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I lived on the Big Island of Hawaii. One of the volcanoes had been going off in a slow, simmering way for years. It creates VOG, which can eat through the paint on your car. It's nasty to breathe, worse than the worst L.A. smog. Finally it let go, as volcanoes will, and created a huge mess. It overran a lot of roads and people's land. They're still digging out from that.
On a scale of one to ten, I would rather live where there are hurricanes, that would be a five maybe. You have LOTS of time and plenty of warning. An active volcano would be an eight maybe. Again, you should have some time to scoot away. A tornado is a solid ten, you have literally zero time to take cover.
Life is risky no matter what you do, but one can minimize those risks by not living where there are tornadoes or volcanoes. I've left our earthquakes because I don't live where they generally happen.
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Not being a smart alec, just saying that when it comes to volcanoes, you can't bet on anything.
Thanks for pointing that out.
I was remembering the experience a survivor of Mt St Helens related to me. (He said he was about 80 miles away, IIRC) After two days of darkness, he woke to a moonscape of ash that, if it stirred, was bad for anything that breathed it, whether it was the engine on your car or your lungs. Obviously it didn't kill him, but it didn't make him happy.
I don't put any stock in those ideas about what happened millions of years ago, but you got me to look up the eruption patterns of Mt St Helens and Mt Pinatubo
I had been thinking of a single eruption, and while St Helens was, essentially, a single event (as far as ash ejections) Mt Pinatubo was an eye opener. Of course, Pinatubo was something like 100 times bigger (wild guess).
Following the climactic eruption of June 15, 1991, activity at the volcano continued at a much lower level, with continuous ash eruptions lasting until August 1991 and episodic eruptions continuing for another month.
So, that is 6 weeks of ash ejections, the worst of which spread ash for 3000 miles, but most of them were less explosive, and didn't scatter ash as far.
So, if you are over 1000 miles away, maybe masks and filters for a few days.
At 100 miles you might need masks and filters for a couple months.
If Yellowstone or that one in Italy erupts (talking violent eruption, which is not a given), that would be different. At 1000 miles you still need masks and filters for a few days, but on the longer term, it would be instant climate change, lasting a few years. (No, I don't think it would be an "extinction level event," no matter what some pop science pretender thinks.)
The year 1816 AD is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F). Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000, resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.
Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East Indies (modern-day Indonesia). This eruption was the largest in at least 1,300 years ; its effect on the climate may have been exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines.
The Year Without a Summer was an agricultural disaster; historian John D. Post called it "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world". The climatic aberrations of 1816 had their greatest effect on New England, Atlantic Canada, and Western Europe.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
The year 1816 AD is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F). Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000, resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.
Evidence suggests that the anomaly was predominantly a volcanic winter event caused by the massive 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora in April in the Dutch East Indies (modern-day Indonesia). This eruption was the largest in at least 1,300 years ; its effect on the climate may have been exacerbated by the 1814 eruption of Mayon in the Philippines.
The Year Without a Summer was an agricultural disaster; historian John D. Post called it "the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world". The climatic aberrations of 1816 had their greatest effect on New England, Atlantic Canada, and Western Europe.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Year_Without_a_Summer
Reading further, the article you linked indicated it wasn't just one volcanic event that triggered the Year Without a Summer, but a series of events beginning in 1808 (although Mount Tambora eruption was the largest event, and happened just a few months before the troubles began).
The resulting famine, across most of the northern hemisphere lasted for a year or two, but the falling (keyword) ash from the eruption was mainly a problem within a couple thousand miles.
(Mt Pinetubo spread ash further, but that was probably due to a hurricane in the region.)
The year 1816 AD is known as the Year Without a Summer because of severe climate abnormalities that caused average global temperatures to decrease by 0.4–0.7 °C (0.7–1 °F). Summer temperatures in Europe were the coldest of any on record between 1766 and 2000, resulting in crop failures and major food shortages across the Northern Hemisphere.
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So called "global temperatures" are an extraordinarily poor measure of any disaster.
Even a global disaster.
Even today, we can't really state, with any consistency, the amount of change in our, so called "global temperatures." Most of those measurements depend on the political leanings of those publishing the findings.
Regional impacts of such climate shifts are a better measure.
The climate shift at the end of the Medieval Warming Period (shift began just before 1275 and was chaotic) was dramatic, creating population declines in Europe and many nearby regions. It has been labeled the Little Ice Age, even though it wasn't a real ice age. It also contributed, indirectly to drought and population declines in N. America.
The Year without a Summer was a shorter spell with similar effects.
Volcanos have always had a major impact on the environment, not just localized like Pompei, but worldwide.
Scientists have now named the year 536 AD as the worst year to be alive in human history, caused by Icelandic volcanos erupting, not just once, but over a period of 10 years that caused major weather pattern changes including famines and crop failures similar to a nuclear winter.
a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere early in 536. Two other massive eruptions followed, in 540 and 547. The repeated blows, followed by plague, plunged Europe into economic stagnation that lasted until 640, https://www.science.org/content/arti...-year-be-alive
The 1818 year without a summer is a good example, but volcanos also have severe localized impacts such as the eruption of Krakatoa in 1883. While the dust from that one traveled around the world several times, it didn't cause widespread crop failures and famines, but it did cause a tidal wave that killed thousands just like the earthquake that killed 230,000 people in 2004.
