Houston Housing Market - 2022 (League City, Dickinson: 2013, rent, HOA fees)

[Jtxg]

From Houston Association of Realtors:

January 2020: Median sales price $234,000. Average Sales Price $291,000.

May 2022: Median Sales price: $351,000. Average Sales Price: $440,670

May 2022 single family inventory supply = 0.3 months.

With such a short supply and a large number of people still relocating to the area, I can't see values declining drastically. In the early 2000s (think 2005-2007) the area had a 6+ month supply of inventory. BUT, even if home values decreased by 20% (haven't seen any economists predict this), but even if it did, anyone who bought their home prior to January 2020 is probably still sitting pretty good. I do think we probably have hit a plateau, or for technical stock traders, a resistance point. I'd be curious on the homes with price decreases, if their starting asking price was already pushed beyond what comps would support. And, if that's the case, then the price decreases don't mean as much. For example. Comps say $500k price. Seller lists at $525k. 30 days later they lower to $500k and it sells for that. That price decrease doesn't mean values are going down, it means they're holding steady.

The other thing I think a lot of people are forgetting - with the large number of people who either moved or refinanced to a sub-3% rate in the last two years, I don't think you're going to see those people sell their homes any time soon, unless an extreme change in their personal life comes up. Not too many people are going to trade in their 2.85% mortgage for a 5.5% mortgage. Just my two cents.

[gwarnecke]

Originally Posted by Jtxg

The other thing I think a lot of people are forgetting - with the large number of people who either moved or refinanced to a sub-3% rate in the last two years, I don't think you're going to see those people sell their homes any time soon, unless an extreme change in their personal life comes up. Not too many people are going to trade in their 2.85% mortgage for a 5.5% mortgage. Just my two cents.

Very true - I think this factor will keep a lid on supply of starter- to mid-range homes on the market, which will provide some price support.

FWIW, supply is still fairly tight in my part of Houston. The only homes sitting on the market or offering major price reductions are those in awkward locations (ie on/near a busy street, too close to a freeway, or with a power line running through the middle of the yard) or those that photograph well but have obviously been lipsticked and need lots of work.

As more companies return to the office, I do wonder (and, to some extent, do hope) that buyer preferences will shift towards close-in areas and/or areas near major business districts. The 1 hour commute from the far suburbs that was palatable 1-2 days a week may be less appealing 4 days a week, especially at today's gas prices.

[Jtxg]

Originally Posted by gwarnecke

As more companies return to the office, I do wonder (and, to some extent, do hope) that buyer preferences will shift towards close-in areas and/or areas near major business districts. The 1 hour commute from the far suburbs that was palatable 1-2 days a week may be less appealing 4 days a week, especially at today's gas prices.

Yea I don't know how people do the commute from far-out suburbs into the major business districts. When I first started my company, I would visit my retail automotive dealership clients typically once or twice a month. It's just not needed now, and anything that needs to be communicated can be done via phone or email. I've become so used to not commuting anywhere, that to drive 10 minutes to Lowes Home Improvement seems like a trek - and that's not even during rush hour LOL.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by mojo101

I dont see any new houses being built in HOuston or near by,if this is the case,then house price would not drop much

Yeah, you’re definitely wrong on this one.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

The housing prices falling is (in my opinion) the same story as the stock prices that have fell. We “recovered” too fast from the COVID crash.

[Jtxg]

Originally Posted by ParaguaneroSwag

The housing prices falling is (in my opinion) the same story as the stock prices that have fell. We “recovered” too fast from the COVID crash.

Maybe it would be the same story, except I've not seen a drastic change in housing prices, at least by me. Some price reductions, but they're still priced higher than the most similar sold comps. I think the Houston Association of Realtors releases their June data some time this week. It'll be interesting the see. Maybe inventory will go from 0.3 months supply to 0.6 months? Either way, we'll still be flirting with near-record sales prices.....unlike the stock market.

[Htown2013]

Given the ~3% property tax and nearly ~1% total property insurance (2022 rates seems extortionary), living in Houston does NOT seem cheap.

[TallGreengrass]

Cypress/Northwest Harris county is still building and selling

[detachable arm]

It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy now will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $15,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down or pop. The gains are permanent.

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by detachable arm

It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy now will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $15,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down or pop. The gains are permanent.

No because there isn’t an ever growing supply of wealthy people. Inflation eventually returns to the labor market