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I've personally seen the appreciation compared to when I was looking for homes three or four years ago. Johnson City is very well-positioned for continued appreciation in the near-term.
My sister just purchased a new house in the Bluff City region, moving from Johnson City because prices were too competitive and she lost out on 2 or 3 houses. She said her realtor told her that she would regularly show homes to folks from California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, etc., moving to east Tennessee. Pretty amazing how times change.
Growing up in the area, in the late 70s and 80s, it was such an isolated region from the rest of the US--or so it seemed to me and everyone I knew. The outside world didn't really know about east Tennessee and the "tri cities region."
Now, the Johnson City region seems poised to continue to grow well, and it is definitely a destination for retirees and folks who don't have to rely on local high-paying white collar jobs, for relocation.
Johnson City and the surrounding region is definitely one of the most geographically pretty areas in the country.
Do you local natives see this lasting for the long term? I have been researching Tennessee in general for the last 5 years as a retirement destination. I have been traveling there annually for the last 4 years, and have seen most of the state East of I-24 from North to South. I pretty much was ready to settle into the Tri-Cities area right when the real estate explosion happened. I'm interested primarily in rural areas of Carter and Unicoi Counties, and even that went from very attractive to absurd in the last year and a half. If $28K an acre for pasture land, or $250K for a trailer on 3 acres is the new normal, it looks like I have to move on and find another area. I watched a home in Flag Pond that was purchased in May of this year for $219K get relisted 18 days after it sold for $170K more. The price increases that this area is seeing should concern everyone given the fact that the local economy and job market doesn't support that kind of growth. Watching and listening to the speeches given by the federal reserve, it looks like the next 2 years is going to be a very bumpy ride for the economy. I have a trip scheduled for this October to the Tri-Cities that I am considering cancelling because I am now thinking the area is out of my reach. I'm not buying now, but looking to purchase in the next 2-3 years. Any input from locals would be appreciated.
The increase in the housing prices is due almost exclusively to increased population growth which occurred at a time when the area had not had substantial new housing development over the previous decade. That is now changing, with several new developments popping up. I suspect that this will decrease the pace of price increases. A few caveats to that is important, at least in my mind. First, quite a few people come in paying cash for houses right now, so I do expect the interest rate increase to have an impact but not all that much so. Second, as long as the increase in population continues, I don't see the prices going down. Third, I see there to be a considerable disconnect between what people want (space) and what is being built. Thus, I see a continued increase in prices for homes that have a good sized lot and/or vacant land.
Do you local natives see this lasting for the long term? I have been researching Tennessee in general for the last 5 years as a retirement destination. I have been traveling there annually for the last 4 years, and have seen most of the state East of I-24 from North to South. I pretty much was ready to settle into the Tri-Cities area right when the real estate explosion happened. I'm interested primarily in rural areas of Carter and Unicoi Counties, and even that went from very attractive to absurd in the last year and a half. If $28K an acre for pasture land, or $250K for a trailer on 3 acres is the new normal, it looks like I have to move on and find another area. I watched a home in Flag Pond that was purchased in May of this year for $219K get relisted 18 days after it sold for $170K more. The price increases that this area is seeing should concern everyone given the fact that the local economy and job market doesn't support that kind of growth. Watching and listening to the speeches given by the federal reserve, it looks like the next 2 years is going to be a very bumpy ride for the economy. I have a trip scheduled for this October to the Tri-Cities that I am considering cancelling because I am now thinking the area is out of my reach. I'm not buying now, but looking to purchase in the next 2-3 years. Any input from locals would be appreciated.
If I think about it logically, I agree with you - the real estate runups don't seem sustainable. Outside of Johnson City, Bristol, and maybe some of the best mountain views/property in Carter/Unicoi counties, I don't think it is sustainable.
I don't see places Kingsport or many of the smaller towns and rural areas holding their current values. They are areas in decline with no economic base. Rural property that has good mountain views, higher elevation, lake/river access, or some other type of "feature" will likely be fine.
Much of the property appreciation has been due to the lack of building that jchometeam mentioned, as well as low interest rates and pandemic-related factors with people wanting to relocate to red states. The flip side of that is, aside from Johnson City/Gray/Piney Flats and a relative of handful of new developments elsewhere, the housing stock in this area is older and just not that good. Interest rates are rising, the pandemic has eased, and the economy is back to normal.
The increase in the housing prices is due almost exclusively to increased population growth which occurred at a time when the area had not had substantial new housing development over the previous decade. That is now changing, with several new developments popping up. I suspect that this will decrease the pace of price increases. A few caveats to that is important, at least in my mind. First, quite a few people come in paying cash for houses right now, so I do expect the interest rate increase to have an impact but not all that much so. Second, as long as the increase in population continues, I don't see the prices going down. Third, I see there to be a considerable disconnect between what people want (space) and what is being built. Thus, I see a continued increase in prices for homes that have a good sized lot and/or vacant land.
Housing prices have increased throughout the nation.
My folks (107 Highway) have so many new neighbors. Most of them are from California and New York, or rural New England (mostly Vermont). We have around 200 acres and the number of offers to buy the property is pretty intense.
The folks moving to the more rural parts of NETN don't really need an economic base as they have $500k+ in cash from the sale of the former home, are semi- or fully retired or otherwise WFH, and just want 5 acres to do their thing in peace. The "inner cities" in the Tri-Cities will likely continue to lag, which really does underscore the lack of economy in the area. (A good example is the E Unaka area of Johnson City, which in most other cities would be among the highest priced homes, but there... it just isn't.)
