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There was a bunch of articles the last several days trying to spin or discuss what seems to be the freefall of used EV prices.
EVs lost 30% of their value in the last 12 months as ICE vehicles lost only 5%.
There was artifical demand that hit the new car market with the tax incentives and reason two is nobody wants to own a brick, and demand is just not there for them.
What has happened is EVs are and have been grossly overpriced. I have one. I bought it used. 20k depreciation in a year and 7k miles. That's why Tesla sells. The Model 3 is a Civic (Si to CTR) at generally Civic prices. The Polestar 2 is an electric Civic they're trying to sell for 50 to 70k. Nice car that will never sell well at those prices.
The legacy automakers whose apparent business model is to use EVs to extract the normal 15k EV premium have an issue. They've run out of buyers who want to pay more for EVs. They can either cut production which has exceeded dand for overpriced EVs and count on the competition doing the same and accept that they aren't going to sell as many overpriced cars as they hoped or they can continue to sell more EVs by selling them at equivalent prices to gas powered ones.
Yes, EV prices have fallen more than other vehicles over the last year. There are a number of factors underlying this decline.
First and foremost, as the text under the OP's linked video notes: "It is mainly due to Tesla lowering its prices of its new cars."
So that's Tesla dropping its prices - as it has continued to lower manufacturing costs, it's able to do that. Tesla is still making money though, and it's unit sales continue rapid growth. Tesla is by far the biggest EV seller, so the direct effect of its price drops on new cars is large. Note that this also puts competitive pricing pressure on new EVs of other brands, as well as on used Teslas.
There are other EVs from traditional automakers that have received either a lukewarm or a cool market reception, in part because they just aren't that great relative to Teslas and relative to their pricing... there have also been some recalls. This includes certain models from Mazda, Toyota, Subaru, and to some extent also Ford, VW and GM - though the latter three are doing far better than the former three.
Another factor has been the overbuilding of production capacity, even by some automakers with models selling relatively well - Ford and VW come to mind. You have maybe a dozen automakers introducing dozens of new EV models into the marketplace within 5 years, and even if there is an overall climate of market growth, it's not enough to absorb all these EVs flooding into the market at once.
So, these are volatile or turbulent EV markets - it's a time of rapid change. Not every automaker is producing home run products with their first generation of EVs. The vehicle technology and manufacturing technology are rapidly changing. Some companies are making strategic mistakes, some aren't innovating enough. There will be winners and losers.
Overall though, the EV market is still growing at a good clip - including in the US, which is not the hottest EV market. The numbers for 2023 aren't in the books yet, but 2023 US pure electric (BEV) sales are expected to be over 1 million units for this year.
Nissan was a pioneer in the modern BEV market with their Leaf. The Leaf has not kept pace with innovations for other automakers though and Leaf sales have fallen. Their new Ariya is actually selling better, despite being in a higher price class - it's not the hottest, but it's more competitive than the Leaf. That said, reports are that even the Ariya is heading mainly towards leasing. They haven't been a flop like Mazda, Toyota and Subaru EVs, but I'd call Nissan one of the losers in 2023.
Meanwhile, after a slow start, the upstart Rivian has made steady progress with production volumes of their premium R1T and R1S models, and they will likely wind up selling over 50,000 units in 2023 - particularly when considering their pricing between $75-$100k, that's pretty good. I'd call Rivian one of the winners in 2023 - who would have imagined they'd outsell Nissan, Mazda, Toyota and Subaru? All those Japanese EVs added together will probably sell fewer units than Rivian in the US this year.
Last edited by OutdoorLover; 12-12-2023 at 05:38 AM..
Awesome news. I want a Rivian in a year or two. The longer the anti’s shun EVs for political reasons, the better. Overall, the situation for those of us who want them, is fantastic. Mass adoption would trigger new taxation, higher prices, charger competition, etc.
Awesome news. I want a Rivian in a year or two. The longer the anti’s shun EVs for political reasons, the better. Overall, the situation for those of us who want them, is fantastic. Mass adoption would trigger new taxation, higher prices, charger competition, etc.
Yes, Rivian also sells electric delivery vans to Amazon and they recently announced that the contractual period of exclusivity for Amazon is ending and so they'll have the opportunity to offer these vans more widely, which should also help their bottom line. Rivian looks like they're going to make it as "the other" new American automaker beyond Tesla. A few other new companies like Lucid are kind of on the bubble right now.
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, 615' Elevation, Zone 8b - originally from SF Bay Area
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Originally Posted by OutdoorLover
Yes, Rivian also sells electric delivery vans to Amazon and they recently announced that the contractual period of exclusivity for Amazon is ending and so they'll have the opportunity to offer these vans more widely, which should also help their bottom line. Rivian looks like they're going to make it as "the other" new American automaker beyond Tesla. A few other new companies like Lucid are kind of on the bubble right now.
Those are the perfect use for EVs, driving around the same city all day and going less than the 150 mile range, and unlike the typical USPS, UPS, or Fedex ICE van they won't be idling while they run to the porch.
EVs will soon be subscription or lease based. I wouldn't buy one, just lease it and give it back. The batteries are just too expensive to replace so let the car makers retrofit with new ones at their cost.
Those are the perfect use for EVs, driving around the same city all day and going less than the 150 mile range, and unlike the typical USPS, UPS, or Fedex ICE van they won't be idling while they run to the porch.
Agreed - delivery van is the killer app for EVs.
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