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"About 45% of the 6.5 million Americans who joined the jobless rolls in this downturn lost their positions permanently, according to the Labor Department. The rest included people on temporary layoffs and those who quit jobs. By contrast, people who lost jobs permanently made up about 35% of the unemployed in the 1990-91 and 2001 recessions.
The realignment is touching off a scramble that's turning auto industry veterans into clean-energy pioneers, Wall Street highfliers into math teachers and construction workers into aviation mechanics. According to a CareerBuilder survey this year, 71% of workers who were laid off and haven't found work said they're looking for jobs outside their fields."
No "V" shaped recovery from this bad boy recession.
In those indutries that are now disappearing like in the 70's recession with many industires it will take decades for regions that heavily relied on these industries to get back to more normal levels which may not be the same. Employed but at a much lower pay scale IMO.Rebuilding a region that mainly relied on on dominate industry takes a long time.
I think there was a pretty obvious misallocation of resources over the last decade. Both in terms of people flooding into industries that were seen as sort of "get rich careers" and people flooding into degree programs that are fairly useless from an employment point of view.
I think there was a pretty obvious misallocation of resources over the last decade. Both in terms of people flooding into industries that were seen as sort of "get rich careers" and people flooding into degree programs that are fairly useless from an employment point of view.
It's going to take awhile for things to realign.
I agree, it would actually be a good thing if especially all the FIRE-type jobs of the high-on-the-money-supply days of the mid-2000s never return.
Even the reference to auto industry veterans into clean-energy pioneers is interesting, though it sounds like a journalist anecdote.
I don't think a V-shaped recovery is desirable, more like a W or a sideways S for a spell to give restructuring time to take hold.
I think there was a pretty obvious misallocation of resources over the last decade. Both in terms of people flooding into industries that were seen as sort of "get rich careers" and people flooding into degree programs that are fairly useless from an employment point of view.
Its going to take awhile for things to realign.
I think you hit a good portion of it right on the head, then add into that the demise of cheap crap manufacturing in the US.
Yes, exactly, and that's why a V-shaped recovery would be undesirable, at least in my view.
But the politicians and those surrounding them may have other desires.
It may come as a surprise to some who erroneously believe I'm some rose colored glasses type, but I agree whole heartedly with you. A V shaped recovery, imo, can't happen unless we create some new bubble.
The next couple of years stand to be a rocky road, but no doubt some of those laid off will end up better off in the end. There will always be people moving up and down the ladder.
Off topic, the local newspaper has an article on the front page today that auto dealers here are running out of new cars due to this clunker crap. I'm not a fan of the law but I guess it's moving cars to some extent.
I believe that more bubbles are scheduled to burst. The demise of Medicare in the near future and widespread unemployment should pop the medical bubble. Once international investors pull out and inflation ravages, or interest rates rise the Government employee rolls will have to shrink. This silly clunker nonsense only trades paid-off cars for new ones which are often foreign and often come with new debt. Many of them will be repossessed when the owners lose their jobs unless they are being bought with cash. The biggest bubble of all is the bailout bubble so expect a stock market crash in real or nominal terms this fall. There are no dividends so stocks are still overvalued.
There are no dividends so stocks are still overvalued.
Stocks are forward leaning, today's dividends are not the issue, rather those of tomorrow.
Inflation is no where to be found.
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