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The entire point is moot -- a huge gap remains between the fantasies peddled by the dreamers, and what current technology can actually support and, more to the point, adapt to a mass-market.
The experiments proposed by Google and a handful of others with access to large amounts of resources are conducted on closed courses -- with all the subtleties of the local system well-known and outside factors tightly controlled; it simply isn't like that in the real world.
Faith in "driverless cars" seems likely to meet the same end as the prediction, now at least half a century old, that the average American would one day own a personal airplane.
for personal reasons, i don't have much faith in google's driverless car project.
but the average american could probably afford their own Cessna before they could afford a home in many, if not most cities.
Isn't a plane kind of a white elephant. Hangar fees, maintenance and such?
Not very useful either.
Hangar fees and maintenance aren't really THAT bad. Maybe a grand for yearly inspection/maintenance for most people. Hangar fees are maybe $300 a month. Obviously more in some areas and less in others. Again, not out of reach for most people. It's just the benefit of owning an aircraft? Not really there.
I'd hate to see this thread turn into a flame-fest; I don't doubt that certain parts of the technology that would make driving safer and less burdensome are turning up here and there.
But the point I sought to make in my Posts #'s 3 & 8 was that a "complete" self-driving technology would require constant input of a large number of variables and probable extraneous factors -- not to mention a huge database of geographic knowledge to adapt it to local roads.
Major breakthroughs in this endeavor would create one large, and immediate beneficiary -- commercial highway transportation. But none of the potential beneficiaries seem willing to demonstrate much interest; probably because none of them, from taxicabs to intercity trucking fleets, want to shoulder the obligation of providing any of their own infrastructure.
If "driverless" vehicles are to move any closer to reality, the first steps will likely involve either city streets with a well-defined and uniform grid pattern, or a handful of superhighways in flat country, where larger vehicles are sometimes permitted in return for higher tolls.
Given advances in nav systems, GPS technology, mapping, electronics and computing power since the 1970s, I am not sure any study from 45 years ago is necessarily pertinent.
Adding a couple hours to a weekly commute, if the commute becomes productive or leisure time seems a great trade off.
Making existing roadways more efficient vs. constructing additional roadways may pay for itself.
Imagine if self-driving vehicles could merge seamlessly vs bottlenecking as drivers try to gain a few car lengths! Could actually eliminate gridlock in some cases.
Anyone who has flown in a small plane along the interstate knows that except for wrecks, most of the highway is empty space punctuated every few hundred yards by clusters of cars. and, it is in these clusters that most accidents occur. That is why the first step will be to give control of the interstate traffic to the roadway electronics. Our highways could handle two to three times the number of vehicles but for the insistence of drivers in clustering around lower moving vehicles.
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