Impact of IBM lay-offs on Tucson.... (Phoenix: 2015, house, layoffs)

[509]

Does anybody have a guess as to how the massive lay-offs by IBM will affect Tucson??

It looks like 2000 total jobs in Tucson with most of those at fairly high wages. Are there suppliers in the valley that feed the IBM facilities??

Not sure the amount of jobs that will be lost in Tucson.

Massive Worldwide Layoff Underway At IBM - IEEE Spectrum

[tesla999]

The initial report of "massive layoffs" came from Cringely, a notorious Silicon Valley blowhard (who is quoted in the link that you provided). That is the first clue to take this information with a grain of salt. There will certainly be layoffs associated with IBM's restructuring as they are turning their focus to the cloud and big data analytics, but no where near 100,000 people will be laid off. IBM itself has categorically denied these rumors. Think about it - IBM is taking a $600mil charge for restructuring which would involve several thousand people (likely not even 10,000 people, much less 100,000). I'm not sure where you arrived at the 2000 figure for Tucson. At this point, it is all very much speculation re exactly what IBM plans to do, how many people will be involved, and where (geographically) the cuts will be taken from. (Btw, I work as a cloud engineer for another company, not IBM.)

[509]

Thanks for the reply.

The original posting was in Forbes, but IEEE is a more reliable source. Did "Cringely" write the Forbes article?

Do you have any idea about IBM's presence in the valley??

My wife would like to move back to Tucson, but she last lived there in 1974. We like visiting the town and it is a lot nicer than what happened to Phoenix.

We are curious as to the impact on the housing market. We have noticed that Tucson prices are headed downward once again. IF this layoff contributes to the downward pressure on housing, we could get more house and better location just by waiting. We are in no hurry to move, our local market is appreciating at a rapid clip.

[actinic]

Originally Posted by 509

We have noticed that Tucson prices are headed downward once again.

Prices are soft ... again. Compared to a year ago fewer homes are selling, more are on the market, and it's taking longer to sell. Maybe some prospective buyers changed their minds after driving on Grant.

http://www.tucsonrealtors.org/docs/d...F.pdf?sfvrsn=0

[tesla999]

Originally Posted by 509

Thanks for the reply.

The original posting was in Forbes, but IEEE is a more reliable source. Did "Cringely" write the Forbes article?

Do you have any idea about IBM's presence in the valley??

My wife would like to move back to Tucson, but she last lived there in 1974. We like visiting the town and it is a lot nicer than what happened to Phoenix.

We are curious as to the impact on the housing market. We have noticed that Tucson prices are headed downward once again. IF this layoff contributes to the downward pressure on housing, we could get more house and better location just by waiting. We are in no hurry to move, our local market is appreciating at a rapid clip.

The number of IBM employees in Tucson is roughly 1200, most at the Science and Tech Park. IBM has been down-sizing in Tucson for years - in the 1980s, it had 5000 employees in Tucson, mainly working on tape and other storage products.

IBM does an annual "re-balancing" or "re-mixing" of staff generally beginning with the new year. Invariably, there are some layoffs associated with this. For example, in 2013, IBM spent ~$1 billion on their restructuring - almost double what they are doing this year. That year, fewer than 10,000 jobs were cut globally. Tucson lost about 70 jobs.

Based on the $600 million charge that IBM is taking this year, it is estimated that fewer (maybe a lot fewer) than 10,000 jobs total will be cut this year. These cuts and remixes will occur through the year (not all at once as the Forbes article suggested). My guess (and it's a guess only) is that 50 jobs at most will be lost in Tucson.

Oh, Forbes simply quoted Cringely. They apparently have no clue that he's an attention-seeking rumor-monger.

Here's an article from Ziff-Davis re the IBM restructuring this year that provides a little more insight =>

​IBM dismisses massive layoff report as workforce remixing continues | ZDNet

[beTucsonan]

Originally Posted by 509

We are curious as to the impact on the housing market. We have noticed that Tucson prices are headed downward once again. IF this layoff contributes to the downward pressure on housing, we could get more house and better location just by waiting. We are in no hurry to move, our local market is appreciating at a rapid clip.

I have no information about the IBM situation, but I will say that if you are going to watch local employer layoffs and closures in order to time your move, you will never move here. There is always an axe over some Tucson area employer or the other for as long as I can remember, be it the potential closure or downsizing of Davis Monthan Air Force Base, Raytheon losing a contract here or there, the relative constancy of IBM's troubles, etc., it's always here. I'd say that right now the prices are pretty low. Not as low as they could be, but not bad, and almost certainly trending upwards if you take the long view. I'd also say that even though the prices have recently been lower than they are now, nobody - not current or future residents -wants that situation to repeat itself as the local economy may not survive another such downturn.

[goldenglory18]

Prices are most certainly trending upwards....