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I do not claim any sudden expertise in epidemiological modeling and have no comment on the validity of the various models or lack thereof.
I believe that the media’s criticism of the Minnesota model, as I understand it, is that Minnesota does not offer the granularity of data that other states are offering, making side by side comparisons difficult if not impossible.
I am not sure why Minnesota is reluctant to release the same level of detail as other states, as that would seem to be a step that would promote confidence in the state’s efforts.
Five weeks ago it was widely reported that Seattle was the hardest hit area in the US for corona virus which is probably why they decided to put a field hospital there. Now “The hastily built field hospital set up by the*Army*in Seattle's pro football stadium is shutting down without ever seeing a patient” -https://news.yahoo.com/armys-seattle-field-hospital-closes-165646379.html.
”Durkan said the judgment has been made that the state's hospitals currently have the capacity to deal with the coronavirus threat.”
Yeah, it is a wonder then why a consensus of world leaders and leading health experts do not agree with you. Even with all measures taken there have been 100,000 reported deaths worldwide (and probably alot more unreported). Minnesota has the lowest transmission rate of any of the US states last I checked and that is probably thanks to the shutdown and statewide compliance with social distancing recommendations.
If you attempted to make this argument in NYC for instance, where bodies continue to pile up as we speak, I’m not sure it would go over so well.
100,000 deaths on a global scale in the time frame they've happened is absolutely minuscule when compared with other causes of death that have no cure and little or no hope of cure. Accidents, cancer, diabetes....start a list if you wish. If you want to talk contagions what about AIDS? First confirmed case globally - 1959. In the U.S. - 1981. Not spread as easily as coronavirus, but spread nonetheless. Here we are nearly what - SIXTY something years later having made progress in treatment, but still no cure. Half a million more projected to die from AIDS related illness this year, still a monumental problem on the African continent in particular, but no front page bold headlines because it's no longer the world cause flavor of the month. Look....we currently have a rogue virus on the loose that is highly contagious and can be dangerous for elderly and/or immunocompromised individuals....but there WILL be a Covid vaccine one way or another within the next year or two, they just need the time to continue the research/development and test it. The ACTUAL death toll from COVID-19 ALONE - that is to say the completely healthy people who acquired the virus and died solely because of its development - may not be accurately known but we DO KNOW it has to be approaching negligible in the grand scheme of this event. We KNOW the majority of people stricken with coronavirus - including the elderly - recover and recover quickly even if it develops into full blown Covid. That cannot be disputed. Bottom line: This is NOT THE INDISCRIMINATORY KILLER PLAGUE your faction is trying to pass it off as. We have this under control in Minnesota and we had it under control BEFORE the stay at home order was given.
And for the last time - we do not live in NEW FREGGIN' YORK!! New York is an overcrowded RATHOLE comprised of millions of people from all over the world stacked on top of eachother like cans at Costco....plus they are also a GLOBAL TRANSIT STATION which only compounds their issues. New York is a bubbling petri dish for this kind of stuff. They have legions more elderly and immunocompromised citizens than Minnesota does and unlike Minnesota they are not able to spread out to defend themselves because of the crushing density of their environment. We do not have a FRACTION of the problems they have on ANY level, including defending against this virus....but even in New York the Covid curve has already begun to flatten after just a few weeks. A FEW WEEKS! I am SO SICK of people comparing us to New York in order to bolster their Covid fear campaign!
Last edited by Tyryztoll; 04-10-2020 at 08:11 PM..
100,000 deaths on a global scale in the time frame they've happened is absolutely minuscule when compared with other causes of death that have no cure and little or no hope of cure. Accidents, cancer, diabetes....start a list if you wish. If you want to talk contagions what about AIDS? First confirmed case globally - 1959. In the U.S. - 1981. Not spread as easily as coronavirus, but spread nonetheless. Here we are nearly what - SIXTY something years later having made progress in treatment, but still no cure. Half a million more projected to die from AIDS related illness this year, still a monumental problem on the African continent in particular, but no front page bold headlines because it's no longer the world cause flavor of the month. Look....we currently have a rogue virus on the loose that is highly contagious and can be dangerous for elderly and/or immunocompromised individuals....but there WILL be a Covid vaccine one way or another within the next year or two, they just need the time to continue the research/development and test it. The ACTUAL death toll from COVID-19 ALONE - that is to say the completely healthy people who acquired the virus and died solely because of its development - may not be accurately known but we DO KNOW it has to be approaching negligible in the grand scheme of this event. We KNOW the majority of people stricken with coronavirus - including the elderly - recover and recover quickly even if it develops into full blown Covid. That cannot be disputed. Bottom line: This is NOT THE INDISCRIMINATORY KILLER PLAGUE your faction is trying to pass it off as. We have this under control in Minnesota and we had it under control BEFORE the stay at home order was given.
And for the last time - we do not live in NEW FREGGIN' YORK!! New York is an overcrowded RATHOLE comprised of millions of people from all over the world stacked on top of eachother like cans at Costco....plus they are also a GLOBAL TRANSIT STATION which only compounds their issues. New York is a bubbling petri dish for this kind of stuff. They have legions more elderly and immunocompromised citizens than Minnesota does and unlike Minnesota they are not able to spread out to defend themselves because of the crushing density of their environment. We do not have a FRACTION of the problems they have on ANY level, including defending against this virus....but even in New York the Covid curve has already begun to flatten after just a few weeks. A FEW WEEKS! I am SO SICK of people comparing us to New York in order to bolster their Covid fear campaign!
