Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
There have been many reports on the numbers of Asian women (primarily from China, Japan, So Korea and VietNam) coming to the US to give birth. So, those children would be citizens. Don't know what that means for their original citizenship.
We personally know many Mainland Chinese women who lie at their U.S. visa interview about reasons for visiting the U.S. but the real reason is to give birth to their child in USA so their child can receive U.S. citizenship and their U.S. passport. It acts as a back up plan if things go back in China. Also, China doesn't recognize dual citizens but I know many China passport holders who receive U.S., Canada, Australia, UK passports as adults because of migration, but still don't give up their China passports as China doesn't crack down on this.
Also, I wouldn't listen to anything Gordon Chang writes. He's very biased and anti-Mainland China. He has been for many many years.
I read the news and read actual geopoliticists and economists, rather than watch YouTube conspiracy videos. You might try it some time. In a recent survey, roughly 75% of CEOs with manufacturing operations based in China are looking to pull out. Two-thirds of foreign workers in China at the moment are looking to leave. Without foreign investment and foreign workers, it's like letting the air out of the balloon of China's growth model. I mean, Apple has just shifted iPad production to Vietnam. That's just one of many. The German government has just announced that they will no longer provide insurance for car manufacturers operating in select Chinese provinces. And it goes on and on.
First thing's first. China has been fudging its economic numbers for years. For example, a few years ago, someone did an interesting analysis of Chinese GDP growth numbers and learned something. Year after year, China's stated growth in GDP is roughly twice that of China's growth in electrical production. This is an economic impossibility, for you need a corresponding growth in electricity to run computers, machinery, consumer appliances, and a host of other things. This is especially true when you learn that China's productivity rates have only inched up over the past twenty years.
Second, China is in the middle of a full-bore demographic crash, the likes of which we've never seen in history. It was recently revealed that China overcounted its 2020 census by 100 million, most of that number being in the working age population. So it seems that China actually reached its peak working age population in 2005, not 2014. To make matters worse, there is a huge imbalance between men and women, with three men to every two women, which means population decline will only accelerate. Recent attempts to revoke the One Couple One Child policy had zero effect on the plunging birthrate.
Your post really represents a huge part of the problem. Because people are buying into Chinese propaganda because they are too lazy to do actual reading on the subject. The rise and fall of China is the most consequential issue of the first half of this century, yet people try to reduce it to Tweets.
China's housing sector has completely collapsed due to astonishing overbuilding, creating the biggest economic bubble of all time. Because provincial and local governments rely on property sales for their tax revenue, that means a sharp reduction in local services. Meanwhile, the banking system is showing signs of collapse, especially in the rural provinces, which will eventually start hitting the coastal banks.
As if this weren't bad enough, this has been exacerbated by Zero Covid, which has slashed economic production rates. The reason for the economically destructive Zero Covid policy? China's touted SinoVac vaccine proved to be ineffective against the original strain, and absolutely useless against the later Covid strains.
And, once again, China imports 85% of its energy, most of which comes from the Middle East. In fact, what little they import from Siberian oil fields is problematic, given how Western firms have pulled out from managing those and the Russians completely lack the technical ability.
In other words, read the news, man.
And you are only reading from sources that are China hawks in the likes of Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, so you're in your own little echo chamber.
May I ask how old you are?
And you are only reading from sources that are China hawks in the likes of Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, so you're in your own little echo chamber.
May I ask how old you are?
I don't think I understand where you are coming from.
It seems to me Minivandriver has good information. Which writers seriously challenge Peter Zeihan? I ask because I have followed his work and if there is a challenge I would like to read it.
And you are only reading from sources that are China hawks in the likes of Gordon Chang and Peter Zeihan, so you're in your own little echo chamber.
May I ask how old you are?
Not much of a refutation, given how you can't seem to offer up any counter arguments.
I'm 59 and I have multiple clients with manufacturing operations in China. With the exception of one, they are all moving operations to either India, Vietnam, or even the upper peninsula of Michigan.
And while I read Zeihan and agree with much of what he has to say--chiefly because most of his broad predictions have come true--I also read a lot of other sources on the subject. For example, foreign policy journals such as International Security were pointing out the serious contradictions in the Chinese economy more than a decade ago, particularly the demographic crash. I remember sharing one article in particular to my clients who, at the time, thought I was out of my gourd. You know, the same clients who are now pulling up tent stakes in China and moving elsewhere. In fact, here you go:
Demography is destiny. You can't lose 250,000,000 from your work force between 2010 and 2050 and not have serious consequences. One would have to be a complete idiot to ignore how consequential that would be. Even if every single Chinese family started cranking out three kids tomorrow (Which they won't. When China loosened the One Couple One Child policy, birth rates have declined even further), the productivity hit will be enormous.
Last edited by MinivanDriver; 06-04-2022 at 07:12 AM..
I read the news and read actual geopoliticists and economists, rather than watch YouTube conspiracy videos. You might try it some time. In a recent survey, roughly 75% of CEOs with manufacturing operations based in China are looking to pull out. Two-thirds of foreign workers in China at the moment are looking to leave. Without foreign investment and foreign workers, it's like letting the air out of the balloon of China's growth model. I mean, Apple has just shifted iPad production to Vietnam. That's just one of many. The German government has just announced that they will no longer provide insurance for car manufacturers operating in select Chinese provinces. And it goes on and on.
