2023 Metro Estimates (townhouses, neighborhood, luxury)

[mjlo]

Originally Posted by Heel82

It’s mostly just a trivia thing at this point. Name two cities that are in each other’s MSA. Does any where else in the US have that happen? Actually curious.

Holland MI:
25k people live in Grand Rapids MSA.
12k people live in the Holland MI Micropolitan area.

If you cross 32nd Ave you are no longer in Grand Rapids MSA, but you are still in the city of Holland. But it is not 2 cities if that matters.

Is there any other statistical area where the core city isn't even based in the county it's named after?

[masssachoicetts]

Originally Posted by manitopiaaa

One mystery nobody has talked about is the massive chasm between New York (rapidly shrinking) and New Jersey (rapidly growing).

It’s not just at the city level, but the suburban. Westchester (NY) is declining while Bergen (NJ) grew by over 4k. Nassau and Suffolk are shrinking while Morris, Middlesex, Essex, Hudson and Union all have very robust growth.

I would assume it’s a mix of (a) housing and NIMBYism (far stronger in Long Island and Westchester than in New Jersey), (b) wealth flight from New York as a result of the progressive Dem supermajorities in the legislature (versus the moderates/machines who run New Jersey), (c) New York City fiscal problems (which the State will have to intervene to address, which may mean higher taxes for New York suburbanites) and (d) Long Island has always been more conservative, White ethnic (Italians, Jews, Irish, etc) and law-and-order, so my sense is there’s a cultural exodus to the Sunbelt as well.

We build so much in NJ. Whereas, NY, does not. A $2,000 apartment in Bayonne NJ will be $3,000 in LI, $4,000 in White Plains and $6,000 in Manhattan.

The cost to build in NYS is insanity. Towns like Beacon (iykyk…) have new apartments going for $4,000 on a one bed. Townhomes are 1-2+ mil. Beacon….

Also, subjective, but NJ rocks for us young folk. Its like they designed these cities with us in mind. Hoboken, Jersey City, Red Bank, Harrison, Asbury Park, Morristown, Somerville, New Brunswick, The Ironbound, etc... North Jersey is scattered with cool vibrant places that don't kill the bank. Hoboken happy hours from 3-7 PM are as low as $3 Mixed Drinks and $2 drafts. I work in Manhattan and have been out, maybe twice in NYC? Everyone goes back home to JC or Hoboken now. Try to replicate that same experience in Manhattan in 2024, its easily 2-3x the price. it really makes you wonder, what are the benefits of living in NYS when you could be in NJ?

[Spade]

Originally Posted by ShenardL

Harris County seems huge: 1,778 square miles. It's larger than the top 5 metro Atlanta counties combined: Gwinnett (437 square miles), Fulton (534 square miles), Dekalb (271 square miles), Cobb (345 square miles), Clayton (144 square miles).

To be fair, probably around half of Harris County is actually developed. On freeways, entering some spots in Harris County would seem you are about to travel through a sparse county but in reality, you're in the core county of 7 and a half million people and a county of nearly 5 million people.

[Phil P]

Originally Posted by Ice_Major

I don't think its people loving Texas, but rather they tolerate it since it checks so many boxes regarding jobs, amenities, and affordable housing. Completely anectodical but I’ve met many people living in Texas who plan to move once the necessity of working is no longer prevalent in their lives. Going forward will be interesting see how Texas demographics will be affected by boomer retirement and the increase of the cost of living for the major Texas metros.

That's why I'm bullish on New Mexico. We already get all the Texans coming in on vacation, give it another 10 years and they'll want to retire here. NOBODY wants to retire in Dallas, and Phoenix will be like 140F next decade. Colorado has priced em all out. Arkansas will probably get a lot of TX retirees for those who want to go east. Unless there's a steady stream of incoming migration, I do wonder who will buy all the houses as people move on to their next phase of life.

[whaletown]

Glad to see Tulsa's growth continue to trend upwards. Some positive things happening in the city. Downtown is continuing to increase residential units at a nice pace. NYU recently announced they will be opening a Tulsa campus downtown in the fall.

At this rate, we should crack the top 50 biggest MSAs list before 2030 .

[ion475]

Originally Posted by Duderino

With all due respect, I'm not sure how you could come to that conclusion at all.

It's clear that growth has downshifted dramatically in pretty much every large metro area, especially in core counties, and we really can't point to COVID anymore as a reason. That should be pretty alarming for urbanists.

Let see...

