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Our trajectory is closely following Europes (Italy and Spain) so yes, it is likely we're nearing an apex except:
1. Americans are arrogant "don't tell me what to do, freedom" types so we can't seem to follow simple directives.
2. Our Fed leaders can't seem to give any simple directives that aren't either wrong, conflicting or straight up harmful.
3. America is a religious wasteland of hypocritical organized sects that can't seem to stop congregating and have such faith they immediately outlaw the holy water.
ISOLATION and TESTING are the keys. Every country that turned the corner has administered many thousands more tests than we have. I know two people last week DENIED tests who wound up positive. The national response to this has been shortsighted, weak and mostly moronic.
Dr Fauci has since admitted he was dead wrong regarding the threat of the virus to America and has explained he (and just about all other American public health experts) were wrong because they were faked out by false Chinese data/reports. Experts (and non-experts) can certainly be wrong. In this case, he puts the blame squarely on China.
Dr. Fauci has also explained that China's misinformation meant that we missed our best chance to avoid much of the ill effects of the virus. He has repeatedly said he would have recommended an even earlier and even more vigorous halt to China-related travel.
Well, we certainly missed that first and best chance to dodge the full effects of the virus and the rest, as they say, is history.
Wow, an expert who admits when they're wrong. He should be fired in 5...4...3...2...
You just added more credibility to Fauci. The blame China angle is lame and outdated. This is our F-up now. Own it. Like Dr. Fauci would.
The China travel ban was the ONLY good thing they did, but every expert says that alone wouldn't have stopped it. Many of us are sure we had it in February, but had no idea what it was and STILL can't get tested for the antibody. But the Pentagon sure did know and so did the WHite House....and they did jack s*it but deny and discount it and blame China, the Dems, the press, the sun in their eyes, the Bolsheviks, the Houston Astros sign stealing and the inspector general...the buck stops...?!?!?!?!?!?
Originally postsed by markjames68 Thanks. Looks like NY is projected to peak in 2 days for resources and 3 days for deaths. And by May be on the downswing. Assuming of course social distancing is still maintained through May.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Quick Commenter
/\/\ I read the model as the NY deaths downswing beginning after the peak (not May, but April 9) with the last Coronavirus deaths in NY May 1ish. Is that wrong?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ken_N
I see 10 per day at May 1st, looks like maybe May 9th to get a prediction of 0 per day.
Upon further squint I see that on the model. Downswing is after the peak (April 9) and very last death May 9th - ish on that model.
Upon further squint I see that on the model. Downswing is after the peak (April 9) and very last death May 9th - ish on that model.
I doubt May 9th will see the last of any deaths but hopefully the crisis will be lessening within 2 weeks. Our healthcare workers on the front line need a bit of a breather.
Dr Fauci has since admitted he was dead wrong regarding the threat of the virus to America and has explained he (and just about all other American public health experts) were wrong because they were faked out by false Chinese data/reports. Experts (and non-experts) can certainly be wrong. In this case, he puts the blame squarely on China.
Dr. Fauci has also explained that China's misinformation meant that we missed our best chance to avoid much of the ill effects of the virus. He has repeatedly said he would have recommended an even earlier and even more vigorous halt to China-related travel.
Well, we certainly missed that first and best chance to dodge the full effects of the virus and the rest, as they say, is history.
The bolded is not consistent with what I have read or seen; do you have a source? Here's the closest I can find to a performance critique and, as it says, it's too early to do a comprehensive review.
The consistently most critical failure noted has been our inability to perform comprehensive testing which delayed isolation orders and equipment supplies.
The bolded is not consistent with what I have read or seen; do you have a source? Here's the closest I can find to a performance critique and, as it says, it's too early to do a comprehensive review.
The consistently most critical failure noted has been our inability to perform comprehensive testing which delayed isolation orders and equipment supplies.
Source: Friday’s PBS interview with Dr. Fauci. 13:20 - 16:40.
It is also true and widely reported that bureaucratic bungling and outdated CDC protocols meant our tests and testing were woefully inadequate once the virus arrived via various ports of entry and began to spread.
Others have noted that the banning of China travel on 31 Jan was not nearly as airtight (or as early) as it should have been: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21N0EJ Ditto for ‘stay home’ orders. No doubt AARs will reveal a host of lessons learned.
Last edited by Quick Commenter; 04-07-2020 at 03:27 AM..
Let’s just hope that US takes notes from Japan and we’re ready the next time something like this happens. They claim their readiness is due to the fact that they got hit hard with other SARS viruses and therefore have been prepared when this one broke out.
It is also true and widely reported that bureaucratic bungling and outdated CDC protocols meant our tests and testing were woefully inadequate once the virus arrived via various ports of entry and began to spread.
Others have noted that the banning of China travel on 31 Jan was not nearly as airtight (or as early) as it should have been: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN21N0EJ Ditto for ‘stay home’ orders. No doubt AARs will reveal a host of lessons learned.
