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Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths.
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine wants persons entering Ohio from other states, including snowbirds returning from Florida and Arizona, to self-quarantine for 14 days.
The number of shoppers in stores will be limited under the newly extended stay-at-home orders now in effect through May 1. Visiting stores during busy periods may require waiting in a line at the store entrance until another shopper exits the store.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths.
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
After two days with ICU hospitalizations growing at mid-single digits, ICU hospitalizations increased to a 12 percent growth rate over 24 hours. Why? Hopefully, Gov. Mike DeWine and Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton try to figure out such changes, as they wouldn't be expected as we move further away from the inception of social distancing policies. If they have an explanation, it should be shared with Ohioans. Are COVID-19 patients from Michigan or other areas traveling to Ohio for treatment?
DeWine and Acton apparently never discuss ventilator utilization, unlike governors in other states. Is this just another example of the relative lack of transparency practiced by the DeWine administration during this crisis, or is it an attempt not to publicize the available capacity in Ohio, especially as airlines still are open and the hard-hit Detroit area is just a one to just a few hours drive to many Ohio hospitals?
Where are these increases in ICU hospitalizations taking place? Is it possible that the DeWine administration by not banning religious gatherings has allowed COVID-19 hot spots traceable to religious gatherings to develop in Ohio, as they have in other states???
Apparently, Ohio reports hospitalizations and deaths by county, but not ICU admissions. I'm not certain what Ohio report cleveland.com utilizes to produce the county information reported in this article, and I haven't spent much time trying to find the referenced report.
In other developments, Ohio now is trying to thin its prison population, and will allow alcohol takeout orders with takeout restaurant meals. Acton also says that the COVID-19 epidemic will PEAK in Ohio in late April or early May. So things will get worse for Buckeyes for the next 3-4 weeks. Acton said new cases will be 2,000 to 10,000; it's not clear from the following article if this is a cumulative total, or a daily total.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths.
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
Gov. Mike DeWine contemplates slashing the state budget for schools, parks, local governments, mass transit, etc., while not yet giving any consideration to reversing any of the massive tax cuts and loopholes created by the Republicans.
<<To control state spending at a time when revenues are down and costs associated with containing it are up, DeWine had previously announced he asked his agencies to slash about 20% from their budgets....
Each department submitted their budget plans Tuesday night or Wednesday morning, DeWine said.
He said that he will start to weigh in on the plans.
“As you can well imagine, the options are not good,” he said.>>
<<Since 2005, Republicans have led a legislative charge to slash state income taxes by more than a third. Along the way, they’ve eliminated taxes on corporate profits and inheritances.
And, under former Gov. John Kasich, the GOP-controlled legislature allowed owners of limited-liability companies, S corporations and other pass-through entities to pay no income tax on their first $250,000 of income.>>
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths.
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
Great day. For each of the three metrics, these are the lowest growth rates in the last two weeks, since the epidemic really began to ramp up in Ohio. This is the first time that the growth rate for hospitalizations has fallen into single digits during this period.
It has been one month since the first COVID-19 cases were confirmed in Ohio. While social distancing policies have greatly flattened this epidemic in Ohio, protestors appeared at the Ohio Capitol today demanding the end of the policies and the removal of Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton.
<<Shortly before [Gov. Mike] DeWine’s daily briefing, a group of roughly 70 protesters rallied against coronavirus-related restrictions on Ohio Capitol Square, most in a socially distant manner, as Ohio Highway Patrol officers looked on.
They continued into the press conference, and could be heard over state officials’ presentations. They chanted “O-H-I-O! Acton’s got to go," and “Open Ohio now!”>>
It would be interesting to know who these persons were and how they were organized.
The protestors apparently were facile liars, not uncommon in our society today at even the highest levels of our government. So 70 protestors suddenly showed up together by coincidence???
<<The protesters didn’t identify themselves. They said they were not with an organized group. One group of people, who were not socially distancing and were carrying a cross, appeared to be associated with a religious group.>>
Ironically, DeWine announced today that Ohio's social distancing policies have worked much better than initially projected.
<<The latest projections from a model developed by the Ohio State University’s Infectious Disease Institute say the state could see roughly 1,600 new COVID-19 cases per day at the peak of the outbreak later this month. The outlook represents a dramatic improvement over previous models that suggested the state could see a peak near 10,000 new cases per day, even with social-distancing measures like Ohio’s stay-at-home order.
