30% empty? (Cape Coral, Fort Myers, Bonita Springs: for sale, real estate, foreclosures) - Fort Myers - Cape Coral area - Florida (FL) -Lee County - City-Data Forum

Florida Paradise · 03-22-2011, 06:48 AM

I can't believe that they still think that 30% of residences in Cape Coral & Ft. Myers are empty? Does that mean there are still tons of homes that need to go through the foreclosure process?

nhkev · 03-22-2011, 07:13 AM

I haven't been able to wrap my arms around this one. On the surface it would seem like a really bad stat. There's not enough info. To really determine. I know hiknapster said when she was a census taker they would dig a little deeper to determine if a house was vacant or just 2nd home boarded up with hurricane shudders. But there probably wasn't the amount tthere is now. Also I would guess with the turnover neighbors would have less personal knowledge about other neighbors properties.

When I think on my street at my nw property back when the census was going on there was a house 2 doors down that was being remedied for chinese drywall, there was another one that was 2 down on the other side that is owned by an out of state school teacher, she comes down so sparingly I haven't seen her in 2 yrs and the only reason I know about her is cuz her father lives local and comes by to check on it from time to time. 2 down from that house was a divorced couple that neither decided to keep the house and I think it is for sale. Considering there are only 11 houses on the section of street that would get you close to 30% vacant. Vacant and abandoned are two different things

coastal chic · 03-22-2011, 08:15 AM

My model home is located on a street where there are a lot of snowbird homes. When the census taker came to my door, she asked about all the empty houses around me and had a separate sheet for each home. I was looking at the forms when she was checking the box "VACANT- VACATION OR 2ND HOME". My model home was checked "VACANT- BUSINESS".

So it would make sense that the areas that are SO seasonal (SW Florida) would have the highest % of vacancies. It just goes to show you can't assume all vacancies are contributed to the real estate crash, which is what this article is implying. But, does it say specifically that these numbers are taken from the 2010 census? I'll have to go back and look.

rikoshaprl · 03-22-2011, 08:44 AM

Also, how many vacant homes have sold since the census was taken a year ago.

nhkev · 03-22-2011, 09:43 AM

good point riko... back in august there were 2900 active listings just checked today and there are only 1988 active single family homes in cape coral.

I have wrestled with the idea of what is the magic number of active listings that would make me think Cape Coral had a normal amount of inventory, It started with almost 6000 listings a couple years ago and had little sales, then it had lots of sales and inventories came down. Now there is slightly less than a 4 month supply which by most standards is approaching a sellers market. But this number is more demand driven rather than supply driven. As the inventories come down so will the sales. So until I come up with a better number I think 1600 active listings would be what I would consider the right number for a normal inventory and about 300 a month in sales.

There must be a formula that takes into account population, 2nd home population, vacation rental population, total amount of built homes and a certain percentage that should be available for sale in a normal market.

equalrightsforeveryone · 03-22-2011, 02:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Florida Paradise

I can't believe that they still think that 30% of residences in Cape Coral & Ft. Myers are empty? Does that mean there are still tons of homes that need to go through the foreclosure process?

there are a bunch of them in my neighborhood that are in foreclosure.

hiknapster · 03-22-2011, 03:10 PM

I remember taking the 2000 census in May of that year because it was my first job after my daughter was born in March. I worked in Bonita Springs but I was trained in Fort Myers and we were all given the same instructions.

The census workers really do a detailed job. They even had a special team to count the homeless in the woods and in the parks. They also went out to the migrant camps to count the pickers.

Everyone makes mistakes, but I firmly believe it's going to be fairly accurate. I don't remember. Did the article state all vacant property, including snowbird property or did it mean abandoned homes and units. If it comes from The News Press, well, God bless us all.

It's hard to figure what is correct. I know that there are still an awful lot of foreclosures that are not on the market but I also know that the banks are now diligently working to not put people out of their homes. However, you do have to have a job in order to be able to do a modification and Lee County's unemployment rate is horrible. Activity is picking up, though, even if it is just vacationers coming down it will make a world of difference.

CCRESI · 03-22-2011, 06:36 PM

I wonder if it is from the Census.....would they mail the census form out to a residence and if they got no reply, would that be considered "vacant"? Sounds stupid, but I really don't think a Census is a true picture of anything. Not everyone sends it back, or they lie on it...very few put all the info requested,if any. I didn't even get one, I had to call and request it. Not everyone would go out of their way to do that.
Some of the homes on the market now, in the 100k and below range are "owner or tenant occupied"...So not every foreclosure is empty. hmmmm....wonder what they mean? Probably ran out of news to blast on yahoo. No celebrities were arrested this weekend, that I know of;-/.

hiknapster · 03-22-2011, 07:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CCRESI

I wonder if it is from the Census.....would they mail the census form out to a residence and if they got no reply, would that be considered "vacant"?

NO. That's the entire point of having Census workers. They go back out there and count the people that didn't fill out the form and mail it back. The percentage of people that mailed back the 2010 Census was 74 percent, a surprisingly large number and Cape Coral trended with the national average. 2010 Census Mail Participation Rate Map - 2010 Census

JeffTumbarello · 03-22-2011, 07:40 PM

Typical media coverage. They failed to do the research to understand the methodolgy of what they report. Welcome to cut and paste journalism.

Housing Vacancies and Homeownership - Annual 2010: Definitions and Explanations (http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/annual10/ann10def.html - broken link)

Vacant Housing Units. A housing unit is vacant if no one is living in it at the time of the interview, unless its occupants are only temporarily absent. In addition, a vacant unit may be one which is entirely occupied by persons who have a usual residence elsewhere.

They are counting the second homes as vacant.

We did a video about this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5BH8h3WgGVc