Tri-Cities approaching 300K

[grega94]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

Delayed population predictions again. This area is now at 360k by most estimates. Estimates are 450k by 2030. I don’t know why population numbers are so off. Tri cities is fastest growing in WA and the 3rd largest metro in Washington. (Some of my calculations are based on estimates). But I think Tri cities population will explode in the next decade. Buy real estate and make out like a bandit!

Well technically it’s the forth largest, Portland metro spills into WA, and Clark county (Vancouver) alone has 511,404 people. But yes I suppose it’s the third largest based in WA.

That being said, interesting prediction, so you think its growth rate will speed up this decade? I suppose more people are moving out of CA and Tri-Cities does have the warmest winters out of all other option in the inland NW so will bring a certain appeal compared to Bend or Boise or Spokane-Coeur d'Alene.

I don’t think it’s impossible but the US population overall is slowing down and might even start to contract this decade with falling birth rates and slowed down immigration so we shall see.

[pnwguy2]

Originally Posted by grega94

Well technically it’s the forth largest, Portland metro spills into WA, and Clark county (Vancouver) alone has 511,404 people. But yes I suppose it’s the third largest based in WA.

That being said, interesting prediction, so you think its growth rate will speed up this decade? I suppose more people are moving out of CA and Tri-Cities does have the warmest winters out of all other option in the inland NW so will bring a certain appeal compared to Bend or Boise or Spokane-Coeur d'Alene.

I don’t think it’s impossible but the US population overall is slowing down and might even start to contract this decade with falling birth rates and slowed down immigration so we shall see.

I think you make some good points. However I predict a large population movement from Western WA and Western Oregon to move east in the next decade and a half. The reality is housing costs are lower, and many are fed up with high crime rates. This won’t happen overnight but I expect this to play out in the next 10-15 years.

[SusVelo]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

I think you make some good points. However I predict a large population movement from Western WA and Western Oregon to move east in the next decade and a half. The reality is housing costs are lower, and many are fed up with high crime rates. This won’t happen overnight but I expect this to play out in the next 10-15 years.

Really dependent on wfh staying and crime not improving.

[grega94]

2023 numbers are out, here is the growth of the MSA since the thread started back in 2017. Looks like growth has been slowing down since Covid and hasn't fully recovered since, but that's a pattern for the whole state in general, tri-cities is still the fastest growing in the state, but Idaho is growing at a faster pace.

Tri-cities MSA
2023: 314,253 (+2,784) +0.89%
2022: 311,469 (+3,176) +1.03%
2021: 308,293 (+4,671) +1.53%
2020: 303,622 (+4,008) +1.34%
2019: 299,614 (+3,370) +1.14%
2018: 296,244 (+5,948) +2.04%
2017: 290,296 (+6,497) +2.29%
2016: 283,799 (+4,819) +1.73%

[grega94]

fastest growing metro areas in the PNW since 2020

Metro Area: 2023 | 2020 (Change) %
1. Coeur d'Alene, ID: 185,010 | 171,362 (+13,648) +7.96%
2. Boise, ID: 824,657 | 764,718 (+59,939) +7.84%

3. Idaho Falls, ID: 168,322 | 157,429 (+10,893) +6.92%

4. Twin Falls, ID: 120,635 | 114,283 | (+6,352) +5.56%
5. Bend, OR: 260,919 | 247,493 (+13,426) +5.42%

6. Pocatello, ID: 90,400 | 87,018 (+3,382) +3.89%
7. Tri-Cities, WA: 314,253 | 303,622 (+10,631) +3.50%

8. Corvallis, OR: 97,713 | 95,184 (+2,529) +2.66%
9. Spokane, WA: 600,292 | 585,784 (+14,508) +2.48%
10. Wenatchee, WA: 124,795 | 122,012 (+2,783) +2.28%
11. Bellingham, WA: 231,919 | 226,847 (+5,072) +2.24%
12. Albany, OR: 131,496 | 128,610 (+2,886) +2.24%

