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Location: Was Midvalley Oregon; Now Eastside Seattle area
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Being retired and with enough retirement and at 70/73,
But now plans are squashed and I can't even spend money on eating out.
This means that there is more money in circulation for non scarce commodities/goods/services- thus possible Inflation.
Or since there is now an excess of goods/services, at any price (elastic pricing) could we see, deflation?
I am thinking moderate Inflation, in durables. But I am also thinking moderate deflation in consumables.
JMO,
YourMoneyMattersMayVary,
Shop-till-you-drop but nowhere to put it or show it off.
As the pandemic of CoVid19 takes hold, will USA see Inflation or Deflation?
I remain unconvinced that the CV is going to be as big a deal for the general public as many people seem to think. However, its effect, if any, on the economy is likely to be deflationary. When people curtail activities and therefore their spending, businesses suffer. This means that people who work at these businesses suffer financially, which in turn means that dollars are more valuable.
Quality brand goods have been rising in costs for a long time. Comparable lower-quality brands have been rising more slowly but the quality had been declining. You trade down in quality for worse fit, less durability, and limited styles. In the government's hedonic adjustment, this trade off does not exist. Everything is the same according to them. Burgers are the same as filet mignon.
I think short-term some items might be scarce, but I think it will be over by the end of Spring in Asia. It is already declining in China because of the quarantining. That's the same thing that happened when they culled poultry to contain the bird flu.
King County officials are recommending, though not mandating, that people at a higher risk of developing serious symptoms from COVID-19, the illness caused by the new coronavirus, stay home and avoid large groups.
Patty Hayes, director for Public Health — Seattle & King County, said these recommendations are particularly aimed at people over 60 and those with underlying health conditions. Officials hope the measures will slow the spread of the virus in the county, which had seen 31 cases including nine deaths as of Wednesday afternoon.
“The distancing measures that we’re recommending are essential because we need to slow the spread of disease to the point where our healthcare system can continue to be able to handle the load,” Hayes said.
Officials are advising community groups against holding large gatherings, defined as having more than 10 people, and are encouraging companies to allow remote work. King County Executive Dow Constantine said the county canceled all non-essential large group meetings through the end of March, and employees are encouraged to work remotely if they can.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_o...sed_in_Seattle
King Co, has the some of following major employers (partial): Microsoft*, Amazon*, Starbucks*, T-Mobile*, Zillow*, Redfin*, ATT, Tableau*, Nordstrom*, Getty Images*, Costco*, Expedia*, Gate's Foundation*, Zulily*, U of Washington*, Boeing-Renton, King Co offices & detentions, Federal Offices. SoundTransit*.
*Headquarters in Seattle/KingCounty.
Deflation will arrive in the form of loan write-offs and bubble-assets falling in value. Lots of auto loans and mortgages will be worthless paper if people lose their jobs. The DJIA is ~ 25X higher than it was in 1982, but the GDP of the U.S. is only about 7X higher. Seems like there might be room for a correction...
Inflation might come in the form of shortages of key products only available from Asia. Our ace in the hole is currently the strength of the dollar. If the central banks start flooding the system with “helicopter money” and the Fed joins in, or if China drastically devalues its currency, then all bets are off.
We are headed for a deflationary bust later this year into 2021. It will be epic. Central banks from around the world will all go nuclear to try and stop the deflationary bust so there will be some lag, but we will see a major inflationary cycle by the mid-2020s.
We are headed for a deflationary bust later this year into 2021. It will be epic. Central banks from around the world will all go nuclear to try and stop the deflationary bust so there will be some lag, but we will see a major inflationary cycle by the mid-2020s.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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I suspect an overall balance. This will increase jobs in several segments, much as medical, janitorial, manufacturing of certain high demand items (masks and hand sanitizer). Also, the online retailers (Amazon) will see a huge surge in shoppers ordering that normally would use brick and mortar stores, as will home food delivery services. Then others will suffer severe loss of revenue, already started, such as restaurants, hotels, airlines, transit agencies, Uber/Lyft, and cabs. We have already had a April conference in New Orleans for about 300 people from all over US and Canada cancelled. That affects the hotel, restaurants, airlines, and ground transportation there.
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