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Upstate NY's only hope (and it is a hope that will inevitably come to fruition) is that intra-national migration trends will reverse due to climate change. It is all but certain that they will, but what is less certain is the time frame involved here. If we're talking many decades before domestic migration trends do a 180, then that matters little to those currently living and enduring a place where the prevailing atmosphere is malaise. Trump once famously advised upstate NYers to relocate. It is perhaps the only thing he's said since 2015 with which I haven't disagreed
My friend once told me a story of a co-worker of his (in the profoundly uninspiring industry of insurance sales) one day packed up her belongings on a whim and moved from Buffalo to the much more dynamic Seattle metro area. Her parting words: 'Buffalo is so stale'. 'Buffalo' could've been replaced with 'Upstate NY' and the pronouncement would've been no less accurate
Now, all this being said, I likely will always remain here due to the presence of family and friends. But I operate under no illusions about the QOL on offer
Well, if it were its own state, it would be a top 20 state in population(I believe in GDP, if not, it is close) and some may say higher, as it wouldn't be attached to NYC and its related regulations, etc.
It still has 5 metros in the top 100 in population in the country and its location between 2 nation's capitals and the biggest cities of 2 countries, with other major areas in both countries nearby, is hard to overlook. So, some may view its geographical location as a good thing.
There is also a good water supply and in some metrics, it would likely do pretty well.
So, again, while there is work to do, it has plenty of things to use to its advantage.
Upstate NY's only hope (and it is a hope that will inevitably come to fruition) is that intra-national migration trends will reverse due to climate change. It is all but certain that they will, but what is less certain is the time frame involved here. If we're talking many decades before domestic migration trends do a 180, then that matters little to those currently living and enduring a place where the prevailing atmosphere is malaise. Trump once famously advised upstate NYers to relocate. It is perhaps the only thing he's said since 2015 with which I haven't disagreed
My friend once told me a story of a co-worker of his (in the profoundly uninspiring industry of insurance sales) one day packed up her belongings on a whim and moved from Buffalo to the much more dynamic Seattle metro area. Her parting words: 'Buffalo is so stale'. 'Buffalo' could've been replaced with 'Upstate NY' and the pronouncement would've been no less accurate
Now, all this being said, I likely will always remain here due to the presence of family and friends. But I operate under no illusions about the QOL on offer
What you said did make sense for a long, long time. However, I don't think this is so true in recent years especially when it comes to the larger cities. Almost all of these cities, as in the city proper rather than just the counties they're in alongside their suburbs, in the most recent census have had population growth. For Rochester it was a pretty small one, for Syracuse it was larger, and for Buffalo it was substantial. This is happening under the backdrop of massive cost of living increases in many parts of the US, but it's also happening under the backdrop of some other factors.
One of the major ones is simply cost of living which does impact the quality of life. The cost of living is extremely high and not proportionate to wage increases in a lot of these dynamic places and that's what's weighing on the OP. That cost of living can also render those places far less dynamic than they used to be. Much of Upstate New York is affordable and it's reasonable that with what some of them have, then at least some of them might be considered a good deal and allow you to have a more dynamic life.
Other parts of this are the environmental remediation projects happening for previous pollution and the silver lining of less continued pollution from the thinning of heavy industry. Obviously the job loss from heavy industry was terrible, but it did mean a slowing down of local pollutants and allowed for these remediation projects to greatly help make for better ambient pollution levels.
You also have domestic migration and immigration from various channels, whether sponsored refugee immigration or other forms of immigration attracted to already established communities or return migration from people who had move out or some stay of people even if for a limited time of people attracted for higher education.
This turnaround has been mostly limited to the larger cities and their immediate areas though. The smaller cities / towns out there are for the most part still eating it pretty hard.
Well, if it were its own state, it would be a top 20 state in population(I believe in GDP, if not, it is close) and some may say higher, as it wouldn't be attached to NYC and its related regulations, etc.
It still has 5 metros in the top 100 in population in the country and its location between 2 nation's capitals and the biggest cities of 2 countries, with other major areas in both countries nearby, is hard to overlook. So, some may view its geographical location as a good thing.
There is also a good water supply and in some metrics, it would likely do pretty well.
So, again, while there is work to do, it has plenty of things to use to its advantage.
5 metros in the top 100? Are you including New York City?
What you said did make sense for a long, long time. However, I don't think this is so true in recent years especially when it comes to the larger cities. Almost all of these cities, as in the city proper rather than just the counties they're in alongside their suburbs, in the most recent census have had population growth. For Rochester it was a pretty small one, for Syracuse it was larger, and for Buffalo it was substantial. This is happening under the backdrop of massive cost of living increases in many parts of the US, but it's also happening under the backdrop of some other factors.