DeWine credited Ohio residents for the improved outlook, saying they’ve reduced person-to-person contact more than modelers predicted. He said it’s difficult for modelers to anticipate human behavior.
“Quite candidly, the modelers didn’t think we were going to do as good a job as we did," DeWine said during Thursday’s daily coronavirus briefing.
The state’s latest outlook is closer to models developed by MetroHealth and the University of Washington’s Center for Health Metrics and Evaluation. MetroHealth President and CEO Akram Boutros and IHME Director Christopher Murray have each said social distancing measures led to the improved projections, with Boutros estimating Ohio residents have reduced person-to-person contact by as much as 95 percent.>>
The chart in the following story shows how much Ohio's social distancing policies have flattened the COVID-19 case curve. Candidly, the "unmitigated" case projections in the chart make little sense as Ohio didn't begin implementing social distancing policies until mid-March; perhaps the protestors have a legitimate point.
Acton warned against easing social distancing policies too soon.
<<It’s unclear how the latest projections will affect social-distancing measures going forward. The current stay-at-home order will expire May 1. Acton cautioned that if Ohio relaxes social-distancing measures too soon, the state could undo all of its efforts to “flatten the curve” and prevent the coronavirus crisis from overwhelming hospitals.
“Every single modeler, everyone who talks about it, is saying that we must keep doing what we’re doing,” Acton said. “You’re succeeding. But the second you ease back, we’ll see ourselves in an outbreak that will really overwhelm our healthcare system.”
Without any social-distancing measures, Ohio could have seen a peak of roughly 62,000 new cases per day last month, according to the state’s projections.>>
The University of Washington IHME model estimates WITH CURRENT SOCIAL DISTANCING POLICIES INTACT THROUGH MAY, Ohio will run no risk of overwhelming its hospital resources, and total deaths by Aug. 4 in Ohio will total less than 500.
I haven't tracked total confirmed cases of COVID-19 because limited testing causes the counts to be understated, and I'm not certain how Ohio handles COVID-19 cases when persons have recovered and no longer are infectious. However, hopefully by now, all persons with severe symptoms are receiving tests even if contact tracing and testing of all contacts still is very deficient. So the decline in new confirmed cases is significant, as recorded in the following Cleveland.com article. I assume that confirmed cases are cumulative and are not reduced by recoveries, as we don't yet have any means to confirm recovered individuals.
Note that the growth rate for new cases have been in single digits for the last four days. Confirmed cases on 4/9 of 5,512 increased from 5,418, or an increase of 364 new cases, according to the above article. The growth rate based on total cases was therefore 7% (364/5418).
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths. HOSPITALIZATIONS MAY BE THE KEY METRIC TO WATCH WHEN GAUGING EFFORTS TO CONTROL THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC.
<<Ignore the skyrocketing case count, or at least take it with a grain of salt. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has explained, the number of positive tests reported in any given city, state or country is highly dependent on the number of tests conducted there — which differs wildly from place to place over time. Death tolls are more useful for comparing how the epidemic is evolving in different locales. But because it typically takes weeks for someone with COVID-19 to die, they’re also lagging indicators that tell you less about where on its epidemic trajectory the virus is now than where it was back then.
The number you really want to focus on is hospitalizations.>>
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
For the first time, the daily increase in cumulative COVID-19 deaths in Ohio fell to single digits, despite a change in how Ohio classifies COVID-19 deaths. Ohio now is including "probable" COVID-19 deaths based on symptoms or an antibody test even when there was no positive COVID-19 test due to testing shortages. The expanded definition added 4 probable COVID-19 deaths to Ohio's confirmed COVID-19 deaths of 227, for a total of 231. Without the addition of these four probable deaths, the cumulative death total would have increased only 7 percent on 4/10.
<<The state also changed the way it reports coronavirus data Friday.
The state health department is now including a count of probable cases and deaths in its overall total according to an expanded definition of COVID-19 from the Centers For Disease Control and Prevention.
The change adds 42 “probable” cases, which would bring the overall statewide total to 5,878. That expanded consideration means there are an additional four deaths on top of 227 confirmed that can likely be attributed to the coronavirus, according to the state.>>
Ohio Department of Health Director Dr. Amy Acton today said that social distancing policies in Ohio had reduced the spread rate of the COVID-19 virus from 2.3 to 1.21, greatly reducing community spread. Here are some explanations.
Here are some additional changes announced today, including allowing food trucks to operate at Ohio freeway rest stops, and changes to Medicaid pharmacy rules.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths. HOSPITALIZATIONS MAY BE THE KEY METRIC TO WATCH WHEN GAUGING EFFORTS TO CONTROL THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC.
