2023 Metro Estimates (homes, high income, living in)
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Am I the only one not bothered by NYC MSA losing a few people? It's the largest city and metro in the country. The city alone has 8.5 million and the metro is around 20 million - Isn't that enough?
I'd like to see other cities pick up the slack. Certainly Chicago has room to grow - it just need to get some of its crime problems under control. If LA continues to densify and expand its rail network, it'll hit NYC levels as well.
I'm not thrilled about Dallas and Houston type cities constantly growing. They're really just huge suburbs with little public transit.
The issue with loosing people is it usually means dead “vacant” infrastructure. Or ghost towns.
Am I the only one not bothered by NYC MSA losing a few people? It's the largest city and metro in the country. The city alone has 8.5 million and the metro is around 20 million - Isn't that enough?
I'd like to see other cities pick up the slack. Certainly Chicago has room to grow - it just need to get some of its crime problems under control. If LA continues to densify and expand its rail network, it'll hit NYC levels as well.
I'm not thrilled about Dallas and Houston type cities constantly growing. They're really just huge suburbs with little public transit.
Yeah it’s kind of an issue NYC is driving people away. It speaks to a problem with public policy.
NYC’s housing policy is hurting those who want to stay but the math doesn’t work out. Americas great cities should be gaining population but LA, NY, Chicago, SF has massive policy failures driving people out
Boston is in the same boat but it’s absurdly high wage niche is big enough relative to the metro at the moment that it’s above water
Yeah it’s kind of an issue NYC is driving people away. It speaks to a problem with public policy.
NYC’s housing policy is hurting those who want to stay but the math doesn’t work out. Americas great cities should be gaining population but LA, NY, Chicago, SF has massive policy failures driving people out
Boston is in the same boat but it’s absurdly high wage niche is big enough relative to the metro at the moment that it’s above water
What is it about their housing policy that's driving people away? It's the densest 310 mi/sq you'll find anywhere in the country.
If you look at their 2024-2054 outlook linked above (released this January), they have a chart of net immigration that includes all types (including undocumented). What they say is:
"CBO estimates that net immigration to the United States was 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. Those estimates are larger than net immigration from 2010 to 2019, which averaged 900,000 people per year."
So according to the CBO, the U.S. added 3.3 million net migrants in 2023, while the Census only has 1.1 million net migrants in its tally.
So there's 2.2 million in migrant population growth not included in these counts. In other words, the Census is showing 1.6 million in population growth while CBO has 3.8 million, so every MSA/CSA number here is undercounting by a significant margin depending on where that 2.2 million 'missing' is.
Look at Phoenix in the top 10 now. That wouldn't be the case if Boston's MSA wasn't somewhat shortchanged IMO (as evidenced by the delta compared to its CSA).
I expect Miami to eventually take the #7 slot just behind Atlanta.
Orlando and Charlotte have inched past St. Louis and is next to be surpassed if trends hold. Wow. I will have to mentally adjust to account for the former two being actual peers in size and economy as the latter two.
Look at Phoenix in the top 10 now. That wouldn't be the case if Boston's MSA wasn't somewhat shortchanged IMO (as evidenced by the delta compared to its CSA).
Agreed. I also think San Francisco, and to a lesser extent Detroit are also short changed in this regard.
Agreed. I also think San Francisco, and to a lesser extent Detroit are also short changed in this regard.
Yes. Boston and SF feel more in line with a 6+ metro. Not quite 8 but not as low as 4. I agree with Detroit too, as well as Cleveland and Raleigh Durham.
On the flip side there are even more metros that are overpaid. It doesn't come out to a ton of people, but quite a bit of land area. DFW and Houston have pretty sizeable far flung suburban counties that you sometimes wonder how is this still the metro. People say that these metros are only in the top because the MSA formula was generous so their 10k sq miles put them on top, but Houston's core county and alone adds near 5M people. There are counties that are 1000sq miles that add like 30k people.
Quote:
Originally Posted by manitopiaaa
Reminder that these Census estimates are based on growth rates of +1,643,484 from July 1, 2022-2023.
We know that these numbers do not include undocumented migrants, including those seeking asylum/refugee status.
If you look at their 2024-2054 outlook linked above (released this January), they have a chart of net immigration that includes all types (including undocumented). What they say is:
"CBO estimates that net immigration to the United States was 2.6 million in 2022 and 3.3 million in 2023. Those estimates are larger than net immigration from 2010 to 2019, which averaged 900,000 people per year."
So according to the CBO, the U.S. added 3.3 million net migrants in 2023, while the Census only has 1.1 million net migrants in its tally.
So there's 2.2 million in migrant population growth not included in these counts. In other words, the Census is showing 1.6 million in population growth while CBO has 3.8 million, so every MSA/CSA number here is undercounting by a significant margin depending on where that 2.2 million 'missing' is.
If that's the case then places like Houston are severely undercounted despite the already rapid growth. I know a lot were bussed to NY and other cities, but that is a fraction of what stayed in border states like Texas.
I wouldn't be surprised if Houston was closer to 8M people.
Am I the only one not bothered by NYC MSA losing a few people? It's the largest city and metro in the country. The city alone has 8.5 million and the metro is around 20 million - Isn't that enough?
I'd like to see other cities pick up the slack. Certainly Chicago has room to grow - it just need to get some of its crime problems under control. If LA continues to densify and expand its rail network, it'll hit NYC levels as well.
I'm not thrilled about Dallas and Houston type cities constantly growing. They're really just huge suburbs with little public transit.
The NYC area loosing people is fine. Its overpriced, overhyped and overpopulated.
However, the issue I have is that I do not believe for a damn second the MSA lost 500k people in that time frame due to conflicting information. The region’s output of residential units is significant, vacancy is low, etc. they contradicted themselves. Absolutely no way.
Like always.. we wait until the 2030 census results in 7 years when everything is revised upwards.
What is it about their housing policy that's driving people away? It's the densest 310 mi/sq you'll find anywhere in the country.
A law was passed in 2019 making landlprds renovate their apartments and something akin to rent control. I dont know exactly but a lot of landlords rather keep their apartment empty than fill it back up.
Therefore, in 2023 we had about 60,000 empty apartments in NYC alone. The supply and demand is just not mathing. Especially Manhattan... $5k for the average apartment. Tf. Il pay paying well under half of that in the Jersey City area with a balcony, free parking, parks around me… in a newer amenity building built in 2009. Next to two transit options. My rent would be well over $4k in Brooklyn or Queens. Never mind, Manhattan of all places.
A law was passed in 2019 making landlprds renovate their apartments and something akin to rent control. I dont know exactly but a lot of landlords rather keep their apartment empty than fill it back up.
Therefore, in 2023 we had about 60,000 empty apartments in NYC alone. The supply and demand is just not mathing. Especially Manhattan... $5k for the average apartment. Tf. Il pay paying well under half of that in the Jersey City area with a balcony, free parking, parks around me… in a newer amenity building built in 2009. Next to two transit options. My rent would be well over $4k in Brooklyn or Queens. Never mind, Manhattan of all places.
NYC has ~1.5 million rental units in NYC 60,000 vacant apartments sounds like a lot but that’s 4% vacancy which for apartments is actually relatively low (long term average is ~7% nationally) l
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