One of the major ones is simply cost of living which does impact the quality of life. The cost of living is extremely high and not proportionate to wage increases in a lot of these dynamic places and that's what's weighing on the OP. That cost of living can also render those places far less dynamic than they used to be. Much of Upstate New York is affordable and it's reasonable that with what some of them have, then at least some of them might be considered a good deal and allow you to have a more dynamic life.
Other parts of this are the environmental remediation projects happening for previous pollution and the silver lining of less continued pollution from the thinning of heavy industry. Obviously the job loss from heavy industry was terrible, but it did mean a slowing down of local pollutants and allowed for these remediation projects to greatly help make for better ambient pollution levels.
You also have domestic migration and immigration from various channels, whether sponsored refugee immigration or other forms of immigration attracted to already established communities or return migration from people who had move out or some stay of people even if for a limited time of people attracted for higher education.
This turnaround has been mostly limited to the larger cities and their immediate areas though. The smaller cities / towns out there are for the most part still eating it pretty hard.
Metro Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse all had a small decrease in population between the 2020 Census and the 2023 estimate. Metro Albany gained less than 1%. The losses and gain are small enough that you could basically ignore the changes, but, it's definitely not evidence of growth. The City of Buffalo's population growth from 2010-2020 was largely driven by its being a designated refugee resettlement zone, not so much by voluntary moves from within the country. I'd like to share the optimistic view that you and ckh have, but I just can't, yet anyway
Just found the 5th top 100 upstate metro ckh was referring to: Poughkeepsie-Kiryas Joel-Newburgh. To me, that's greater NYC. Poughkeepsie's further north than I realized, though, being about equidistant between NYC and Albany
Metro Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse all had a small decrease in population between the 2020 Census and the 2023 estimate. Metro Albany gained less than 1%. The losses and gain are small enough that you could basically ignore the changes, but, it's definitely not evidence of growth. The City of Buffalo's population growth from 2010-2020 was largely driven by its being a designated refugee resettlement zone, not so much by voluntary moves from within the country. I'd like to share the optimistic view that you and ckh have, but I just can't, yet anyway
There's enough difference between how the census is taken versus how the estimates are done that the tiny variance for now is hard to ascribe to actual population loss so I'm not putting that much stock in it for now.
Yes, a lot of it is refugee resettlement as well as secondary migration that happens from further immigration after a community establishes itself even when not from official direct refugee resettlement. That is growth though and this new immigration seems to have mostly done a fairly good job of putting people to work and has been ongoing for long enough that you're actually seeing some of these communities open up their own businesses to cater to others in their communities but also open to the larger community. This is what I was pointing to the OP of how the area has changed. There are multiple southeast Asian, East African, and other restaurants in the Syracuse area that were not there before and so there are actually more things to try that he did not have before.
I understand the skepticism as well. A lot of these cities and other industrial cities that got hit hard in the latter half of the 20th century had a lot of heralded projects that didn't do much to reverse the flow. However, the base for population growth and environmental remediation are tangible things that have happened and continue to happen and are part of why I think there can be some measure of optimism. So is the large gap that has opened up in many of the more dynamic areas elsewhere in the country between cost of living and increase in wages. That gap makes having things be dynamic a lot harder than it used to be in those areas, but at the same time this supposedly should make Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, and to a lesser extent Utica and maybe some others, comparatively more attractive.
I do think Albany is in a better position than the others, but I also doubt what the OP is referring to with Central New York is the Albany area.
There's enough difference between how the census is taken versus how the estimates are done that the tiny variance for now is hard to ascribe to actual population loss so I'm not putting that much stock in it for now.
Yes, a lot of it is refugee resettlement as well as secondary migration that happens from further immigration after a community establishes itself even when not from official direct refugee resettlement. That is growth though and this new immigration seems to have mostly done a fairly good job of putting people to work and has been ongoing for long enough that you're actually seeing some of these communities open up their own businesses to cater to others in their communities but also open to the larger community. This is what I was pointing to the OP of how the area has changed. There are multiple southeast Asian, East African, and other restaurants in the Syracuse area that were not there before and so there are actually more things to try that he did not have before.
