Md Redistricting Plans, Proposals, & Dreams (Annapolis, California: school, gated, live)

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bufflove

Disagree. The 1st purposefully bypasses Baltimore County population centers so it can reach into Carroll and northern Frederick with the obvious goal of packing as many far right votes into it as possible. Actual geographic sense would be to cut out Carroll/Frederick for Anne Arundel or Baltimore Co.

I wouldn't argue if the district was drawn that way, but the way it is drawn now is one of the two least egregious districts in the state. True, it was drawn to be a "safe GOP district" but unless you divide up the Eastern Shore, it is really hard to create a map that doesn't have at least one GOP friendly seat. I am pretty sure the goal of creating a Majority-Minority district #7 and protecting Dutch in #2 is why so much of greater Baltimore isn't part of District #1. Undo those horrible gerrymanders, and maybe your map becomes possible.

But again, I will repeat that the idea of redrawing a state-level map for the express purpose of unseating one guy you find unlikable isn't the way this system should work. It is bad enough, IMO, to create maps to unseat one party or the other, but going after an individual is a further step in the wrong direction.

[bufflove]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

I wouldn't argue if the district was drawn that way, but the way it is drawn now is one of the two least egregious districts in the state. True, it was drawn to be a "safe GOP district" but unless you divide up the Eastern Shore, it is really hard to create a map that doesn't have at least one GOP friendly seat. I am pretty sure the goal of creating a Majority-Minority district #7 and protecting Dutch in #2 is why so much of greater Baltimore isn't part of District #1. Undo those horrible gerrymanders, and maybe your map becomes possible.

But again, I will repeat that the idea of redrawing a state-level map for the express purpose of unseating one guy you find unlikable isn't the way this system should work. It is bad enough, IMO, to create maps to unseat one party or the other, but going after an individual is a further step in the wrong direction.

I can live with Horse Dewormer Harris winning if he does so in a district that's not drawn to specifically enable him. My broader point is that if Dems decide to sacrifice the 1st to the likes of Harris in an attempt to protect Trone et al. from competitive races then they can eff right off.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by The Very Man Himself

State redistricting can't be seen in isolation from the national picture. If the R's in Ohio are attempting to redistrict from 12-2 to 13-1 which they are, D's have to look for pick-ups elsewhere, and of course visa versa. The fact is even if you would prefer an "Independent Commission" and I do, the R's control more state legislatures and we are at a stalemate.

The overall decline in the number of swing districts nationwide has been a negative for our governmental system.

https://electionlawblog.org/?p=49294

There isn't much reason for 345 Reps in safe seats to ever compromise with the other party. They will only be unseated by a primary candidate from the extreme wing of their party, so why allow that opening?

If there is an argument for a single state to break the pattern and create more swing districts, it would be because those individuals have the power to break gridlock and get bills passed. The infrastructure bill only passed because a handful of Republicans voted with the Dems. Why? Well, because they represent districts where they can't simply bury their head for the next year and expect to retain their seat. Their constituency requires more moderation and less extremism.

It is easier to "name names" in the Senate; Sen. Manchin and Sen. Sinema are wielding immense power for their states because they aren't party line voters. They have to thread the needle and play to the middle. If any one state ends up with several of these power players because they create districts that necessitate them, they can raise their own influence within Congress.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bufflove

I can live with Horse Dewormer Harris winning if he does so in a district that's not drawn to specifically enable him. My broader point is that if Dems decide to sacrifice the 1st to the likes of Harris in an attempt to protect Trone et al. from competitive races then they can eff right off.

Well, that is what happened. Roscoe was targeted instead, even though he was an aging non-factor of a Representative.

There are many ways to tell the MD State Dem party to eff off here in 12 months, so keep your powder dry in case Harris is kept in a safe R district again.

[MidValleyDad]

Originally Posted by westsideboy

. . .
It is easier to "name names" in the Senate; Sen. Manchin and Sen. Sinema are wielding immense power for their states because they aren't party line voters. They have to thread the needle and play to the middle. If any one state ends up with several of these power players because they create districts that necessitate them, they can raise their own influence within Congress.

