2010 census predictions

[durf]

The census 2010 are trickling in state by state. Chicago is little shy of 2.7 million. San Jose's should be anywhere from 979,000 to 1,000,012. The preliminary was 998,000. If I make a prediction, it will be 987,000. The numbers will definitely come out in the next 2 to 3 weeks. As for San Diego, I think 1,293,000. San Antonio will most likely be 1,430,000 and Dallas will be 1,321,000.

[boltsfanofsdpop1376]

Originally Posted by durf

The census 2010 are trickling in state by state. Chicago is little shy of 2.7 million. San Jose's should be anywhere from 979,000 to 1,000,012. The preliminary was 998,000. If I make a prediction, it will be 987,000. The numbers will definitely come out in the next 2 to 3 weeks. As for San Diego, I think 1,293,000. San Antonio will most likely be 1,430,000 and Dallas will be 1,321,000.

Dallas' population is 1,197,618. San Diego is 8th .

[durf]

revised numbers:

New York: 8,348,000
Los Angeles: 4,089,000
Chicago: 2,695,000
Houston: 2,099,000
Phoenix: 1,602,000
San Antonio: 1,327,000
Philadelphia: 1,295,000
San Diego: 1,259,000
San Jose: 987,000

This should be close to the actual 2010 census figure and fairly close to accurate count.

[durf]

Dallas: 1,197,000

[drqhome]

There is a reason why the Raleigh, Durham, and Chapel Hill MSA was split. The Greensboro, Winston-Salem, and High Point MSA was split at the same time. In the 1980 Census, metros were designated as Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The Census Bureau required that at least 15% of the labor force, of a suburban county, must commute into the central county to work in order for that suburban county to be a part of the SMSA. In 1993, the designation was changed to MSA, from SMSA, and the minimum requirement was raised to 25%. In this case, Wake is the central county and, the percentage of commuters from suburban Durham did not meet the 25% minimum threshold for Durham County to continue as part of the Raleigh MSA. Not only did this change split the two metros mentioned above. It also dropped Rowan and Lincoln Counties from the Charlotte MSA in the 1990 Census.

[pvande55]

A lot of pundits were predicting CA would lose population share. Egg on their face. I was expecting FL to replace NY as third. Didn't happen because many of those moving there die sooner. Only one state lost population; nobody was surprised it was MI.

[nei]

Originally Posted by durf

revised numbers:

New York: 8,348,000
Los Angeles: 4,089,000
Chicago: 2,695,000
Houston: 2,099,000
Phoenix: 1,602,000
San Antonio: 1,327,000
Philadelphia: 1,295,000
San Diego: 1,259,000
San Jose: 987,000

This should be close to the actual 2010 census figure and fairly close to accurate count.

Way too low for Philly, too high for phoenix. About right for Houston, a bit high for san jose and LA. New York sounds about right, maybe very slightly too low

I think 3.5%-4% growth for NYC is reasonable, assuming the ratio of NY State to NYC growth is similar to the 1990s. NY state grew by 2.1% last decade.

[JazzyTallGuy]

Originally Posted by gogetta

Michigan is guaranteed to have a decline in population. I was reading usa today at an airport and it showed every state and their population losses/gains since the start of the recession. It showed that only two states have lost population. The two being Maine and Michigan. It showed Maine having lost roughly 1,000-2,000 and Michigan having lost 30,000 plus. The two most rapidly declining cities in America are Flint, Michigan and New Orleans, LA.

From personal observation I can tell you there are city blocks in Flint, Michigan that look like a bombed out war zone. It is a city that has been truly economically DEVASTED.