Sweden volunteered to serve as a control for the rest of the world to test the efficacy of lockdown vs no lockdown on covid spread and mortality. You can look up their numbers and educate yourself on the benefit and necessity of social distancing in mitigating this public health crisis and saving lives at risk. MN has a slightly higher population density than Sweden has, but is having a much better control on covid despite a busy MSP air hub. Your rants are senseless and reveal how little you care about the life and death situation of your fellow citizens
Sweden volunteered to serve as a control for the rest of the world to test the efficacy of lockdown vs no lockdown on covid spread and mortality. You can look up their numbers and educate yourself on the benefit and necessity of social distancing in mitigating this public health crisis and saving lives at risk. MN has a slightly higher population density than Sweden has, but is having a much better control on covid despite a busy MSP air hub. Your rants are senseless and reveal how little you care about the life and death situation of your fellow citizens
Hell, the United States as a whole is keeping the fatality rate down better than Sweden. The fatality rate in Sweden is 150% that of the United States. In fact, Sweden has the 8th-highest COVID-19 fatality rate in the world among non-microstates.
The best comparison models for Sweden are probably its immediate Scandinavian neighbors. Denmark? Their fatality rate is half that of Sweden. Norway? One quarter that of Sweden. Finland? (if we count them as Scandinavian) One-tenth.
Also, Sweden is most certainly not taking a business-as-usual approach. The country has banned public gatherings, limited bars/restaurant operations and mandated distancing in table-spacing in those establishments. Individually, Swedes are widely following guidelines being issued in other countries. For example, Swedish Airlines has reduced staffing by 80% because almost no one is flying. And many events have been cancelled, such as national academic testing (the equivalent of SATs/ACTs), and domestic sports leagues and other sporting events have been postponed or cancelled.
So this idea that Sweden is both avoiding disruptions as well as seeing relatively few deaths is not true. I suspect that this idea is being peddled on platforms like Facebook (where I've seen it ) and the like, and that people who see those things never bother to question them - look at the numbers, check the specific claims, etc. - and believe them because they want them to to so.
Hell, the United States as a whole is keeping the fatality rate down better than Sweden. The fatality rate in Sweden is 150% that of the United States. In fact, Sweden has the 8th-highest COVID-19 fatality rate in the world among non-microstates.
The best comparison models for Sweden are probably its immediate Scandinavian neighbors. Denmark? Their fatality rate is half that of Sweden. Norway? One quarter that of Sweden. Finland? (if we count them as Scandinavian) One-tenth.
Also, Sweden is most certainly not taking a business-as-usual approach. The country has banned public gatherings, limited bars/restaurant operations and mandated distancing in table-spacing in those establishments. Individually, Swedes are widely following guidelines being issued in other countries. For example, Swedish Airlines has reduced staffing by 80% because almost no one is flying. And many events have been cancelled, such as national academic testing (the equivalent of SATs/ACTs), and domestic sports leagues and other sporting events have been postponed or cancelled.
So this idea that Sweden is both avoiding disruptions as well as seeing relatively few deaths is not true. I suspect that this idea is being peddled on platforms like Facebook (where I've seen it ) and the like, and that people who see those things never bother to question them - look at the numbers, check the specific claims, etc. - and believe them because they want them to to so.
If only you would capitalize every third of fourth word, perhaps we could hear you better and your post would have more legitimacy.
Your rants are senseless and reveal how little you care about the life and death situation of your fellow citizens
With all due respect, that is a bogus claim and one that continues to be thrown around - "you don't care about human life if you are even a little bit concerned about the economy".
In fact, I believe it's the people that don't have the foresight to see the ramifications of a potentially 30% unemployed America who are the ones who lack empathy. Google "suicide rate coronavirus" and see what comes up. Wait, I will do it for you...
With all due respect, that is a bogus claim and one that continues to be thrown around - "you don't care about human life if you are even a little bit concerned about the economy".
In fact, I believe it's the people that don't have the foresight to see the ramifications of a potentially 30% unemployed America who are the ones who lack empathy. Google "suicide rate coronavirus" and see what comes up. Wait, I will do it for you...
Article after article about suicide in America related to this virus.
Now...who really cares about human life?
Do you mind providing reliable Numbers of covid-related suicides so we can compare the severity between suicide and covid? Losing lives in either circumstance is sad, but sometimes you need to make a tough decision to make the best out of bad situations.
Besides the skyrocketing deaths, hope you have the “foresight” to understand that covid also causes vast burden on the healthcare system that will collapse it in a few months if left uncontrolled. Too bad that Sweden is practicing social distancing now so we won’t see how and when their medical system collapses due to their foolish handling of this epidemic.
If you have that foresight, you would foresee other non-covid related deaths from patients dying from not receiving essential healthcare they need when hospitals are flooded by covid patients, not to mention the crisis from astronomical medical expenses that the nation has to deal with. On top of all these, you might as well appreciate that when 10% of the population are infected by covid, psychological and emotional impact will cause surging medical issues and fatalities from suicide when many dealing with infection fear and grief from loss of loved ones.
According to one CDC report, Minnesota was closer to flat that any state from 3/31 to 4/7, going from 12.3 incidents per 100,000 to 20.6 per 100,000.
Both of those data points are low when compared to other states. The 12.3/100k for Minnesota on 3/31 is not the lowest incident rate among the states, but near it at fourth lowest. The 20.6/100k for Minnesota on 4/7 is the lowest.
That 8.3 per 100,000 incident rate increase is the flatest of all the states over the 3/31 to 4/7 time period. No other state reported a single digit increase over that time.
The states with a lower incident rate on 3/31 that Minnesota on 3/31 - West Virginia, 9; Nebraska 9.2; South Dakota, 12.2 - all moved past us to 22.8 (+13.8), 24.8 (+15.6) and 36.3 (+24), respectively.
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