If You Are Thinking of Moving to the Sarasota Area, DON'T!!!

[1rainman]

Most people moving here are old people that sell their house in new York, California wherever and use that money to buy a Florida house. When the market crashes up north and their $400,000 house is now $300,000 or they can't find a buyer it means prices going down in Florida too. I been here my whole life. Florida follows national trends maybe a bit more extreme in the ups and downs if anything.

Florida real estate depends on a constant influx of new residents. There's a huge number that die or move out every year and then a good number that work in real estate or construction. So the guy that builds new houses is laid off and he can't make his mortgage payment either.

Yes there's about 40% or so of homeowners their house is paid no big deal but that 10% or so that go on the market really affect the current price a lot.

It's not as many people getting foreclosed on due to higher interest rates not as many as 2008 but some. It's more about nobody left that can afford to buy a new home. With interest rates at 7% the monthly payment is a lot higher than 3% even if the house cost the same. So people are not able to afford as much buying a new home it will push priced down. Then investors lose money so they stop buying. It is a snowball effect.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by Sunshine Rules

The current "bubble" in real estate prices is very different, in my opinion, than the one back in the mid 2000's in that a lot of that bubble here in FL then was fed by insane, no money down loans (even to investors), no document loans & subprime lender loans at ridiculous interest rates. They created the "Ninja" mortgages -- no income, no job, no assets -- at very high interest rates, which added even more fuel to the fire. The number of loans increased substantially between 2003 and 2006. And it wasn't just new loans. Home owners also got into the loan crap shoot by pulling money from their residences via equity home loans. Eventually in 2008 the feeding frenzy hit a peak and lending dried up, the real estate market collapsed, and foreclosures became the norm for several years.

Most buyers today are doing conventional financing or paying cash (approximately 50% of all sales in our area are cash) rather than dubious 100% financing loans. Tighter lending standards compared to the 2000's will help minimize the risk of a real estate market crash as in 2008. The loans that have been made over the past decade are more solid, from borrowers with higher credit scores/ savings and lower debt. Yes there will be foreclosures, but then, there are always foreclosures going on, even in boom real estate markets.

This market is also different because the number of people looking to relocate to Florida continues to grow, creating more demand for owner occupied housing. Between now and April 1, 2024, the population of Florida is expected to grow by an average of 906 new residents per day, according to a news release from WFLA Channel 8 in Tampa. Florida’s population is expected to grow by more than 700,000 residents the next 2 years alone. More people require more housing.

One of the reasons for the growth can be contributed to Florida's business friendly governments, at the local and state levels. Businesses are finding they no longer have to be tied to metro areas like New York, and are therefore taking advantage of what FL has to offer.

I will leave the market predictions to the "experts." Most of those are not predicting a housing market crash in FL anytime soon, especially not in the next 5 years. Some are predicting demand will continue to drop as mortgage rates increase, which makes sense. Others disagree, saying the demand and lack of supply will continue to fuel the price increases for at least the next few years.

A study published recently by the FL Realtors Assn is predicting the following for our immediate area for 2023: Sales down 28.7%, prices up 3.2%

Time will tell which experts got it right.

Hope they run out of boomers coming here, but also the construction of new homes is up. Maybe it will balance out.

[1rainman]

Update - national home prices went up 2% after six months of declining. But the overall trend is downward. But like I said they'll still be over priced even after a significant drop.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by 1rainman

Update - national home prices went up 2% after six months of declining. But the overall trend is downward. But like I said they'll still be over priced even after a significant drop.

It’s world wide - the corporations have shot them selves in the foot - at some point they will run out of rich folks to get money from. The lack of new births - to make work-slaves and future consumers is going down. But here is a very good YT video on Blackstone. A very evil corporation. https://youtu.be/z-XH_l-c30k

Someone said it’s defaulting ? Watch out, more jacked up rentals and home prices.

[1rainman]

Well my generation got screwed with wages but with the lack of young people in China and USA the wages are going up as everyone retires and thanks to trump deporting people. Bidens hair brained attempt at open borders isn't solving it because most of them coming in now don't work unless you consider drug dealing or welfare a job. Though there will be a percentage that works.

[beach48urs]

Stay tuned. The reality is that many other banks are in trouble with their balance sheets. That's a fact, and the real estate community is whistling through the graveyard on this one.


Also, The Fed SHOULD raise rates today 3/22 or 2/23. Many others actually think Florida is somehow insulated from the national and global economy ! WRONG. Economies are interdependent much more now. Florida seems fine, but other states not so much as you might expect. ONE US dollar now is worth about 68 cents now - just from about yr2000.


Keep in mind, usually, again USUALLY, developers and real estate operatives GET IT WRONG, one way or the other.....ex: Building 2Million dollar CONDOs in a rush....ex: doubling up building MASSIVE APARTMENT buildings/multi family/townhouses......ex: buying up industrial property like its no tomorrow (happening now)

[1rainman]

Port Charlotte they are building small cheap looking homes and charging huge prices for them. I mean the new houses look cheaper than the ones a few years ago but selling for more. So I guess their base is covered in terms of not over investing. They are concrete block which I like better but I'm guessing that's just because wood got expensive. But the number of apartments and houses here the only thing close was the 90s but this is more than they ever built at once. When they all go on the market it should push priced down some but I don't think too much. But if a real estate collapse happens the same time they are opening up all these new apartment complexes and new homes then we will really get hit worse than others.

[beach43ofus]

Originally Posted by tinytrump

It’s world wide - the corporations have shot them selves in the foot - at some point they will run out of rich folks to get money from. The lack of new births - to make work-slaves and future consumers is going down. But here is a very good YT video on Blackstone. A very evil corporation. https://youtu.be/z-XH_l-c30k

Someone said it’s defaulting ? Watch out, more jacked up rentals and home prices.

That's 1 reason why our Southern border is open...to offset America's declining birth rate.DC won't say so publicly, but its the only way to sustain growth in tax revenues...by importing new taxpayers.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by 1rainman

Most people moving here are old people that sell their house in new York, California wherever and use that money to buy a Florida house. When the market crashes up north and their $400,000 house is now $300,000 or they can't find a buyer it means prices going down in Florida too. I been here my whole life. Florida follows national trends maybe a bit more extreme in the ups and downs if anything.

Florida real estate depends on a constant influx of new residents. There's a huge number that die or move out every year and then a good number that work in real estate or construction. So the guy that builds new houses is laid off and he can't make his mortgage payment either.

Yes there's about 40% or so of homeowners their house is paid no big deal but that 10% or so that go on the market really affect the current price a lot.

It's not as many people getting foreclosed on due to higher interest rates not as many as 2008 but some. It's more about nobody left that can afford to buy a new home. With interest rates at 7% the monthly payment is a lot higher than 3% even if the house cost the same. So people are not able to afford as much buying a new home it will push priced down. Then investors lose money so they stop buying. It is a snowball effect.

In some areas in Fl it’s gentrification. The natives and service workers can’t afford to live here. They are short on county workers, police, teachers, retail, hospitality industry, medical field etc.
We are, and have always been a service and tourist state. Now “too many” of the older wealthy boomers are changing the landscape. Best can hope for, is the retirement migration slows way down and the elders go to their heavenly paradise. The 55+ communities need to fold to all age.
There’s no other way to correct Fl. issues.

[tinytrump]

Originally Posted by beach43ofus

That's 1 reason why our Southern border is open...to offset America's declining birth rate.DC won't say so publicly, but its the only way to sustain growth in tax revenues...by importing new taxpayers.

Yes, I know. Also why after women and abortions. They want those future tax payers and they want them to be republicans.