DC Area: (2022-2023)
"Core":
Washington DC: +8023 (+1.20%)
Arlington County VA: +484 (+0.21%)
Alexandria city VA: +185 (+0.12%)

Inner Suburban Counties:
Fairfax County VA: +2569 (+0.23%)
Fairfax city VA: +392 (+1.58%)
Falls Church city VA: +196 (+1.35%)
Montgomery County MD: +5407 (+0.51%)
Prince George's County MD: +450 (+0.05%)

2nd Ring Suburbs:
Prince William County VA: +2628 (+0.54%)
Manassas city VA: +23 (0.05%)
Manassas Park city VA: -332 (-1.99%)
Loudoun County VA: +3555 (+0.82%)
Charles County MD: +1862 (+1.09%)

Other suburbs:
Stafford County VA: +2259 (+1.38%)
Fredericksburg city VA: +280 (+0.98%)
Spotsylvania County VA: +2760 (+1.88%)
Frederick County MD: +5851 (+2.03%)

Exurbs:
Fauquier County VA: +488 (+0.65%)
Clarke County VA: +135 (+0.88%)
Warren County VA: +439 (+1.06%)
Madison County VA: +120 (+0.86%)
Calvert County MD: +169 (+0.18%) [I believe this is no longer part of Washington DC MSA]
Jefferson County WV: +786 (+1.33%)
==================
So it's somewhat of a mix - DC itself grew back from its low in 2022, but still isn't back to 2020 Census level. Growth in both Fairfax and Montgomery County are behind that of DC percentage-wise. Not a lot of growth in Arlington and Alexandria.

Growth in areas like Loudoun County seems to be slowing down slightly, but still doing well. The Fredericskburg area continue to grow like crazy (adding onto traffic on forever congested I-95 south) with all the suburban developments.

Then there's Frederick Co MD (my home), continuing to be the fastest growing county in Maryland by miles.

The bottom line is that, yes, outer suburban growths drive population gain like most metro areas around DC, but DC itself is also building new housing (mainly apartments) left and right, which actually help stabilized the rents within DC (it hasn't really gone up for years even though the metro area was growing quite a bit).

[Dallaz]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

According to the county estimates Boston proper is likely still
Lagging its metro significantly (lost ~300 people) . Middlesex had ~70% of the metro growth.

If it’s true Cambridge/Somerville/Everett/Malden are outgrowing Boston significantly they have the same COL issues, Boston really would have to consider what the city is doing wrong.

Denver is also undershooting its metro growth

Dallas County only grew by 6,000. So DFW is having an immense amount of sprawl. As the core just isn’t filling in.

Houston is getting much more infill. Harris county gained 55,000 people in that 12 months

The core of Dallas infilling, but that doesn’t translate to huge spikes in population, like brand-new greenfield development in the suburbs. It’s a combination of expensive housing and NIMBYism that’s slowing down overall population growth.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by Duderino

I really think that's a simplistic take.

There's no doubt that Pittsburgh in 2024 is light years ahead of where it was in 1984. It would be laughable if anyone tried to debate that. Wealth, educational attainment, innovation, venture capital levels--you name it. Pittsburgh is doing extremely well on all of those metrics.

Pittsburgh's estimated loss (like that of Cleveland or Buffalo) is due to a lack of births; plain and simple. And a lack of immigration (its immigrant infrastructure is improving, but it needs to be FAR more robust).

If you look at domestic migration in the Pittsburgh area, it's a loss of less than 5,000, which is far lower than any pretty much any other non-Sun Belt metro on a per capita basis (less than 5,000 out of 2,4 million), versus, say even Bridgeport, CT, which has a population under 1 million and domestic loss of around -7,000.

Is there a city worse off than 1984?

I’m talking in comparison to other Rustbelt cities not in absolute terms. Cleveland’s job numbers have been quite bad since 2000 compared to its Rustbelt peers though.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

Is there a city worse off than 1984?

I’m talking in comparison to other Rustbelt cities not in absolute terms. Cleveland’s job numbers have been quite bad since 2000 compared to its Rustbelt peers though.

Net domestic migration (a.k.a. "voting with their feet") (2020-2023)

+13,528 Indianapolis
+3,660 Kansas City
-658 Cincinnati
-1,602 Columbus
-2,602 Grand Rapids
-5,342 Hartford
-7,537 Providence
-11,297 Buffalo
-11,896 Pittsburgh
-16,293 Rochester
-22,522 Cleveland
-25,893 St. Louis
-28,191 Milwaukee
-40,102 Baltimore
-48,197 Minneapolis/St. Paul
-54,208 Philadelphia
-73,856 Detroit
-137,422 Boston
-179,236 Washington DC
-305,428 Chicago
-974,919 New York


Natural increase (a.k.a. "births minus deaths") (2020-2023)

+159,846 New York
+97,521 Washington DC
+45,227 Chicago
+43,187 Minneapolis/St. Paul
+24,007 Boston
+19,671 Columbus
+16,780 Indianapolis
+14,506 Kansas City
+13,201 Philadelphia
+10,167 Grand Rapids
+9,984 Baltimore
+7,630 Cincinnati
+4,706 Milwaukee
-1,840 Rochester
-2,506 Hartford
-5,523 Providence
-6,279 Buffalo
-7,656 Detroit
-9,057 St. Louis
-15,097 Cleveland
-31,064 Pittsburgh


Nobody chooses to be born, and few people choose to die. Conversely, most people choose to move to or from a metropolitan area. Among all major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest, Pittsburgh is in the top half in terms of net domestic migration, and all eight of the metropolitan areas above it are some combination of a) a state capital, b) significantly smaller, and c) never heavily industrialized. At least one of the aforementioned three criteria applies to all eight of them.