I understand the skepticism as well. A lot of these cities and other industrial cities that got hit hard in the latter half of the 20th century had a lot of heralded projects that didn't do much to reverse the flow. However, the base for population growth and environmental remediation are tangible things that have happened and continue to happen and are part of why I think there can be some measure of optimism. So is the large gap that has opened up in many of the more dynamic areas elsewhere in the country between cost of living and increase in wages. That gap makes having things be dynamic a lot harder than it used to be in those areas, but at the same time this supposedly should make Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, and to a lesser extent Utica and maybe some others, comparatively more attractive.
I do think Albany is in a better position than the others, but I also doubt what the OP is referring to with Central New York is the Albany area.
This is a little off topic, but since you mentioned the latter half of the 20th century...I'm a fan of Mark Goldman's books on the history of Buffalo. Goldman grew up in NYC, attended I believe NYU for undergrad, then came to Buffalo for grad school. He eventually became a history professor at UB, then opened up a couple bars in downtown Buffalo/Allentown (one of which I frequented for years without knowing I'd later read books written by its owner). I know you're more of a downstater but if either you or ckh were aware of comparable books that analyzed the history of other parts of the state, I'd be interested to hear of them
5 metros in the top 100? Are you including New York City?
Nope, I’m thinking of Buffalo, Rochester, Albany-Schenectady-Troy, Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown and Syracuse.
Well, if you are putting Poughkeepsie with Greater NYC, I believe it is at best in the CSA, but it is its own metro and is “upstate” from NYC, which is where the term comes from and can be tedious to define.
There's enough difference between how the census is taken versus how the estimates are done that the tiny variance for now is hard to ascribe to actual population loss so I'm not putting that much stock in it for now.
Yes, a lot of it is refugee resettlement as well as secondary migration that happens from further immigration after a community establishes itself even when not from official direct refugee resettlement. That is growth though and this new immigration seems to have mostly done a fairly good job of putting people to work and has been ongoing for long enough that you're actually seeing some of these communities open up their own businesses to cater to others in their communities but also open to the larger community. This is what I was pointing to the OP of how the area has changed. There are multiple southeast Asian, East African, and other restaurants in the Syracuse area that were not there before and so there are actually more things to try that he did not have before.
I understand the skepticism as well. A lot of these cities and other industrial cities that got hit hard in the latter half of the 20th century had a lot of heralded projects that didn't do much to reverse the flow. However, the base for population growth and environmental remediation are tangible things that have happened and continue to happen and are part of why I think there can be some measure of optimism. So is the large gap that has opened up in many of the more dynamic areas elsewhere in the country between cost of living and increase in wages. That gap makes having things be dynamic a lot harder than it used to be in those areas, but at the same time this supposedly should make Albany, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse, and to a lesser extent Utica and maybe some others, comparatively more attractive.
I do think Albany is in a better position than the others, but I also doubt what the OP is referring to with Central New York is the Albany area.
This, along with a lot of investment in Downtown(s) and seeing more tangible development taking place, play a part in this.
There has been the people coming from higher cost of living areas or actually staying after college aspects playing a part in some of the optimism as well.
As for the OP, he is likely from the area west of Syracuse. So, a town like Camillus, which is growing a little bit and is a shopping hub, with good schools(West Genesee) could be a good fit.
Metro Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse all had a small decrease in population between the 2020 Census and the 2023 estimate. Metro Albany gained less than 1%. The losses and gain are small enough that you could basically ignore the changes, but, it's definitely not evidence of growth. The City of Buffalo's population growth from 2010-2020 was largely driven by its being a designated refugee resettlement zone, not so much by voluntary moves from within the country. I'd like to share the optimistic view that you and ckh have, but I just can't, yet anyway
Refugees made up only about half of all international immigration to Buffalo, and total foreign immigration only accounted for half of the total increase of population of the metro area (using Census numbers). Buffalo is also very positive for in-state migration, primarily from NYC, many of them foreign-born but not refugees. The growth of the Buffalo area Muslim community has really been astounding, increasing from about 5,000 20 years ago to a reported 100,000 today (per Khalid Qazi in the News, founding president, Muslim Public Affairs Council of WNY), with the number of mosques increasing from 2 to nearly 50 today.
Most of that growth seems to be Bangladeshi from NYC, but not all. Just in the last couple of months 2 Yemeni cafes and a Yemeni restaurant opened in the North Buffalo area, and not a week goes by that another Grand Opening isn't happening for another new business (usually on the East Side) that caters to the Muslim demographic (Buffalo Trade Center Bazaar this week, Apon Supermarket a couple of weeks ago, for example). Maybe not an Austin or Boise kind of growth (professional white people) but bottoms-up growth and investment is happening in (formerly) underserved areas.
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