Thanks for the feedback everyone. Just like Lizap said, housing across the nation has increased dramatically. I have looked along the Tennessee/Kentucky border, North of Crossville in between I-75 West to Dale Hollow Lake, and even those areas are up in price over double from pre-pandemic levels. I would also like to hold off and see the results of the 2022 election and compare with previous election results from the region. With the influx of people from the West Coast and Northeast as mentioned by jabogitlu, I am curious to see if the transplants are bringing their same voting habits to your area. Colorado at one time was a very conservative state until the California invasion came. I personally know people that now live in Idaho, and Montana that are livid about what the California transplants are doing to those places.
As for real estate, I can only hope that the current trend of price drops, and increased market time will continue and lead to more of a correction in the next year or two. Listening to Jerome Powell last week, he certainly isn't mincing words about what the fed is intending on doing to fight inflation, even if a recession happens.
If anyone can recommend a very patient, no pressure realtor with experience of working with out of state buyers and has 10 years or more of being a real estate agent in the Carter/Unicoi County area, please DM me. I will be staying in Jonesborough in mid October and taking suggestions on specific areas to explore. My list includes the area in between Flag Pond and Erwin, Unicoi, and North of Elizabethton. I may venture into Hawkins county (Fall branch, Rogersville, Surgoinsville), but have been warned by multiple people on this forum to stay out of there. Once again, thanks for any suggestions/responses/information.
With the influx of people from the West Coast and Northeast as mentioned by jabogitlu, I am curious to see if the transplants are bringing their same voting habits to your area.
Probably not a big deal. The folks who are choosing to move to NETN are by-and-large extremely conservative. My dad (a generally centrist-to-libertarian type of voter) complains about the new folks who move in and "shoot their guns all hours of the day and night, like a crazy person"
Rogersville and Surgoinsville are armpits. NETN has a few "subregions" and the areas north of Greene County and west of Sullivan County are just NOT that nice. Small towns on/around I-26 (Flag Pond, Erwin, Carter County) are the best of all worlds, close to Asheville and Johnson City for necessities or nights out, but they feel pretty rural at the same time. Flag Pond especially feels more like the true Appalachian highlands due to its elevation and isolation.
If you want to be truly rural (+1 hour to a major hospital), I'd be looking at Shady Valley, Laurel Bloomery and those areas (the "true highlands"). This area is the best, last remaining part of old school NETN.
My folks (107 Highway) have so many new neighbors. Most of them are from California and New York, or rural New England (mostly Vermont). We have around 200 acres and the number of offers to buy the property is pretty intense.
The folks moving to the more rural parts of NETN don't really need an economic base as they have $500k+ in cash from the sale of the former home, are semi- or fully retired or otherwise WFH, and just want 5 acres to do their thing in peace. The "inner cities" in the Tri-Cities will likely continue to lag, which really does underscore the lack of economy in the area. (A good example is the E Unaka area of Johnson City, which in most other cities would be among the highest priced homes, but there... it just isn't.)
Personally, I think this "very rural" thing, for the most part, is an oddity of the pandemic and politics.
If someone has lived in a major city for most of their lives, moving somewhere very rural is going to be a large adjustment, no matter how much they want to say otherwise. Most people coming from these areas are going to notice a huge loss in services and other things that they are used to. Living somewhere where they might be one grocery store within 20-30 minutes, poor/no cellular service, poor/no broadband, dealing with a well, etc. I'd say many of these people will relocate more toward what they are familiar with after a few years.
I think houses like this won't hold their value. The typical local ranch with a lack of updates going for $300k seems a little ridiculous.
I agree - there is, what seems to be, good value in places like Unaka Ave. Close to downtown, the baseball field, Tweetsie Trail, interstate access, etc., but it's just not catching on.
Years ago, there was a lot of discussion on this board that, as newcomers come in, there may be a bit of a shift in voting patterns, in favor of urbanization and the like. In fact, I'd argue the opposite has occurred - the people who are coming in are markedly more conservative than I would have thought a few years ago. If anything, I'd accept inside the city real estate to not appreciate as fast as more rural areas.
Probably not a big deal. The folks who are choosing to move to NETN are by-and-large extremely conservative. My dad (a generally centrist-to-libertarian type of voter) complains about the new folks who move in and "shoot their guns all hours of the day and night, like a crazy person"
Rogersville and Surgoinsville are armpits. NETN has a few "subregions" and the areas north of Greene County and west of Sullivan County are just NOT that nice. Small towns on/around I-26 (Flag Pond, Erwin, Carter County) are the best of all worlds, close to Asheville and Johnson City for necessities or nights out, but they feel pretty rural at the same time. Flag Pond especially feels more like the true Appalachian highlands due to its elevation and isolation.
If you want to be truly rural (+1 hour to a major hospital), I'd be looking at Shady Valley, Laurel Bloomery and those areas (the "true highlands"). This area is the best, last remaining part of old school NETN.
Completely agree.
If I was looking for rural/mountain land, I'd be looking into Carter/Unicoi counties, and maybe even far eastern Sullivan County or Johnson County if you want to be closer to Boone. Anything west of Kingsport isn't worth the time or effort.
Last edited by Serious Conversation; 08-30-2022 at 12:36 PM..
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