Progressives in the Democratic Party better watch how much they push Manchin. He is about as 'Liberal' as one can be and get elected in WV. If they were to push him out and try and run a more progressive person in WV (if they can find one) they will just turn the seat over to the GOP and then there goes the Senate.

Sinema is a different story. She is just a smart egotistical power grabber who is only in it for herself.

[bufflove]

Whaaaaaat I didn't even realize Wayne Gilchrist had a recent op-ed that I was parroting.

Eff politicians openly antagonistic towards American democracy. Redistrict the 1st so it isn't "packed" with the pro-insurrection crowd. Make him run in a race that isn't just about playing to the worst of this state/country.
https://www.baltimoresun.com/opinion...ree-story.html

[bufflove]

The 4 draft options have been released.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2021...ublic-comment/

Dave Wasserman, the House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report tweeted Tuesday that the four congressional maps include “two that would essentially leave Rep. Andy Harris (R) safe and two weak gerrymanders that could still give him a path to reelection.”

Wasserman wrote that the third map proposal would flip Harris’ 1st District from “Trump +20 to Biden +10 — about as blue as Virginia.”

“That’s pretty surprising, considering MD Dems could easily make it Biden +15 or more and have shown little restraint gerrymandering the state in the past,” Wasserman wrote.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bufflove

The 4 draft options have been released.

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2021...ublic-comment/

Dave Wasserman, the House analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report tweeted Tuesday that the four congressional maps include “two that would essentially leave Rep. Andy Harris (R) safe and two weak gerrymanders that could still give him a path to reelection.”

Wasserman wrote that the third map proposal would flip Harris’ 1st District from “Trump +20 to Biden +10 — about as blue as Virginia.”

“That’s pretty surprising, considering MD Dems could easily make it Biden +15 or more and have shown little restraint gerrymandering the state in the past,” Wasserman wrote.

1 and 4 look best for District 6. All the maps seems determined to lump Carroll County in with a big chunk of Montgomery to wash those voters out. The third map is the ugliest, most gerrymandered, and most non-sensical in terms of keeping communities of interest together, so my guess is that it is the front runner.

[bufflove]

GOP has already gerrymandered enough safe House districts to capture control in 2022 based on their redistricting edge alone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/u...ting-maps.html

Between Senate over-representation of minimally populated conservative states, the Electoral College, and gerrymandering of House seats it's safe to say Democrats are institutionally screwed on a semi-permanent basis. People love hating on the Citizens United decision (appropriately so), but if we're living through the decline of American democracy I'd think the Rucho decision allowing for political gerrymandering will be seen as an obvious culprit in hindsight.

[westsideboy]

Originally Posted by bufflove

GOP has already gerrymandered enough safe House districts to capture control in 2022 based on their redistricting edge alone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/11/15/u...ting-maps.html

Between Senate over-representation of minimally populated conservative states, the Electoral College, and gerrymandering of House seats it's safe to say Democrats are institutionally screwed on a semi-permanent basis. People love hating on the Citizens United decision (appropriately so), but if we're living through the decline of American democracy I'd think the Rucho decision allowing for political gerrymandering will be seen as an obvious culprit in hindsight.

Sigh. You normally don't read these types of articles until AFTER the party in power is swept away, not while they still hold the White House, the Senate, and the House. I guess even NYT is viewing 2022 as a wipe out for the Dems.

One could argue the Electoral College is close to tipping to unwinnable for the GOP as TX because majority-minority. How many GOP winning maps can you create with a Blue Texas?

The solution to failing to win State Houses is easy; adopt policy issues and run candidates who appeal to the voters who live there. The solution to winning Senate seats is just as easy, don't scare voters by promises to pack the Supreme Court and eliminate the filibuster.

Of course, the Dems would rather complain about our time honored system of government, which by design, is supposed to divide power and prevent any group, including urban elites concentrated in coastal regions, from dominating the government, than play within the system. I'll go a step further and say the Dem's plan is to refuse to be competitive across vast swaths of our diverse country, then use those losses as ammunition to their urban base that our governmental system needs to be upended and destroyed.