration falling 52 percent to just 13,146, the lowest number in decades.

Nationally, as Frey noted, Michigan is not alone when it comes to out-migration. A lot of states are net losers to other states, including New York and California, which saw over 200,000 more people leave the state than come to it.

And in the Midwest, Illinois is losing over 100,000 a year to other states; five states lost more than Michigan. In the Midwest, only Indiana has had a net gain from other states.

However, places like California also gained population from other sources. For instance, California, which has four times the population of Michigan, had more than 180,000 more births than deaths from 2018 to 2019.

That’s a natural increase that was 13 times larger than Michigan’s natural increase. And California still had over 74,000 immigrants, nearly six times more than Michigan.

So overall, despite losses to other states, California has grown 6.1 percent since 2010; Michigan just 1 percent.

[DTWflyer]

I think the link got messed-up:
https://www.bridgemi.com/quality-lif...st-leave-state

Honestly, there is nothing really all that surprising in the article. Nothing that many of us didn't already know and have observed.

A few things are happening here:

- Young, educated, upwardly-mobile people are the ones mostly likely to move about, find job opportunities, and have a bit of wanderlust. Of course those under 30 that don't have spouses, families, children, mortages or other things are mostly like to move around. That hasn't changed and isn't going to change anytime soon. On the converse, those in the state who don't have a college education, don't have the income are less likely to move whether out of economic reasons or lack of motivation.

- We are seeing the tail-end of the baby-boomer effect and when Michigan was still a destination state up through the late-90s and those peoples' - late boomers / early X'ers are now the ones graduating college and leaving. There was a glut of childern in the baby boom era post-WWII and a second wave of a glut of children when the boomers had children, these are alot of the young educated ones leaving the state.

- We have 2 world-class research universities that attract some of the biggest employers from all over the country coming and seeking college graduates, at both University of Michigan & Michigan State, and a lesser extend at other state universities.

Like the article mentions, during the early 2000s the brain-drain was primarily from those graduating and there were limited job opportunities. From around 2008-2011 it was not just that but also those that stayed were losing their jobs and moving out of state. I had a lot of friends that were employed primarily in auto, in their late 20's that either directly lost their job or took buy-outs and left the state in this timeframe when the auto industry was imploding. They are now long-gone and have no desire to return to Michigan.

Now in the past 5-7 years, the job market has picked-up so how much of the brain drain is because they want to leave out of spreading their wings, explore the world, don't find the region desirable, or can't find a job opportunity.

In my observation, there currently are plenty of opportunities here if they want to stay, but many are choosing to leave to seek out perceived better places to live/work/play in their twenties.

That said, I see a big looming issue that is going to rear its head within the next 10 years in this state - elderly care and/or retiree flight. With all the brain-drain, we have a lot of cases where the parents are still living in Michigan and either close to retirement or retired and enjoying their healthy golden years. Their children now all live out of state, now starting families of their own. Either the grandparents are going to be moving closer to their children/grandchildren, or the children are going to be moving back to Michigan. Who is going to care for them as they age with no children in-state?

[Coldjensens]

if climate predictions prove true and we continue to see weather lake the past year (Michigan more pleasant and most other states much less pleasant) that may reverse somewhat or maybe a lot.

This certainly has been a remarkable winter for us.

[DTWflyer]

This winter is tracking pretty close to winter 2011-2012 that was pretty non-existant other than like 1-2 snowfalls with a lot of 40/50s in-between and then a 3-4 week stretch of 70/80s in March.

Seriously, our only big snow event so far was in November.
I've been running outside all Dec & Jan and even in shorts last week.
Next week looks more like winter temps, but 20/30s is a lot better then the sub-zero stretches we've had the past few winters.

[Coldjensens]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

This winter is tracking pretty close to winter 2011-2012 that was pretty non-existant other than like 1-2 snowfalls with a lot of 40/50s in-between and then a 3-4 week stretch of 70/80s in March.

Seriously, our only big snow event so far was in November.
I've been running outside all Dec & Jan and even in shorts last week.
Next week looks more like winter temps, but 20/30s is a lot better then the sub-zero stretches we've had the past few winters.

The summer was unusually nice as well and never got intolerably hot. Especially in comparison to other places that got record high temperatures. Fall kind of started in August.


I have seen studies claiming that in the future Michigan will be the best and possibly one of the few remaining pleasant places to live in the United States due to climate change. Of course that study said it would happen by 2020 or 2025, so maybe it was just more WAGs.

[snoopygirlmi]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

I think the link got messed-up:
https://www.bridgemi.com/quality-lif...st-leave-state

- We are seeing the tail-end of the baby-boomer effect and when Michigan was still a destination state up through the late-90s and those peoples' - late boomers / early X'ers are now the ones graduating college and leaving. There was a glut of childern in the baby boom era post-WWII and a second wave of a glut of children when the boomers had children, these are alot of the young educated ones leaving the state.

It was mostly Gen X that left in the first wave and the older millennials who are now in their late 30's.

