Why is the White demographic decline the most extreme in Georgia ? (Atlanta: how much, live)

[Dave Coe]

"Counties by decrease in non-Hispanic white % of the population between 2000 and 2020:

1. Rockdale, GA (73% to 26%)
2. Henry, GA (80% to 36%)
3. Douglas, GA (76% to 35%)
4. Manassas Park, VA (67% to 27%)
5. Gwinnett, GA (67% to 32%)
6. Charles, MD (67% to 34%)"



-@SidKhurana3607

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

Why is the white demographic decline the most extreme in Georgia?

"Counties by decrease in non-Hispanic white % of the population between 2000 and 2020:

1. Rockdale, GA (73% to 26%)
2. Henry, GA (80% to 36%)
3. Douglas, GA (76% to 35%)
4. Manassas Park, VA (67% to 27%)
5. Gwinnett, GA (67% to 32%)
6. Charles, MD (67% to 34%)"



-@SidKhurana3607

That’s a really good question which probably solicits a not quite simple answer.

There seem to be numerous recent instances of “extreme white demographic decline” in heavily populated areas all over the country, including in some very notable areas like Florida, Michigan, Texas, the Northeast and (probably most notably) California.

Some very notable factors that seem to have driven the dramatic demographic changes in a state like Georgia include:

> Atlanta’s longstanding status as a popular and massive relocation destination for African-American residents since the Civil Rights Movement era of the 1960’s...

> Atlanta being the site of a very large and very busy airport, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport, a facility which was the busiest passenger airport on the planet between 1998 and 2019...

> Atlanta’s berth as host of the 1996 Summer Olympic Games, an event which combined with the existence of the aforementioned Atlanta Airport to make Atlanta a city/metro of international importance, and a major destination for immigrants from Latin America, Asia, Africa, the Caribbean and Eastern Europe...

> Atlanta’s status as a major multimedia entertainment hub of international influence, first as a hub of Hip-Hop and R&B music production after about 1990, then also as a hub of television and film production after about 2010.

[cwkimbro]

One important thing to always remember with the most/least__county__ in America lists.

Georgia counties are typically found on them for a reason.

They are abnormally small, compared to the rest of the nation. What happens is trends occur on the ground often without reference to political boundaries. A county in Texas might have the same influencing trends within it, but in smaller areas relative to the whole county.

Imagine if Clayton, Fayette, and Henry Country were all one big county. I don't think it means a county with those borders were all be homogeneously the same, rather it would have different trends in different parts of the county that get averaged off.

Imagine if Gwinnett, parts of North Fulton, Forsyth, and Hall counties were a larger county. You wouldn't see as aggressive changes averaging across larger areas.

So our small counties can easily rise to the top of lists, because the demographic trend only needs to cover smaller areas of land.

The other aspect is there is some truth to it. It is real data. We have to have declining populations of white people to end up on that list. The decline is very real. The above is just why we have so many counties that rise to the top of the list when other regions of the country have the same trends. Some of these trends occur elsewhere too and has become very common in '60-'90s era suburbs.

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

One important thing to always remember with the most/least__county__ in America lists.

Georgia counties are typically found on them for a reason.

They are abnormally small, compared to the rest of the nation. What happens is trends occur on the ground often without reference to political boundaries. A county in Texas might have the same influencing trends within it, but in smaller areas relative to the whole county.

Imagine if Clayton, Fayette, and Henry Country were all one big county. I don't think it means a county with those borders were all be homogeneously the same, rather it would have different trends in different parts of the county that get averaged off.

Imagine if Gwinnett, parts of North Fulton, Forsyth, and Hall counties were a larger county. You wouldn't see as aggressive changes averaging across larger areas.

So our small counties can easily rise to the top of lists, because the demographic trend only needs to cover smaller areas of land.

The other aspect is there is some truth to it. It is real data. We have to have declining populations of white people to end up on that list. The decline is very real. The above is just why we have so many counties that rise to the top of the list when other regions of the country have the same trends. Some of these trends occur elsewhere too and has become very common in '60-'90s era suburbs.

Great post.

[Mutiny77]

Another point to keep in mind is that the Census provided more options for people to self-identify by race in 2020 compared to years past so at least a portion of the decrease is likely to be more statistical than anything.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by Mutiny77

Another point to keep in mind is that the Census provided more options for people to self-identify by race in 2020 compared to years past so at least a portion of the decrease is likely to be more statistical than anything.

This is a good point. I wonder if they have any respondents sampled as a panel in the ACS surveys to gauge how much decade-to-decade changes affect the outcome.

[Physics Guy]

I lived in one of those counties from 1999 to 2018.

Another factor is that the numbers given are percentages. So it is a combination of losing white population and gaining non-white population. Rockdale, Henry, and Douglass were all fairly low population counties in 2000. It didn't take much black flight from Clayton and DeKalb counties to really change the percentage numbers in the 2000-2010 time frame.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

I lived in one of those counties from 1999 to 2018.

Another factor is that the numbers given are percentages. So it is a combination of losing white population and gaining non-white population. Rockdale, Henry, and Douglass were all fairly low population counties in 2000. It didn't take much black flight from Clayton and DeKalb counties to really change the percentage numbers in the 2000-2010 time frame.

Those are excellent points about the numbers given being percentages and about it being a combination of losing white population and gaining non-white population.

Though, not all of the black population growth in outlying metro Atlanta suburban counties has been as a result of ‘black flight’ from core metro counties like Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton.

Much (and likely even most) of the robust growth of the black population in outlying metro Atlanta suburban counties appears to have been as a result of black residents moving directly into those areas from other parts of the country (including from the Northeast, the Midwest, California and other parts of the South) and even the world (including the Caribbean and Africa).

Georgia’s black population has ballooned from about 1.737 million (or about 26.82% of the population) in 1990 to more than 3.52 million (or about 32.6% of the state’s population) in 2020, so not all of the population growth in outlying metro Atlanta suburban counties would have been able to have come within the state (the metro Atlanta core).

Much (if not most) of that growth would have had to had come from black residents moving directly into those areas from other states.

[Physics Guy]

Born 2 Roll is correct.

I tend to think in terms of the flight from Clayton and DeKalb because I had a number of coworkers during that stretch that did that exact move but I'm almost certainly overweighting that specific demographic change.

[Born 2 Roll]

Originally Posted by Physics Guy

Born 2 Roll is correct.

I tend to think in terms of the flight from Clayton and DeKalb because I had a number of coworkers during that stretch that did that exact move but I'm almost certainly overweighting that specific demographic change.

You raise an excellent point that ‘black flight’ out of core metro counties like Fulton, DeKalb and Clayton has definitely been an important factor in the growth of the black population in outlying metro Atlanta suburban counties.

But because metro Atlanta is such a massive relocation destination for black residents, a very significant amount of the black population just simply moves into many areas, both urban and suburban.

Even jurisdictions that might experience much out-migration of black residents (particularly the City of Atlanta, South Fulton County, DeKalb County and Clayton County) are still experiencing a very significant amount of black population growth (along with suburban areas like Gwinnett, Cobb, North Fulton, Rockdale, Newton, Henry, Fayette, Douglas and Paulding counties) because such a large number of black residents are constantly moving into the Atlanta metro area as a whole.

Metro Atlanta has experienced so much black population growth (particularly since 1990) that Atlanta now has the largest metropolitan black population in the U.S. outside of New York.

Atlanta has had the second-largest metropolitan black population in the country since passing Chicago back in the early 2010’s.

Metro/micro Areas With Largest African American Population