13. Longview, WA: 112,864 | 110,730 (+2,134) +1.93%
14. Lewiston, ID: 65,536 | 64,375 (+1,161) +1.80%
15. Mount Vernon, WA: 131,417 | 129,523 (+1,894) +1.46%
16. Olympia, WA: 299,003 | 294,793 (+4,210) +1.43%

17. Salem, OR: 436,546 | 433,353 (+3,193) +0.74%
18. Bremerton, WA: 277,658 | 275,611 (+2,047) +0.74%
19. Seattle, WA: 4,044,837 | 4,018,762 (+26,075) +0.65%

20. Yakima, WA: 256,643 | 256,728 (-85) -0.03%
21. Portland, OR: 2,508,050 | 2,512,859 (-4,809) -0.19%
22. Grants Pass, OR: 87,821 | 88,090 (-269) -0.31%
23. Eugene, OR: 381,181 | 382,971 (-1,790) -0.47%

24. Medford, OR: 220,768 | 223,259 (-2,491) -1.12%
25. Walla Walla, WA: 61,568 | 62,584 (-1,016) -1.62%

things to point out, Boise has crossed over the 800k mark, and Spokane has crossed over the 600k mark. Olympia is still just shy of 300k, will probably cross over next year. Also in terms of raw numbers, Boise is by far the fastest growing, even out pacing Seattle, and if the trend continues should be well past 900k by the end of the decade.

[NW Crow]

Walla Walla declining surprises me on its own and compared to these others. Is there someone on top of that situation who has an explanation or theory?

Anybody with new insights on Lewiston ID trend? Twin Falls beyond high cost of Boise, expanded food processing jobs and probably babies?

[jabogitlu]

Medford also surprises me. I haven't been watching trends in this MSA and I assumed it was growing, at least at an average rate, with Californians and retirees and people leaving Portland etc.

[texasdiver]

Originally Posted by grega94

2023 numbers are out, here is the growth of the MSA since the thread started back in 2017. Looks like growth has been slowing down since Covid and hasn't fully recovered since, but that's a pattern for the whole state in general, tri-cities is still the fastest growing in the state, but Idaho is growing at a faster pace.

Tri-cities MSA
2023: 314,253 (+2,784) +0.89%
2022: 311,469 (+3,176) +1.03%
2021: 308,293 (+4,671) +1.53%
2020: 303,622 (+4,008) +1.34%
2019: 299,614 (+3,370) +1.14%
2018: 296,244 (+5,948) +2.04%
2017: 290,296 (+6,497) +2.29%
2016: 283,799 (+4,819) +1.73%

Clark County (Vancouver) grew from 465,911 to 525,161 over that same time period which is more people (59,250) than the tri-cities even if the growth rate is not quite as high.

It's numbers get folded into the greater Portland metro area so people who aren't from here don't understand how fast it is growing. But there is construction going up all over the place around here.

[grega94]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Clark County (Vancouver) grew from 465,911 to 525,161 over that same time period which is more people (59,250) than the tri-cities even if the growth rate is not quite as high.

It's numbers get folded into the greater Portland metro area so people who aren't from here don't understand how fast it is growing. But there is construction going up all over the place around here.

Good point, if we divide the Portland metro area into Oregon and Washington (Clark + Skamania counties) then yes, you are right, Vancouver area is growing faster than Tri-Cities, making it the fastest growing area in the state.

Year: Washington (Vancouver Area) | Oregon (Portland Area) | Total
2023: 533,790| 1,974,260 | 2,508,050
2020: 515,347 | 1,997,512 | 2,512,859
Change: +18,443 (+3.57%) | -23,252 (-1.16%) | -4,809 (-0.19%)

Metro Area: 2023 | 2020 (Change) %
Vancouver, WA: 533,790 | 515,347 (+18,443) +3.57%
Tri-Cities, WA: 314,253 | 303,622 (+10,631) +3.50%