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Old 02-05-2023, 08:05 PM
 
24 posts, read 37,786 times
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BTW-- I just looked at a number of houses on Zillow in Oregon City and prices have dropped by 2.1% in the past 30 days. There was also a decrease last month when I was last looking at Zillow. Just pick a random address of a house in say, downtown OC and type in the address, and you'll see the same thing.
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Old 02-05-2023, 10:22 PM
 
Location: WA
5,502 posts, read 7,805,881 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anise View Post
BTW-- I just looked at a number of houses on Zillow in Oregon City and prices have dropped by 2.1% in the past 30 days. There was also a decrease last month when I was last looking at Zillow. Just pick a random address of a house in say, downtown OC and type in the address, and you'll see the same thing.
I wouldn't necessarily trust Zillow. If they were so good at determining market value of homes they wouldn't have nearly bankrupted themselves losing money buying and selling houses.

It is good for actual listings of homes that are actually for sale if you treat it as just as view of real estate listings. Probably not so good for estimating the value of homes that are not for sale.
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Old 02-05-2023, 10:52 PM
 
Location: We_tside PNW (Columbia Gorge) / CO / SA TX / Thailand
34,801 posts, read 58,320,501 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anise View Post
Well, I looked on Zillow and I definitely see a lot more houses available than last year in the southern PDX area, kind of upper Milwaukie, and they're staying on the market much longer. So there's that. I also saw a strange case that I might do a separate post about. It's actually a piece of unbuilt land in Oregon City (technically Canby, but walking distance from downton OR City.) It's between 99 and the railroad tracks, and it's not big enough to be a developer's #1 choice (quarter acre.) But the weird part is that it was on the market for $245,000 in the summer of 2021, and it's now down on 80,000. For something that close in...I honestly don't understand this. It's near the river but not on a flood plain. It's very strange. I seriously wonder why the price has gone down THAT much.
Many reasons for bare land properties to fluctuate in price, could be a new discovery of zoning or land use. Or very probable that financing and carrying costs at these higher interest rates no longer allow projects to pencil out on this parcel. Bare land is very volatile in pricing, especially when developers are strapped.

Zillow estimates only follow regional trends. There are bound to be many more homes in inventory, but individual homes will price very different than trends. (And why I have never owned a cookie cutter home.). There can be hundreds of tract / me-too homes and none will sell in a significant downturn. But there is only one of my homes. It will sell if someone wants the features I demand to have in my home. (View, not able to see neighbors, Quiet!!!, Built-in, stone inside and out... Lots of windows, south facing view, natural wood, paved road, close to town, no stoplights in entire county! )

Just the basics.

I just checked Zillow . It's 2x my valuation. Redfin is 10% higher than Zillow. They're both nuts. I checked my first house. (Bought for $16k, sold for $38k - Zillow currently valued at $335k, actual value $120k)
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Old 02-10-2023, 04:21 AM
 
209 posts, read 148,537 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by texasdiver View Post
I wouldn't necessarily trust Zillow. If they were so good at determining market value of homes they wouldn't have nearly bankrupted themselves losing money buying and selling houses.

It is good for actual listings of homes that are actually for sale if you treat it as just as view of real estate listings. Probably not so good for estimating the value of homes that are not for sale.
Their estimates are worthless, but assuming there are sufficient sales, you can figure out the movement in price of homes by restricting the filter to homes sold in last 30, 60, 90, and 365 days.
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Old 02-10-2023, 06:25 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
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Zillow tends to exaggerate prices, IMO. That said there is no question the PNW market has peaked for now and is trending slightly downward. I don’t believe it will be a crash (the region is still relatively healthy), but lower prices in attractive areas will be a motivating factor in 2023. So may be a win-win.

Last edited by pnwguy2; 02-10-2023 at 06:37 PM..
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Old 02-10-2023, 06:41 PM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,873 posts, read 6,218,388 times
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Portland is #6 as home prices dropped-1.9% monthy over month. Not exactly a "crash".

I am not sure if the data is from August or September 2022, so who knows the current amount today. It is anyone's guess.

So yes, Portland is in the top 10 for real estate SFH price drops, but it is dubious whether it is a bubble and it is certainly way too early to say a bubble "popped". This isn't 2008 with 4 million foreclosures nation-wide as NINJA liar loan adjustable-rate mortgages reset. People have equity and 80% have a mortgage rate below 4%.



4. Portland, Oregon

Price change from July to August: -1.9%

Portland’s housing market is cooling along with the rest of the country. But even in light of the recent price decline, it’s tough to afford a home here.

The Portland Business Journal estimates that houses remain out of reach for families and individuals making a salary under six figures.


https://financebuzz.com/cities-with-falling-home-prices
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Old 02-10-2023, 06:43 PM
 
Location: Knoxville, TN
11,873 posts, read 6,218,388 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaylaM View Post
What we’ve noticed is that sellers in our neighborhood have just gotten too greedy and over-estimated how much they could get for their homes based on the crazy bidding wars earlier in the year. Instead of starting at a point where buyers might bid upward, they just started listing at the very top with no wiggle room, assuming demand is so high that buyers would just go with it. This strategy ended up attracting less traffic and, eventually, the homes have sold (still very high) but $100,000-$200,000 less than the list price.
This is common. Lots of sellers are pricing homes as if interest rates are still 3% and 20 people are making offers over asking while waiving home inspections. Those days are gone. It is back to normal, but with low inventory.
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Old 02-10-2023, 07:45 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,941,375 times
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Seattle and Portland will slow less than some, but they will not be immune. Both cities and suburbs remain attractive into the mid 20’s. Even a big earthquake won’t slow it down.
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Old 02-13-2023, 10:00 AM
 
Location: WA
5,502 posts, read 7,805,881 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pnwguy2 View Post
Seattle and Portland will slow less than some, but they will not be immune. Both cities and suburbs remain attractive into the mid 20’s. Even a big earthquake won’t slow it down.
That is the key. Cities do not operate in a vacuum. They are competing against all the other cities that people might relocate to or build businesses in. And every other place has its own issues was well. Portland doesn't have to be perfect, just better than or equal to the alternatives in order to continue to grow and prosper.

Place like Austin or Dallas or Phoenix or Las Vegas? They all have their own issues and reasons why they might not be attractive.
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Old 02-13-2023, 10:28 AM
 
9,229 posts, read 8,579,426 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blazenjames View Post
Portland is one of the worst real estate bubble in the country and it appears to finally be popping. Long way to fall.
It won't last. I suspect in large part it is a factor of the city's extreme politics. That will pass, as most extreme things do, and the properties will regain their values.
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