Furthermore, retirees leaving for warmer climates can very conceivably account for most of -11,896 in the span of three years, given the age profile of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. You know all those old people that everybody laughed at Pittsburgh for having in abundance during the 1990s and 2000s? They're all dying or retiring to warmer climates now. There's your population loss.

By the way, these annual estimates are notorious for being utter trash when it comes to Pittsburgh. In 2007, the estimates said the population of Pittsburgh city proper fell below 300,000, and behind Toledo. Two decennial Censuses later, neither damn one has happened. Furthermore, estimates from 2012-2019 said the Pittsburgh metropolitan area was losing population relative to 2010, but the decennial Census in 2020 proved that wrong too.

On a related note, even in the 2000s, the working-age (20-64) population of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area grew, which simply does not happen in a moribund metropolitan area. In addition, Boston and Providence are the only major metropolitan areas in the Northeast or Midwest to grow their incomes at a higher rate than Pittsburgh from 2000-2021. Those are facts, not hype.

[btownboss4]

Originally Posted by Craziaskowboi

Net domestic migration (a.k.a. "voting with their feet") (2020-2023)

+13,528 Indianapolis
+3,660 Kansas City
-658 Cincinnati
-1,602 Columbus
-2,602 Grand Rapids
-5,342 Hartford
-7,537 Providence
-11,297 Buffalo
-11,896 Pittsburgh
-16,293 Rochester
-22,522 Cleveland
-25,893 St. Louis
-28,191 Milwaukee
-40,102 Baltimore
-48,197 Minneapolis/St. Paul
-54,208 Philadelphia
-73,856 Detroit
-137,422 Boston
-179,236 Washington DC
-305,428 Chicago
-974,919 New York


Natural increase (a.k.a. "births minus deaths") (2020-2023)

+159,846 New York
+97,521 Washington DC
+45,227 Chicago
+43,187 Minneapolis/St. Paul
+24,007 Boston
+19,671 Columbus
+16,780 Indianapolis
+14,506 Kansas City
+13,201 Philadelphia
+10,167 Grand Rapids
+9,984 Baltimore
+7,630 Cincinnati
+4,706 Milwaukee
-1,840 Rochester
-2,506 Hartford
-5,523 Providence
-6,279 Buffalo
-7,656 Detroit
-9,057 St. Louis
-15,097 Cleveland
-31,064 Pittsburgh


Nobody chooses to be born, and few people choose to die. Conversely, most people choose to move to or from a metropolitan area. Among all major metropolitan areas in the Northeast and Midwest, Pittsburgh is in the top half in terms of net domestic migration, and all eight of the metropolitan areas above it are some combination of a) a state capital, b) significantly smaller, and c) never heavily industrialized. At least one of the aforementioned three criteria applies to all eight of them.

Furthermore, retirees leaving for warmer climates can very conceivably account for most of -11,896 in the span of three years, given the age profile of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area. You know all those old people that everybody laughed at Pittsburgh for having in abundance during the 1990s and 2000s? They're all dying or retiring to warmer climates now. There's your population loss.

By the way, these annual estimates are notorious for being utter trash when it comes to Pittsburgh. In 2007, the estimates said the population of Pittsburgh city proper fell below 300,000, and behind Toledo. Two decennial Censuses later, neither damn one has happened. Furthermore, estimates from 2012-2019 said the Pittsburgh metropolitan area was losing population relative to 2010, but the decennial Census in 2020 proved that wrong too.

On a related note, even in the 2000s, the working-age (20-64) population of the Pittsburgh metropolitan area grew, which simply does not happen in a moribund metropolitan area. In addition, Boston and Providence are the only major metropolitan areas in the Northeast or Midwest to grow their incomes at a higher rate than Pittsburgh from 2000-2021. Those are facts, not hype.

Yeah I wouldn’t say NYC or Philly have built anywhere near the positive hype Pittsburgh has though. In fact the media cycle around NYC is a constant doom loop.


I’d also say high value real estate markets cause entirely different dynamics. The net negative in say Boston leaving for somewhere cheaper is because high property values allow people to very easily “cash out” and buy in like Charlotte mortgage free, perhaps even as like a 32 year old professional. Let alone a retiree that has almost entirely equity.

Plus immigrants are people too and most Midwest cities fall on their face trying to attract immigrants.

Also I did say in the Original post, estimates are to be taken with a heap of salt. After all the 2020 cebsus had some huge misses both ways.