In this newer wave, it's the beginning of Gen Z that's heading to college and the younger millennials who in their twenties who are graduating and leaving. (Late Boomers and the early Gen X'ers are their parents. Some of my Gen X friends and relatives are now grandparents.)

While the tide hasn't completely turned, we aren't bleeding young people like we were a decade ago.

There are a lot more younger people who are willing to stay.

Yes, there were the people who left because of the devastation of the auto industry, but in my friend group, they left because they couldn't find work in the areas they were trained for. And when they did find work, they were paid poorly - so they left for better opportunities elsewhere. They went from one bad situation to another. They tried for years to make it work in Michigan for family reasons, but they couldn't find a reasonable work situation to justify the struggle.

[usroute10]

Originally Posted by Coldjensens

The summer was unusually nice as well and never got intolerably hot. Especially in comparison to other places that got record high temperatures. Fall kind of started in August.


I have seen studies claiming that in the future Michigan will be the best and possibly one of the few remaining pleasant places to live in the United States due to climate change. Of course that study said it would happen by 2020 or 2025, so maybe it was just more WAGs.

Michigan shouldn't have to rely on climate change to get people to move here. The quality of our public school system and our higher learning institutions, the relatively lower cost of living, our abundant water recreational resources, the amazing diversity of our economy, our tremendous transportation infrastructure, and our thriving, vibrant dense cities (GR, DET, A2) should be able to draw people and jobs to the region. Obviously, the diversity of our economy, transportation infrastructure, and the quality of our biggest city is a work in progress that has a long way to go.

[DTWflyer]

While I agree and that is what keeps many of us here today, those aren't necessarily the things going through the minds of upwardly mobile twentysomethings. They see big city lights, the pictures of their friends on Insta, the allure of big cosmopolitan cities with endless places to go out, meet others, party, travel.

We recruit a lot of students from U of M, and the students that go there get such an exposure to the broader world now, with all their classmates from outside of Michigan and other parts of the world, all the traveling they do in college, all the internships, study abroads they are so globally focused, its no wonder few really want to stay in Michigan, even if they were from Michigan. These kids know all about Chicago, NYC, SF, LA, DC and their friends go there and these places have such a critical mass and inertia. The graduates we get from U of M that do stay in Detroit tend to typically have family ties to the region but they always seem to have one foot out the door and looking at opportunities in other cities and/or go back to grad school to live in fantasy-student land and hold on to their youth for a few more years.

[DTWflyer]

Originally Posted by snoopygirlmi

It was mostly Gen X that left in the first wave and the older millennials who are now in their late 30's.

In this newer wave, it's the beginning of Gen Z that's heading to college and the younger millennials who in their twenties who are graduating and leaving. (Late Boomers and the early Gen X'ers are their parents. Some of my Gen X friends and relatives are now grandparents.)

While the tide hasn't completely turned, we aren't bleeding young people like we were a decade ago.

There are a lot more younger people who are willing to stay.

Yes, there were the people who left because of the devastation of the auto industry, but in my friend group, they left because they couldn't find work in the areas they were trained for. And when they did find work, they were paid poorly - so they left for better opportunities elsewhere. They went from one bad situation to another. They tried for years to make it work in Michigan for family reasons, but they couldn't find a reasonable work situation to justify the struggle.

Yeah thats pretty much what I meant. We lost of a lot of late X and early millennials due to the eonomy and collapse of the auto industry. Both people that directly lost their jobs and people taking buyouts. I remember in 2007-2008 when the autos offerred several rounds of buyouts, it went to far as basically that pretty much anyone who had been at the company 5 years or more was eliglbe. I had friends who were late 20s/early 30s take buyouts then turn around and land a job out of state immediately and moved and have never looked back. The people in their 40s and 50s had to stay as they had kids and mortages and have become the survivors.

We lost a lot of people during that time that would now be in their early 30s to early 40s.

[Arthur Digby Sellers]

Originally Posted by DTWflyer

While I agree and that is what keeps many of us here today, those aren't necessarily the things going through the minds of upwardly mobile twentysomethings. They see big city lights, the pictures of their friends on Insta, the allure of big cosmopolitan cities with endless places to go out, meet others, party, travel.

We recruit a lot of students from U of M, and the students that go there get such an exposure to the broader world now, with all their classmates from outside of Michigan and other parts of the world, all the traveling they do in college, all the internships, study abroads they are so globally focused, its no wonder few really want to stay in Michigan, even if they were from Michigan. These kids know all about Chicago, NYC, SF, LA, DC and their friends go there and these places have such a critical mass and inertia. The graduates we get from U of M that do stay in Detroit tend to typically have family ties to the region but they always seem to have one foot out the door and looking at opportunities in other cities and/or go back to grad school to live in fantasy-student land and hold on to their youth for a few more years.

I work for one of the Big 3 and we recruit aggressively from elite coastal schools. We have a special program for these grads where they make a LOT of money out of the gate and then are elevated into management after a few years as long as they perform. Despite the money we literally throw at them along with the promise of relatively quick career advancement (quicker than they would receive working at most tech companies) its still incredibly difficult to get these recruits because they don't want to live in the Upper Midwest.