2020 Georgia Urban Area Populations from US Census Bureau (Atlanta, Columbus: 2013, how much)

[masonbauknight]

The US Census Bureau just released its 2020 urban area figures, generally published two years after the official decennial census.
Takeaway 1: The definition of "urban area" became stricter in 2020: Inhabited areas now must be in closer proximity (1.5 miles or less) to other residential areas compared to 2010. As a rule, this made it more difficult than before for an urban area to post an increase in population or a percentage gain over 10 years.
Takeaway 2: Nonetheless, urban Gainesville was the winner in Georgia, more than doubling in population since 2010. Gainesville now has almost the same urban figure as Columbus. Ten years ago, Columbus and Savannah had very similar urban populations.
Takeaway 3: Urban Augusta, Athens, and especially Savannah grew at higher percentage rates than urban Atlanta did.
Takeaway 4: Warner Robins moved ahead of Macon in urban population, while Athens moved ahead of both Warner Robins and Macon.
Takeaway 5: Albany has lost a significant number of residents since 2010.

The 2020 Georgia top ten:

1. Atlanta, 4,999,259 (+483,840 residents or +10.71% since 2010)
2. Augusta, 431,480 (+44,697, +11.55%)
3. Savannah, 309,466 (+48,789, +18.71%)
4. Columbus, 267,746 (+14,144, +5.58%)
5. Gainesville, 265,218 (+134,372, +102.69%)
6. Athens, 143,213 (+14,459, +11.22%)
7. Warner Robins, 141,132 (+8,023, +6.02%)
8. Macon, 140,111 (+7,741, +5.62%)
9. Albany, 85,960, (–9,819, –10.25%)
10. Valdosta, 77,085 (+316, +0.41%

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

The US Census Bureau just released its 2020 urban area figures, generally published two years after the official decennial census.
Takeaway 1: The definition of "urban area" became stricter in 2020: Inhabited areas now must be in closer proximity (1.5 miles or less) to other residential areas compared to 2010. As a rule, this made it more difficult than before for an urban area to post an increase in population or a percentage gain over 10 years.
Takeaway 2: Nonetheless, urban Gainesville was the winner in Georgia, more than doubling in population since 2010. Gainesville now has almost the same urban figure as Columbus. Ten years ago, Columbus and Savannah had very similar urban populations.
Takeaway 3: Urban Augusta, Athens, and especially Savannah grew at higher percentage rates than urban Atlanta did.
Takeaway 4: Warner Robins moved ahead of Macon in urban population, while Athens moved ahead of both Warner Robins and Macon.
Takeaway 5: Albany has lost a significant number of residents since 2010.

The 2020 Georgia top ten:

1. Atlanta, 4,999,259 (+483,840 residents or +10.71% since 2010)
2. Augusta, 431,480 (+44,697, +11.55%)
3. Savannah, 309,466 (+48,789, +18.71%)
4. Columbus, 267,746 (+14,144, +5.58%)
5. Gainesville, 265,218 (+134,372, +102.69%)
6. Athens, 143,213 (+14,459, +11.22%)
7. Warner Robins, 141,132 (+8,023, +6.02%)
8. Macon, 140,111 (+7,741, +5.62%)
9. Albany, 85,960, (–9,819, –10.25%)
10. Valdosta, 77,085 (+316, +0.41%

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Good to see increases in all but Albany.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by midgeorgiaman

Interesting. Thanks for sharing. Good to see increases in all but Albany.

Sadly, it's not just Albany. All of Southwest Georgia is hurting, even more so than other rural areas across the state.

[midgeorgiaman]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Sadly, it's not just Albany. All of Southwest Georgia is hurting, even more so than other rural areas across the state.

True. I don't know if it will ever change though. While the cost of living is low, there isn't much in the way of job opportunities or cultural amenities in southwest Georgia. I have lived in Georgia 20 years now and have been to Albany twice...both times traveling on my way to somewhere else. I know many people in central Georgia FROM southwest Georgia, but it is rare to hear of the reverse...someone moving TO southwest Georgia.

[cdw1084]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

The US Census Bureau just released its 2020 urban area figures, generally published two years after the official decennial census.
Takeaway 1: The definition of "urban area" became stricter in 2020: Inhabited areas now must be in closer proximity (1.5 miles or less) to other residential areas compared to 2010. As a rule, this made it more difficult than before for an urban area to post an increase in population or a percentage gain over 10 years.
Takeaway 2: Nonetheless, urban Gainesville was the winner in Georgia, more than doubling in population since 2010. Gainesville now has almost the same urban figure as Columbus. Ten years ago, Columbus and Savannah had very similar urban populations.
Takeaway 3: Urban Augusta, Athens, and especially Savannah grew at higher percentage rates than urban Atlanta did.
Takeaway 4: Warner Robins moved ahead of Macon in urban population, while Athens moved ahead of both Warner Robins and Macon.
Takeaway 5: Albany has lost a significant number of residents since 2010.

