Housing Values May Drop Over 50% In Silicon Valley

[Dave Coe]

‘San Francisco is probably the worst run city in the United States’: Tech leaders debate leaving the Bay Area


https://fortune.com/2022/07/12/great...ainstorm-tech/

[alloo66]

Lol! It will never happen, since the Bay Area has never built enough housing/job. Lot's of land preserves.

[Dave Coe]

Rising interest rates already making a dent in the over-inflated Bay Area housing market. Alameda County is especially impacted.






https://www.eastbaytimes.com/2022/07...rop-on-record/

[artillery77]

Housing PRICES are declining a bit....because effective retail interest rates have more than doubled. Almost exactly 2 years ago I refinanced at 1.85% for a 15 year. I can't get it for twice that now. Even in prices are off 8%, the cost to the leveraged buyer has still gone up.

[Dave Coe]

‘The mood is dark’: More than half of Silicon Valley residents still want to move away, poll finds

Homelessness, racism and a ‘not in my backyard’ attitude toward building new housing permeates the Bay Area, according to annual poll


https://www.marketwatch.com/story/th...?siteid=nf-rss

[Ultrarunner]

A fair description that I'm hearing from co-workers and whether they move or not it is very much a topic of discussion... especially older planning to retire near the kids that already left.

As for housing there is a several acre Oakland site proposed for Home Depot and the neighborhood is very much against it saying build hundreds of units now...

I guess it depends where in the Bay Areas.

A builder friend says it can easily take several years from lot acquisition to finished single family home in the Oakland hills... just design review not alone plan review can add years... plus the building season for disturbing the ground is tightly controlled and when everything is finally in place your timing could be the worst as with foreclosure crisis, interest rate hikes, material shortages, COVID, etc...

[Dave Coe]

Originally Posted by WestCoaster99

Silicon Valley is run to a great extent on cheap imported labor.
It is reported that 74.3% of the techies in Silicon Valley are Asians, primarily Indians. They come here on a visa called H1b, which is indentured slavery, they are paid relatively low salaries and they can't change companies. By some accounts Asians make up about 40% of the population of Silicon Valley.

Trump Is Right: Silicon Valley Is Using H-1B Visas To Pay Low Wages To Immigrants | The Huffington Post

All of that is about to change.
What Trump's latest H-1B move means for workers and business - Mar. 4, 2017

This is just the beginning.

The essence of this post is that I believe the Asians will be gone from Silicon Valley, whether they are deported, go to Canada or leave on their own. Along with them will be gone the landlords who rent them, the grocers who sell them masala, and the Uber drivers who drive them around. It is a given, whether it takes few months or years, but current administration is here for at least four years; plenty of time. It is very clear as can be.

What would that do to SV economy? This post is not about race it is about economy. I for one think that immigration is good for the country, but I am not making the administration's policies. The Indians did a lot of good to US economy in more ways than one. I am sorry to see them gone.

Would the tech giants suddenly become patriotic and start hiring Americans at twice the salaries?
I don't think so, they would leave.

With such an exodus, the housing prices will fall by 50% or more. Most people are mortgaged to the hilt, any fall in prices will put them under water with short sales.

Did we not see this in 2009?
Deja Vu.

This old post was vindicated but because of the economy not Trump's policies.


https://slate.com/technology/2022/11...migration.html


https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/95497003.cms



https://www.forbes.com/sites/andyjse...h=509843936097

[Dave Coe]

Decline in Bay Area tech, big shift to New York and DC
https://www.wsj.com/articles/washing...ey-11675772084

[BRinSM]

Originally Posted by Dave Coe

Decline in Bay Area tech, big shift to New York and DC
https://www.wsj.com/articles/washing...ey-11675772084

This thread is about 6 years old now. Home prices jumped well over 50% since then and only now have started to dampen a bit. I feel bad for anyone who made home purchase decisions back in 2017 based on the data originally presented in this thread.

Back to the more recent article linked above, the only mention of 'shrink' or 'decline' is in relation to job postings. I read this as Bay Area tech companies hitting capacity for workers and seats to put them in here. While there have been layoffs recently, I don't see a decline in tech in the Bay Area, rather the big companies are hitting their limits and wisely looking at additional locations where they can find talent. This of course will lead to additional opportunities for smaller companies to ride the waves of growth in these new markets, so I think this is to be expected. I think distribution of talent is good thing and acts as a pressure relief valve for the region and allows for a more diverse economy to fill in the gaps of the slowing growth of tech.