<<Ignore the skyrocketing case count, or at least take it with a grain of salt. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has explained, the number of positive tests reported in any given city, state or country is highly dependent on the number of tests conducted there — which differs wildly from place to place over time. Death tolls are more useful for comparing how the epidemic is evolving in different locales. But because it typically takes weeks for someone with COVID-19 to die, they’re also lagging indicators that tell you less about where on its epidemic trajectory the virus is now than where it was back then.
The number you really want to focus on is hospitalizations.>>
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
Later in the article is a table showing cases per 100,000 population, listed alphabetically.
The statewide average is 53.5.
Here is the same information, but ranked highest to lowest (updated as of 4/11) for the 25 of Ohio's 88 counties with highest CONFIRMED case count per 100,000 population. The counties rank in population is in parentheses for the 10 most populous counties. Major cities in selected counties are listed. The "3C" counties are italicized and boldfaced. The 10 most populous counties are boldfaced. Population statistics used were from the following website.
Among Ohio counties ranked among the top 10 in population, Stark County (8), where Canton is located, with only 35.9 cases per 100,000 residens didn't make the top 25 confirmed case list, nor did Montgomery County (5), where Dayton is located, with 32.9 cases per 100,000 residents, nor did Butler County (7), where Hamilton is the county seat and most populous city, with 30.0 cases per 100,000 residents.
Many Ohio counties with high rates of confirmed COVID-19 cases are NOT densely populated.
Among the other counties (with cases per 100,000 rank in parentheses) with the highest confirmed cases per 100,000 residents, Miami County (3) is the 25th most populous with 105,000 residents, Columbiana County (4) is the 26th most populous county with 104,000 residents, Pickaway County (6) is the 47th most populous with 57,000 residents, Portage (7) is the 19th most populous with 163,000 residents, Darke County (8) is the 49th most populous with 52,000 residents, Trumbull County (Warren) (9) is the 14th most populous with 202,000 residents, Union County is the 46th most populous (10) with 56,000 residents, and Belmont County (11) is 36th in population with 68,000 residents.
Unfortunately, Ohio provides no analysis attempting to explain the significant difference in cases per county, even though such analysis is critical to any effort to exit stay-at-home orders.
Here are the daily reports of hospitalizations (rate of change from prior day) and deaths (rate of change from prior day, or from the prior recorded report if one or more daily reports are missed) from the Ohio Dept. of Health. Anybody feel free to update this chart in the event that I am unable to or forget to do so. Until the rate of change begins to decrease over many days if not weeks, this epidemic won't have begun to peak in Ohio.
Beginning 3/25/20, Ohio added ICU (intensive care unit) hospitalizations to its daily COVID-19 report. Ohio's report is not very good and does not explain the statistics. E.g., I'm assuming that these are cumulative death statistics, but that hospitalizations reflect current hospitalized COVID-19 patients and ICU patients and not just new daily patients; if so, the hospitalization and ICU statistics are net of discharges, reported by some states which report cumulative hospitalizations and discharges as well as current hospitalized patients.
So for each day, hospitalized patients are listed first, then ICU patients (beginning 3/25 when Ohio first began reporting this statistic), then cumulative deaths. HOSPITALIZATIONS MAY BE THE KEY METRIC TO WATCH WHEN GAUGING EFFORTS TO CONTROL THE COVID-19 EPIDEMIC.
<<Ignore the skyrocketing case count, or at least take it with a grain of salt. As FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver has explained, the number of positive tests reported in any given city, state or country is highly dependent on the number of tests conducted there — which differs wildly from place to place over time. Death tolls are more useful for comparing how the epidemic is evolving in different locales. But because it typically takes weeks for someone with COVID-19 to die, they’re also lagging indicators that tell you less about where on its epidemic trajectory the virus is now than where it was back then.
The number you really want to focus on is hospitalizations.>>
To keep posts in this thread from becoming too long, five-day reports will replace daily statistics using compounded rates of change (calculated using a business calculator). Daily statistics will remain available in earlier threads. Five-day compounded rates of change are marked by an asterisk. The 5-day death growth rate from 3/20 to 3/25 likely was distorted by having only 1 death as the starting point.
Another "best day yet." Hospitalizations posted the lowest growth since the inception of this thread, as did cumulative deaths, which were almost unchanged.
There was no briefing by the DeWine administration.[/quote]
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