Phoenix area home values- November, 2010 --- (Mesa, Scottsdale: rental homes, HOA fees, insurance)

[EnicAZ]

khuntrevor:

This is something which has been seen in the market. Also, with the onset of the foreclosure-gate crisis, more and more legal issues have been added to these situations. Investor sales have really plunged from a few weeks ago, with many backing out. They don't want to get caught up in the the type of legal mess that even some title companies deal with.

[PhoenixAirConcerns]

I have been seeing that the Arizona Republic says the same thing, home values are going to fall a lot.

azcentral.com blogs - Real Estate and Growth - CatherineReagor - Phoenix home price forecast

[tashina]

Originally Posted by PhoenixAirConcerns

I have been seeing that the Arizona Republic says the same thing, home values are going to fall a lot.

azcentral.com blogs - Real Estate and Growth - CatherineReagor - Phoenix home price forecast

Sorry, but I don't see that. They are projecting the same prices for January as November, and they admit the February numbers are way too early to call yet.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

The foreclosure moratorium will be lifted soon because it is really easy to find out who owns your mortgage.

Taken from http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/1...et#entry_12345

[EnicAZ]

PhoenixAirConerns:

The unfortunate in-progress steep decline in Phoenix home values is correctly indicated in the article you listed. It comes from the save live data source I get my up to date information from.

[Howard Roark]

I'm happy to say that I cashed out about $45,000 worth of precious metals and stocks in the last month. Made some great gains and will keep most of that additional cash unless I see some great stock values again.

I will continue to sit out and watch my Phoenix areas of interest: North Scottsdale, Ahwatukee, Arcadia, the Biltmore, downtown, and Pointe Tapatio. Got popcorn?

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Howard Roark

I'm happy to say that I cashed out about $45,000 worth of precious metals and stocks in the last month. ...

Got popcorn?

Howard. Here is another commodity to look at. Inside Info: Next Friday, the price is going to plummet on this commodity (see #1: Black Friday 2010 Microwave Popcorn Popper | Black Friday 2010 Microwave Popcorn Popper (http://microwavepopcornpopper.blackfridays2010.net/black-friday-2010-microwave-popcorn-popper/ - broken link) ).

[EnicAZ]

Howard,

I wish you luck on this. While all tiers of homes are seeing in-progress value declines at a quick pace, high end homes are seeing the quickest drops. It is going to be some rough information once the Case Shiller Home Price index comes out with late fall data.

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

I cannot figure out how to past a spread sheet. But look at the historical data for Cape Coral area (link below). The Cape area had a 15% jump in ONE month.


Source, HousingTracker.net | Median Home Asking Price & Inventory Data for Cape Coral, Florida

__________________________________________________ ____________

Here is what CAN happen if inventory in Phoenix is taken off the market because of the foreclosure moratorium. This is Cape Coral. The economy there sucks, housing is in over supply, banks don't want to lend money, and people are supposedly scared to buy because of title issues.

This is one of the hardest hit areas in the country. As you see, they took off a lot of foreclosures and the price popped up quickly.

So what is the lesson?? The perception is that the supply might dry up and people got off the dime and bought. It also suggest that the day foreclosures dry up (that day WILL come) undervalued prices will bounce back thousands of dollars literally overnight.

I take this as a lesson. No one in their right mind assumed that the trend would reverse that quickly in Cape. It could just as easily reverse the other direction as well if the distressed inventory bounces back. But what this says to me is you cannot time it and it can bounce back quickly. Since the prices will be a good deal higher after even a partial recovery, it's not such a bad time to buy. I certainly would not be shocked if the prices were up 10% in a year although I personally predict they will be down.

I know we are working off of probabilities. And the probabilities are that FL will again resume the massive foreclosures. But if you needed to buy a home, I think this mini example shows no one knows what the H_ell is going on. Not even people that post their office somehow has more accurate models than other "experts".

There will most certainly be unanticipated pricing shifts to come in the Phoenix market place. If I was looking to buy my main residence, I'd be shopping for a deal as we speak. No question about it.

[EnicAZ]

It's the investors who have really backed off over the past few months unfortunately. Ever since the end of the tax credits and foreclosuregate, interest in the market has taken a major shift for the worse. So much of the only market was investors here, but now with the legal issues they have really being shying away. I think they know as well that all of that inventory is another layer that is going to continue to push down prices, and it is bourne out in the data with Phoenix MLS PPI data stating we are dropping approximately 4% in value each month.