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Throughout the pandemic, policymakers and labor economists alike have sounded the alarm over the increasing number of people fleeing Massachusetts for other states — and what their exodus could mean for the state’s future.
Now, a new report has shed some light on who, exactly, these runaways are. And it probably does not bode well for the Bay State’s long-term economic competitiveness.
Everyone is leaving except college-age students, who are growing. But middle-income, high-income, prime working-age adults, and white non-Latino people(-33k)left the most.
Here is the net difference PER YEAR between those coming to Massachusetts and those leaving
White, non-Latino people(-23k)
People of color, including Latino(-4k)
Low income (-1k)
Middle income (-14k)
High Income (-17k)
No college degree (-13k)
Bachelors Degrees or higher(-19k)
18-24(+7k)
25-44(-23k)
45-64(-10k)
65+ (-5k)
This is 2021-2022 data. I would have assume the bleeding has slowed because the pandemic hangover is done.... but hasn't stopped or reversed. But it appears the losses got worse from 2021 to 2022, NOT BETTER. So with housing prices what they are id have to assume its getting worse. But prices are still rising. MA is now officially in a bad place.
That age group “would normally start making up more of the labor market as they grow older,” said Peter Ciurczak, the author of the Boston Indicators report. “But if we lose them, they’re not going to be able to.”
But with the migrants here, you're probably seeing somewhat of a nulling of the 25-44 year old and low-income and people of color loss.
Particularly dire: Working-age adults are leaving in droves. On net, Massachusetts lost an average of 22,631 people age 25 to 44 across 2021 and 2022 — the largest number of any age group and a marked increase over previous years, according to the report.
That age group “would normally start making up more of the labor market as they grow older,” said Peter Ciurczak, the author of the Boston Indicators report. “But if we lose them, they’re not going to be able to.”
Domestic outmigration from 2006-2002
White non latino: -307,186
People of Color: +25,225
Low income: -14,552
Middle Income: -121,561
High Income: -101,851
^ To be fair, this is pretty much how New Jersey, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island, and Connecticut look, too. Not a uniquely MA problem at all.
No college degree: -100,210
Bachelor's Degree or higher: -124,075
18-24: +8,577
25-44: -129,756
45-64: -86,205
65+: -58,249
^Im not sure if those states also look like this.
And there are signs of stabilization: Though Massachusetts saw dramatic levels of net outmigration in 2021 and 2022, the state got back in the black in 2023. Massachusetts experienced a positive net migration of nearly 11,500 residents from July 1, 2022 to July 1, 2023, as international immigration numbers rebounded from pandemic-era lows.
In fact, Massachusetts received more immigrants between 2020 and 2023 than any other state as a percentage of overall population, according to a report released Thursday by the Pioneer Institute think tank. In 2023 about 51,000 net immigrants moved to Massachusetts, compared to the approximately 39,000 net domestic residents that departed the state “for greener pastures,” Pioneer said.
Not building any housing in the subrubs and fighting housing at every turn is directly responsible for this...
The question then becomes: Why are so many working-age people leaving, and how do we stanch the losses?
“It’s always hard to pin any one reason down,” Ciurczak said, “but certainly, housing seems to be a big one.”
Housing costs in Massachusetts, particularly in the Boston region, are among the highest in the country. This is a top-of-mind concern for young people; a recent survey by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Foundation found that among 20- to 30-year-olds in Greater Boston, the cost of rent and the ability to buy a home ranked among the most important factors in determining whether to stay or go.
Even though domestic departures are nothing new, solving them is becoming more and more urgent for the labor market, as the state’s ”silver tsunami,” looms: By 2030, about 21 percent of Massachusetts residents will be 65 or older, up from just under 14 percent in 2010, according to projections by the Donahue Institute.
The haves are blocking people young, productive people from accessing new homes, and the results are predictable.
Not building any housing in the subrubs and fighting housing at every turn is directly responsible for this...
The question then becomes: Why are so many working-age people leaving, and how do we stanch the losses?
