No, that isn't wholly correct.
State Employment and Unemployment Technical Note
" Civilian labor force and unemployment--from the LAUS program
Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions
as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a
sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census
Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed people and unemployed people on a place of-residence basis. The
universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Employed people
are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including
the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not
working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as
bad weather, labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation.
Unemployed people are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above),
had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were
currently available for work; people on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted
as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people. The unemployment rate
is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.
Method of estimation. Estimates for 48 states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale
metropolitan division, New York City, and the balances of California and New York State are produced using
time-series models. This method, which underwent substantial enhancement at the beginning of 2021, utilizes
data from several sources, including the CPS, the CES, and state unemployment insurance (UI) programs.
Estimates for the state of California are derived by summing the estimates for the Los Angeles-Long Beach-
Glendale metropolitan division and the balance of California. Similarly, estimates for New York State are
derived by summing the estimates for New York City and the balance of New York State. Estimates for the
five additional substate areas contained in this release (the Cleveland-Elyria and Detroit-Warren-Dearborn
metropolitan areas and the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, Miami-Miami Beach Kendall, and Seattle-
Bellevue-Everett metropolitan divisions) and their respective balances of state are produced using a similar
model-based approach."
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.tn.htm
https://www.nj.gov/labor/labormarket...rce-estimates/
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.toc.htm
Yes, state UI numbers are derived from input based upon those drawing compensation, but there are also several other sources of data. This includes conducting a survey of persons asking if they are employed, unemployed, and unemployed but actively seeking work. It also asks those who are partially unemployed if they are seeking full time employment.
Thus UI numbers in any state can rise if there are large numbers of unemployed persons who are seeking work. This even if they are *NOT* drawing UI benefits.
Right now it appears NJ's UI rate is partially the above; there is a large number of persons who are unemployed who are not finding work. Part this can be (and often is) people not finding work that meets their skill set/education level and so forth.
Right now largest gains in employment driving NJ are heath care, retail, and perhaps hospitality. Meanwhile jobs losses have occurred in skilled trades and various highly educated professionals.
Someone earing $95k-$120k isn't going to take a job as an effing nursing assistant paying $50k.
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