Thanks for the links. I agree the widely touted "travel ban" is a major misnomer; it was no more than a set of travel restrictions extremely limited by groups of people and limited geography that did not go far enough in stifling the spread of the virus. I have found that most people touting it as an effective early defense are surprised to find out how limited it actually was and were not aware that nonstop flights from China to the USA continued at least until the end of February when they were halted not by regulation but by the lack of economic viability.
I also agree there were failures but not necessarily of outdated protocols as much as ignored protocols in that the NSC and CDC prepared manual for dealing with such a pandemic was largely ignored; bureaucratic bungling indeed. The lack of testing capability that continues today is totally unacceptable and unforgiveable.
Having reviewed the PBS video you supplied I agree with your statement that lack of good information from China affected the response here but I found nothing to support your claim that Fauci said he was "dead wrong regarding the threat of the virus to America." Researchers are only as good as the information they are supplied and at no time have I seen or heard Fauci making even qualified statements that this virus should not be considered a threat.
Let’s just hope that US takes notes from Japan and we’re ready the next time something like this happens. They claim their readiness is due to the fact that they got hit hard with other SARS viruses and therefore have been prepared when this one broke out.
But I would think that their "preparedness" is also driven by the fact that they can more easily contain any outbreaks. Japan is both an island, as well as about 10-15% the size of the United States.
Cuomo THINKS the PLATEAU is near because hospitals are releasing more people then they are admitting but he can't manage to connect the fact that is because nurses and caretakes are quitting, getting sick themselves and boycotting so there aren't enough people to care for new admissions so they are telling people to care for themselves at home UNLESS they can not breath on their own. They are also not discharging CURED patients - they are only discharging patients that no longer need ICU and telling them to self treat at home PLUS insurance will not continue paying for them to stay in the hospital so ready or not - discharge is recommended or patients are leaving AMA because they can't afford to stay.
Then he says - well, when we get rapid testing in place - if you test negative - you can go back to work. Seriously? People who are SICK are not getting tested because not only are there not enough test kits to go around but nobody wants to put themselves in an environment where 20 people are present because they THINK they MIGHT have covid19. If you didn't then, you surely will when you leave - AFTER you are tested. Talk about your false negative.
If you stayed in the house instead of running around like nothing is wrong and only went out when you had to wearing protective gear, and social distancing, and using wipes and lysol - and you were able to keep yourself healthy and your family safe - our reward is now to go out there - back into the workplace and on mass transit and risk our good health to keep the economy going? Since when did healthy people enlist in the front lines? That kind of idiotic thinking assures that whoever thus far has managed to stay healthy - will get sick and start to infect their entire household. And where is the scientific proof that you can not get reinfected?
Mass transit appears to be an incubator. The subways are still jammed packed. The LIRR is only running trains hourly into the city and brooklyn and creating overcrowding situations. People are brushed up against other people - who have no insurance and aren't getting treated or tested and although their symptoms might be mild - are still spreading the virus like crazy. Too many people are not wearing gloves and masks or using sanitizing wipes. Testing NEGATIVE is not an invitation to go back out there and keep the economy going.
Let them first prove you can not get reinfected and how long the contagious factor lasts - then let those who tested POSITIVE and are now exhibiting NO SYMPTOMS and can not longer infect anyone else - have THOSE guinea pigs go out and reinvigorate the economy.
Hell will freeze over before I allow any one of my family members to risk going to get tested to prove they are HEALTHY so they can go back to work. And how will that work exactly? Forcing people to prove they are NOT sick with COVID19 to continue getting paid by work to stay home or continue getting unemployment benefits?
How about making people AGREE to honor shelter in place guidelines BEFORE getting paid or getting those benefits and to stay OFF mass transit BEFORE they can be allowed to stay HOME?
What a mess of things we've made. And Trump with his - States have to bid against other States to buy life saving protective gear - including - bidding up masks directly from the Chinese is stupidity in its finest. The little boy is now "tired" of shelter at home and wants to pretend - its all ok - let's all go back to work now.
He also said that the BENEFIT is that the crime rate is down. Sure, The RATE of crimes being report will go down - but that's because Cuomo removed the protections the complainants and witnesses had and said they the accused have a right to know who they are and where they live. So crimes will again surge - but the rate of reported crimes will go down.
And I have been reading the NYC thread - quality of life crimes have skyrocketed. NYC thread - people still having to use the subways to get to work are complaining that the panhandlers on the trains have increased trifold because their "business" is down and people will just throw a bill on the seat to keep these people from spitting on them or approaching too close. Homeless sleeping across benches are getting whole cars to themselves while other cars are overcrowded. And the LIRR decreasing of train frequency and cutting down whole lines have led to overcrowding at hubs where people are complaining of much higher incidents of pick pockets while transferring trains at main HUBS - which some people are complaining they have to do twice in one trip - sometimes having to go East to head West and vice versa.
But isn't Cuomo, who can't even handle ONE state, becoming the shining star of the Democrat Party, whom the Dems deep capable of defeating Trump, who is dealing with, not only one state like Cuomo, but 50 (FIFTY!) states, China, Russia, Iran, North Korea, Afghanistan, AND the liberal media, Hollywood, Pelosi, and Schumer---ALL AT THE SAME TIME!! Talk about being able to multi-task! MAGA Trump 2020
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