“It’s always hard to pin any one reason down,” Ciurczak said, “but certainly, housing seems to be a big one.”
Housing costs in Massachusetts, particularly in the Boston region, are among the highest in the country. This is a top-of-mind concern for young people; a recent survey by the Greater Boston Chamber of Commerce Foundation found that among 20- to 30-year-olds in Greater Boston, the cost of rent and the ability to buy a home ranked among the most important factors in determining whether to stay or go.
Even though domestic departures are nothing new, solving them is becoming more and more urgent for the labor market, as the state’s ”silver tsunami,” looms: By 2030, about 21 percent of Massachusetts residents will be 65 or older, up from just under 14 percent in 2010, according to projections by the Donahue Institute.
The haves are blocking people young, productive people from accessing new homes, and the results are predictable.
By and large I agree with this take - housing affordability is the primary reason by a wide margin, IMO. Used to be that middle and upper-middle class families could just move a bit further out if they needed something they could afford. The issue is that there's almost nowhere further out to move to, from a Greater Boston perspective. I can't really speak to Western MA because I'm not as familiar. A house on the 495 belt seems to cost as much as a house along the 128 belt just a few short years ago. And frankly, if you're from the Boston area or you work in Boston and can only afford a house by moving out past Worcester, you're probably doing yourself a disservice if you don't at least consider other states or parts of the country. Especially if you have remote flexibility.
I love MA. I have family here. But I completely understand why people, especially younger professionals, would get fed up and try elsewhere.
Ahh this topic again. So no building has been done? That's a lie. Building has been done....apparently not as much as you would like though. With how crowded it already is...what would life be like if the amount of building youre talking about actually got done?
I'm not convinced that a massive amount of building would cause the cost of homes to just drop either. The big problem I see with real estate is the trend that has been set in what people are willing to pay. It's mind boggling .We are also at a time where people apparently have the money for these homes from double income high salaries, money from parents, investments etc...then the people who don't have this get left out of the housing market.
I don't think there's any easy solution. Since I've moved into my neighborhood in 2020, 3 new homes have been built...and I dont live in a big neighborhood...I've seen new developments go up in my town and in other towns close by and I'm about 40 min from Boston. The cost of homes isn't going down and most of these new homes I see being built are in the 1.5M-2M range. If you're talking about building big high rise condos for people to live in, there are some of those, but that's not where most people want to live especially when they have a family.
We can argue about this all day...but the amount of housing MA needs to actually make prices go down would be a disgusting amount of housing...and then think about our road ways and transit systems. At some point people need to just know when to leave I guess and stop trying to make the area into something that it isnt
I've also said that companies need to spread out and not just be in greater Boston...MA is a huge state, there's plenty of room to put companies and office spaces. The problem in MA is SPACE.
I love MA. I have family here. But I completely understand why people, especially younger professionals, would get fed up and try elsewhere.
Yea, they're all down here with Me. There are two MA plates literally on my street..right now. like 50 feet from me. And a Rhode Island plate too.
A girl I went to elementary school with lives a 10-minute walk from me and owns her home... She wouldn't be able to in MA.
The middle class actually comes from an upper-class family and is an engineer for Black and Decker. She loves Boston, but she's never considered moving back. All her friends are also Black and Decker employees or Lockheed Martin, and their incomes allow them things they'd never get in Boston.
Another kid from Sebs lives down here about a 6 minute drive from my house... and he is similarly situated and has been able to start a family here- unlike the prior girl, he pretty much hates Boston.
Ahh this topic again. So no building has been done? That's a lie. Building has been done....apparently not as much as you would like though. With how crowded it already is...what would life be like if the amount of building you talking about actually got done?
I'm not convinced that a massive amount of building would cause the cost of homes to just drop either. The big problem I see with real estate is the trend that has been set in what people are willing to pay. It's mind boggling .We are also at a time where people apparently have the money for these homes from double income high salaries, money from parents, investments etc...then the people who don't have this get left out of the housing market.