Earthquakes can be very bad, and local events like hurricanes or tornados can devastate a local area, but aside from real plagues, the Black Death or Spanish Flu, volcanos have the largest worldwide impact.
One of the largest impacts of events like these isn't just the immediate deaths caused, but disease as carcasses rot and the breakdown of supply and health services.
I lived through the St. Helens eruption. I had to work out in the fields taking care of the livestock, and it wasn't fun even though the ash fallout wasn't as bad as it was in other areas. In my fields every step you took raised dust, we wrapped dishcloths around the air filters on the tractors to keep them from sucking that crap into the engines, and tried to keep the stock from moving around much until the first rain that settled the dust down. We didn't lose any, but I'm pretty sure it shortened the lives of some of our animals, but we couldn't put masks on them, and driving them over the dusty roads or fields to the barns would have been worse as they would have breathed in more of that stuff.
Just found out that our Long Valley Caldera is starting to wake up. I have been keeping track of Campi Flegrei and Yellowstone, but somehow missed another one of our native super volcanos. USGS has issued reassuring statements that they are on top of the situation and we have no volcanos in 'red' status. I am sure they have the situation under control (not).
After I read the USGS report, I started perusing predictions of what life will be like if a major volcano cuts loose. It isn't pretty. I did not realize how far ranging the effects of a major eruption would be. Volcanoes were something I just looked up, my concerns were with tornados and hurricanes.
Not much I can do if we do have a major eruption except keep my family safe and stock up enough supplies to take care of my not-so-wise son-in-law.
The thought of needing more than a year's supplies scares me.
I think I need to check the life span of my medications. I normally keep a 6 month supply.
One interesting thing that I read was that we would need to wear N95 masks while outdoors and seal the mask to the face. Evidently the ash does nasty things to our respiratory system.
I knew the ash is heavy and would disable mechanical equipment, but I didn't know it would also disable our lungs.
late to this game. I first took note of long valley in the late 90s when I was on my volcano kick to hike em...paid special attention to ranier, st helens (did both sides) and montserrat - actually considered buying a place there. Long valley was off-gassing 25 years ago, but has it REALLY gotten worse since? Sure, if the WHOLE thing explodes it can be less than fun - ditto yellowstone and if Ranier wakes up the entire seatac area will be under a Lahar watch...but I dont think an end-game scenario is in the cards there..despite doomsday websites, the USGS is not wetting the panties much...
TBH, the 'lets check it out and watch' approach to st helens is long over. we would never let anyone near the area EVER again if we witness a distortion like that. we now know too much (sidebar: if anyone ever DRIVES up there, check out the johnston ridge observatory at st helens and if they still do the imax - watch it. fascinating)
And after montserrat and what OTHER countries do, ignoring the very real threat of pyroclastics, I dont think anyone competent is going to do a wait and see in those situations either.
Iceland is a weird case, their smokies just sorta ooze, and while they do evac, they also get out dozers and dig lava channels....
The 2024 hurricane names are out. I am not on the list. The prediction is for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.
When I lived in hurricane country, we would talk about whether or not a hurricane was predicted to be a 'wet' or a 'dry' hurricane. A powerful storm can push enough water onshore to erase signs of human presence. I saw that in 1969-Hurricane Camille. Camille was a cat 5. We are not sure how strong the winds were because the devices used in 1969 were not strong enough to withstand the storm.
A lot of people did not realize the power of Camille. It pushed 24 feet of water onshore in some places. We went to find a relative's home in Waveland and only found the concrete footings. That was the day I became a prepper.
The nasty thing about hurricanes is not only does their wind destroy, but there is flooding to deal with.
Believe it or not, Hurricane Katrina was only a cat 3. However, she was wet. She also spawned tornadoes around her.
I love how the experts tell us that hurricanes are much worse today. Bull!!!! My first hurricane was Hurricane Betsy in 1965. We did not have good reporting. When I called my parents to tell them we were going to ride out the storm, their reply was 'What storm'.
We are better at locating them, and predicting where they are going (to some extent).
The catastrophe I would not like the most would be a major volcanic eruption.
Next, a major earthquake.
Then a major hurricane.
The 2024 hurricane names are out.
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Camille was a cat 5. We are not sure how strong the winds were because the devices used in 1969 were not strong enough to withstand the storm.
A lot of people did not realize the power of Camille. It pushed 24 feet of water onshore in some places. We went to find a relative's home in Waveland and only found the concrete footings.
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They estimate Camille's winds topped 200mph.
Not many people around, today, that survived it.
It destroyed everything in Biloxi, Gulfport and Pass Christian, up to the railroad.
I got there a few years later, and they were still rebuilding.
One reason I chose this location was lack of Earthquakes, Volcanoes and Hurricanes.
When the earth gets restless, the ground moves and the seas move.
I don't know of any place in the United States that is free from natural disasters. There is even a sleeping monster in the middle of the United States - the New Madrid fault.
Sometimes catastrophic events have occurred, and we are not sure why. Consider the Younger Dryas period. The experts are still arguing why it happened, but the mini-ice age lasted 1,300 years. They believe the onset took less than 100 years. So . . why did it happen? Global warming disrupted the ocean's circulation patterns? There was a period of volcanic activity? We got hit by a comet? There was a period of reduced sunspot activity? A combination of these? No one knows.
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