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No outside power in over a century has been able to successfully occupy Afghanistan. No the British, the Soviet Union or the United States. China? Good luck. Invading that country by the US was a gut level reaction to 911 and Bin Laden.
We didn’t actually try to occupy Afghanistan. For most of the 20 years, we never had but 10k troops floating around the country, mostly in non-fighting roles. We tried to foolishly build infrastructure, while simultaneously foolishly building a government and military so the Afghans could run it on their own someday as a unified country.
What we failed to understand is that they don’t want to unify. They want to fight each other like they’ve done for centuries. I honestly don’t know what our endgame was supposed to be? Because it should’ve been obvious from day one that we were never going to turn Afghanistan into a functioning country.
So now, if we do indeed withdraw, there will be a humanitarian crisis, that’s inevitable. Do we leave hundreds of thousands to be killed, persecuted, jailed, or “re-educated” ? Do we allow all those people into the US as refugees?
Believe it or not, there is a much worse outcome than staying.
There is a complicated history of US relations with Afghan rebels since the 1970s. Back then, the Cold War was still happening and Afghanistan served a proxy of sorts for the conflict. The US backed the rebels against a Russian invasion. It turned out to be like Vietnam for the Soviets - they pulled out after a long drawn out war against guerillas in a forbidden terrain. When that Russian-Afghan War was happening in 1983 I literally recall asking a HS teacher who was winning. I was a naive teen at the time - lol. https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlo...viets-invaded/
The end of the Cold War left a power vacuum in Afghanistan which led to the conflicts today (still unresolved). It seems the CIA and special forces would likely have some type of covert presence. But the small size and limited supply chain will likely limit such covert activities. I think the cold reality is that much of the American public and government leaders just want to leave. Even Trump did. Meanwhile, Afghanistan still appears to be in turmoil. From a public health perspective, there is an opioid crisis in the region.
The Soviets supported the North Koreans, and North Vietnamese. Its like we getting them back. The Soviets also backed the Cubans.
The Chinese will take over. They need to protect their copper mining operation.
The Chinese need to flex some. They cannot be a superpower without proving themselves on the field of battle even if is just a proxy or low intensity conflict.
Quote:
Originally Posted by WK91
We didn’t actually try to occupy Afghanistan. For most of the 20 years, we never had but 10k troops floating around the country, mostly in non-fighting roles. We tried to foolishly build infrastructure, while simultaneously foolishly building a government and military so the Afghans could run it on their own someday as a unified country.
What we failed to understand is that they don’t want to unify. They want to fight each other like they’ve done for centuries. I honestly don’t know what our endgame was supposed to be? Because it should’ve been obvious from day one that we were never going to turn Afghanistan into a functioning country.
So now, if we do indeed withdraw, there will be a humanitarian crisis, that’s inevitable. Do we leave hundreds of thousands to be killed, persecuted, jailed, or “re-educated” ? Do we allow all those people into the US as refugees?
Believe it or not, there is a much worse outcome than staying.
They seemed to be getting along just swell under the Barakzai Dynasty and the Durrani Dynasty before that. They also had colonial/imperialist outsiders to deal with. That may have kept them united.
We didn’t actually try to occupy Afghanistan. For most of the 20 years, we never had but 10k troops floating around the country, mostly in non-fighting roles. We tried to foolishly build infrastructure, while simultaneously foolishly building a government and military so the Afghans could run it on their own someday as a unified country.
What we failed to understand is that they don’t want to unify. They want to fight each other like they’ve done for centuries. I honestly don’t know what our endgame was supposed to be? Because it should’ve been obvious from day one that we were never going to turn Afghanistan into a functioning country.
So now, if we do indeed withdraw, there will be a humanitarian crisis, that’s inevitable. Do we leave hundreds of thousands to be killed, persecuted, jailed, or “re-educated” ? Do we allow all those people into the US as refugees?
Believe it or not, there is a much worse outcome than staying.
I do not care if millions, or even every single person in the entire country, gets killed.
We will never get out of that place. It will drag on like the 100 years War, between France and England back in the 15 th Century. Think the Russians pulled out of there too. Just leave them to their own devices.
No outside power in over a century has been able to successfully occupy Afghanistan. No the British, the Soviet Union or the United States. China? Good luck. Invading that country by the US was a gut level reaction to 911 and Bin Laden.
I would not want to be a Chinese expat there, building roads and mining operations. The Chinese Communist government's treatment of their Muslim minority is well known.
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