The 2020 Georgia top ten:

1. Atlanta, 4,999,259 (+483,840 residents or +10.71% since 2010)
2. Augusta, 431,480 (+44,697, +11.55%)
3. Savannah, 309,466 (+48,789, +18.71%)
4. Columbus, 267,746 (+14,144, +5.58%)
5. Gainesville, 265,218 (+134,372, +102.69%)
6. Athens, 143,213 (+14,459, +11.22%)
7. Warner Robins, 141,132 (+8,023, +6.02%)
8. Macon, 140,111 (+7,741, +5.62%)
9. Albany, 85,960, (–9,819, –10.25%)
10. Valdosta, 77,085 (+316, +0.41%

I wonder if they're going to combine Gainesville and Metro Atlanta into one MSA since it appears that Gainesville benefited from the upper part of Gwinnett County.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by cdw1084

I wonder if they're going to combine Gainesville and Metro Atlanta into one MSA since it appears that Gainesville benefited from the upper part of Gwinnett County.

This is something to watch for 2020 and 2030 and the thing I'm watching for most.

I did an analysis of this in a thread a bit over a year ago, along with a few other MSA/CSA border situations across the state using 2010 census commuter data.

Without adding a few specifics, at least 25% of Hall county commuters have to commute into a central county of the Atlanta MSA for it to be included in the Atlanta MSA.

It is included in the CSA if the percentage points of traffic in both directions adds up to 15%.

What I came up with was 15% of commuters into Hall County come from an Atlanta central county.

21.4% of total Hall county commuters commute into an Atlanta central county (a bit over half of those to Gwinnett, others to Forsyth, Fulton, Dekalb, ans a small margin to others).

For MSA inclusion that threshold would need to grow past 25% from 21.4% in 2010, so it is something to watch.

For CSA inclusion the total in/out is 36.4 percentage points, so it's safely a part of the Atlanta CSA with no chance of that changing anytime soon. That threshold needed is 15 percentage points.


Other things to watch:


-Statistically, LaGrange was safely in Atlanta's MSA in 2010. The question is if the new factory in West Point alters commuters in the area near the county border from Alabama (Lee County) or Columbus to cause a change to where LaGrange is included in. The relatively low population and the new high-impact employment site makes aggressive changes over 2010 possible.


-I'm going to be watching if the Bluffton area can cause Savannah and Hilton Head/Beaufort Co. area to be included into a CSA together. I'm leaning towards no, but with some suburban growth it is possible. Bluffton had a huge amount of suburban growth in the last decade. It is perfectly situated for both commuting access to Hilton Head, Beufort, and/or Savannah. The main question is are enough people in that one area commuting to Chatham Co., so they activate the CSA threshold?


-Macon-Warner Robbins had a ways to go before reaching the MSA inclusion threshold, but I want to see how much the gap closes in 2020. in 2010 13.7 of Houston Co. commuters commute to Bibb. It needs to hit 25% for them to be combined.


-We can also see if suburban growth in Southeastern Lee County, AL has been strong enough to cause more commuters traveling into Columbus. I don't believe it will. It has a ways to go in the 2010 data, but it something to watch when the commuter data is released.


-I don't see any change from Athens-Atlanta in the foreseeable future. They barely met the CSA inclusion threshold in 2010 and are far away from any MSA inclusion threshold.

[masonbauknight]

I believe that new MSA and CSA definitions are due from US Census this coming summer? They're usually in three years after the official census, and announced on the White House website. I agree that an Atlanta-Gainesville MSA merger might be most likely of all. It will be interesting to see revised definitions for Georgia.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by cwkimbro

Other things to watch:

-Statistically, LaGrange was safely in Atlanta's MSA in 2010. The question is if the new factory in West Point alters commuters in the area near the county border from Alabama (Lee County) or Columbus to cause a change to where LaGrange is included in. The relatively low population and the new high-impact employment site makes aggressive changes over 2010 possible.

I made a mistake with my acronyms. This should say CSA.

[cwkimbro]

Originally Posted by masonbauknight

I believe that new MSA and CSA definitions are due from US Census this coming summer? They're usually in three years after the official census, and announced on the White House website. I agree that an Atlanta-Gainesville MSA merger might be most likely of all. It will be interesting to see revised definitions for Georgia.

Sounds about right. There is a scheduled population totals for metropolitan areas update scheduled for release between March and May. I'm not positive, but it would make sense if that coincided with the release of the new geographic boundaries that define the metropolitan areas.

Past reference maps were released in February and March in 2020 and 2013, so maybe sooner than summer.

[Atlanta-Kid]

So Macon really isn't a major city anymore...