I don't think there's any easy solution. Since I've moved into my neighborhood in 2020, 3 new homes have been built...and I dont live in a big neighborhood...I've seen new developments go up in my town and in other towns close by and I'm about 40 min from Boston. The cost of homes isn't going down and most of these new homes I see being built are in the 1.5M-2M range. If you're talking about building big high rise condos for people to live in, there are some of those, but that's not where most people want to live especially when they have a family.
We can argue about this all day...but the amount of housing MA needs to actually make prices go down would be a disgusting amount of housing...and then think about our road ways and transit systems. At some point people need to just know when to leave I guess and stop trying to make the area into something that it isnt
I've also said that companies need to spread out and not just be in greater Boston...MA is a huge state, there's plenty of room to put companies and office spaces. The problem in MA is SPACE.
Massachusetts is one of the lowest states per capita for new construction. Like the bottom 10.
Housing there is also considerably more expensive than the more crowded states of RI and New Jersey.
you're just wrong- factually.
3 new homes in 4 years? That's absolutely horrific. And they're 1.5M because you and your neighbors/town don't like apartments, and that's how much it costs to make a profit on a new construction single-family home. They shouldn't even be building those, but the zoning laws dictate they have to. Obviously, not many, if any 35-44 year olds can afford that in your town. So they're imported from China or wherever else in the world.
Your choices are a lower-income, older population, with tons of immigrants (a la Connecticut or Rhode Island).
OR
building A LOT more and retaining higher-income residents and American-born residents (a la Florida or Texas).
Which do you prefer? Make it into something it isn't? I don't know what this means..on the one hand, you're saying it's a dense, crowded area..but on the other hand, our saying...it isn't? Can you make that make sense, please?
I love MA. I have family here. But I completely understand why people, especially younger professionals, would get fed up and try elsewhere.
Well, this is exactly why we're 2023 statistics. We love MA, and we wanted to stay. But we wanted a larger home and some outdoor space, and getting that in MA (in any place we'd consider living) from 2021 onward was cost prohibitive. So we went to Providence where we got all of what we wanted. We were also to get an outstanding return on our East Boston condo which we purchased in mid-2020 when everyone was convinced nobody would want to live in the city anymore. I love MA, but it was really a no-brainer. Even with current interest rates.
I don't see anything changing unless the housing market changes.
Massachusetts is one of the lowest states per capita for new construction. Like the bottom 10.
Housing there is also considerably more expensive than the more crowded states of RI and New Jersey.
you're just wrong- factually.
3 new homes in 4 years? That's absolutely horrific. And they're 1.5M because you and your neighbors/town don't like apartments, and that's how much it costs to make a profit on a new construction single-family home. They shouldn't even be building those, but the zoning laws dictate they have to. Obviously, not many, if any 35-44 year olds can afford that in your town. So they're imported from China or wherever else in the world.
Your choices are a lower-income, older population, with tons of immigrants (a la Connecticut or Rhode Island).
OR
building A LOT more and retaining higher-income residents and American-born residents (a la Florida or Texas).
Which do you prefer? Make it into something it isn't? I don't know what this means..on the one hand, you're saying it's a dense, crowded area..but on the other hand, our saying...it isn't? Can you make that make sense, please?
3 new homes on one small street in 4 years is not horrific, lol.
I don't see anything changing unless the housing market changes.
What's crazy is smart people have been trying to tell people, town leaders, selectmen, senators, and mayors this for Decades. No one, or very few, took it seriously enough. This is the predictable, well-documented outcome.
The scary part is there no plan of action that even comes somewhat sorta kinda close to fixing this. That's a little $ 4 billion bill Healey has that may or may not pass...at some point sometime? Yeh- its irrelevant honestly. Youd need like 5 times that to make a real dent.
This is seriously going to lead to an increase in taxes as we have fewer and fewer workers and more old people and further the spiral of departures. MA is basically where Connecticut was ten years ago. Unless you can get in a bunch of migrants AND immigrants.
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