First thing's first. China has been fudging its economic numbers for years. For example, a few years ago, someone did an interesting analysis of Chinese GDP growth numbers and learned something. Year after year, China's stated growth in GDP is roughly twice that of China's growth in electrical production. This is an economic impossibility, for you need a corresponding growth in electricity to run computers, machinery, consumer appliances, and a host of other things. This is especially true when you learn that China's productivity rates have only inched up over the past twenty years.
Second, China is in the middle of a full-bore demographic crash, the likes of which we've never seen in history. It was recently revealed that China overcounted its 2020 census by 100 million, most of that number being in the working age population. So it seems that China actually reached its peak working age population in 2005, not 2014. To make matters worse, there is a huge imbalance between men and women, with three men to every two women, which means population decline will only accelerate. Recent attempts to revoke the One Couple One Child policy had zero effect on the plunging birthrate.
Your post really represents a huge part of the problem. Because people are buying into Chinese propaganda because they are too lazy to do actual reading on the subject. The rise and fall of China is the most consequential issue of the first half of this century, yet people try to reduce it to Tweets.
China's housing sector has completely collapsed due to astonishing overbuilding, creating the biggest economic bubble of all time. Because provincial and local governments rely on property sales for their tax revenue, that means a sharp reduction in local services. Meanwhile, the banking system is showing signs of collapse, especially in the rural provinces, which will eventually start hitting the coastal banks.
As if this weren't bad enough, this has been exacerbated by Zero Covid, which has slashed economic production rates. The reason for the economically destructive Zero Covid policy? China's touted SinoVac vaccine proved to be ineffective against the original strain, and absolutely useless against the later Covid strains.
And, once again, China imports 85% of its energy, most of which comes from the Middle East. In fact, what little they import from Siberian oil fields is problematic, given how Western firms have pulled out from managing those and the Russians completely lack the technical ability.
In other words, read the news, man.
Over building isn't the word for it. Its absolutely astounding. One thing YouTube is good for is you can view China's empty cities, and there are many of them. Skyscrapers lined up, one after the other completely empty. These empty cities are located all over China.
We personally know many Mainland Chinese women who lie at their U.S. visa interview about reasons for visiting the U.S. but the real reason is to give birth to their child in USA so their child can receive U.S. citizenship and their U.S. passport. It acts as a back up plan if things go back in China. Also, China doesn't recognize dual citizens but I know many China passport holders who receive U.S., Canada, Australia, UK passports as adults because of migration, but still don't give up their China passports as China doesn't crack down on this.
Also, I wouldn't listen to anything Gordon Chang writes. He's very biased and anti-Mainland China. He has been for many many years.
Which is exactly why one would listen to him instead of the CCP propaganda which is prevalent.
Over building isn't the word for it. Its absolutely astounding. One thing YouTube is good for is you can view China's empty cities, and there are many of them. Skyscrapers lined up, one after the other completely empty. These empty cities are located all over China.
Not only that, but many aren't even complete. They are more shells than completed housing units. The statistic I've read from 2019 is that 87% of all home purchases in China are for investment property, second or third residences. As a result, there are an estimated 65 million empty residential units. Yet given that China is going through a demographic crash those units will never be filled. They literally have no real value. It's staggering malinvestment.
Given how year-to-year housing sales have dropped upwards of 50-60% from 2021, this borders on catastrophic. It's the 21st Century's answer to the Dutch Tulip Craze.
Which is exactly why one would listen to him instead of the CCP propaganda which is prevalent.
It's a revealing turn of phrase from him. Anyone who points out the inherent contradictions, corruption, and totalitarianism of Communist China is anti-China.
That being said, Gordon Chang is not the best analyst I've ever read. Sometimes right, sometimes wrong, sometimes overwrought.
That article by Chang only begins to scratch the surface of how broken the Chinese economy truly is. Almost the entirety of local and provincial tax revenues is based on the sale of those same residential real estate development to investors. So when sales crater, so does tax revenue to the local governments. This has a real and consequential impact on government services.
Nor does Chang mention that 80-85% of Chinese energy is imported into the country. Not only does that have to be bought in dollars on the oil markets (And, not that the remimbi has lost 7% of its value versus the dollar), but Russia will be severely hampered in supplying the Chinese soon because all the Western firms that had the technical knowhow to operate Siberian oil and gas production have all pulled out.
Or the fact that 75% of all Western companies surveyed are looking to move operations elsewhere, which means China's development model vanishes into thin air. Or that most foreign workers and consultants are looking to leave this year when their contracts expire.
And the list goes on and on and on. It really is the intersection of a ton of things at once.
Russia was driven to defeat supposedly by Reagan’s Cold War defense spending that Russia/USSR could not match—plus the fact it could not really feed its people
How close is China to that same situation—they have spent so much money building those faux islands for defense purposes and steal so much of other countries’ creativity in many fields because they don’t have the ability (or the govt won’t allow it)
Critics complain the US is such a tiered, unfair wealth hierarchy but China is far worse
It’s just that the government is so draconian that real protest is so unlikely to topple the system
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
