Ohio after the COVID-19 epidemic

[WRnative]

The Ohio Restaurant Association reports that already 3 percent of Ohio restaurants are closed permanently and 11 percent do not expect to reopen.


<<The sharp downtick in business has led 3 percent of Ohio restaurants (about 690 businesses) to already closed permanently, Barker said, and an additional 11 percent (about 2,350 restaurants) expect that they will not reopen.>>


https://www.cleveland.com/coronaviru...us-crisis.html


Fine dining restaurants likely especially face an existential threat. Not only have current sales collapsed, but wealth destruction likely will reduce expenditures for more expensive meals even after restaurants are allowed to reopen. Additionally, new social distance rules may require social distancing within the restaurants, reducing seating capacity. More elderly and vulnerable persons may avoid restaurants entirely until a vaccine is developed or until herd immunity reaches such a substantial level that transmission rates become negligible. Patio dining may become more popular due to the anti-viral effect of UV sunlight, but many fine dining restaurants have limited patio capacity.


<<Compared to the same time last year, business is down 90 percent for fine-dining establishments, 75 percent for casual dining, 45 percent for fast-casual places like Chipotle, and 35 percent for fast-food restaurants, according to Barker....


It’s still unclear when restaurants will be allowed to reopen in Ohio. But even when that day comes, Barker said, many restaurant owners are predicting sales will be only 40-50 percent of what they were pre-pandemic. “If any of you have operated a small business, you cannot make any money in running 40 to 50 percent,” he said.


When restaurants reopen, they’ll also have to retrain new staff who replace laid-off workers, Barker continued. Owners will also have to spend a lot of money and time to restock their food supplies, as many establishments emptied their freezers not knowing when they'd come back.>>


The Ohio Hotel and Lodging Association also reports a massive impact in the lodging industry.


<<

Ohio hotels are allowed to remain open under the state’s coronavirus orders. But their occupancy rate right now is 20 percent and falling – and that doesn’t count the hotels that have shut their doors, said Joe Savarise, executive director of the Ohio Hotel and Lodging Association.


About 70 percent of hotel employees in Ohio have already been laid off – about 29,700 workers, Savarise said. Another 86,500 jobs supported by the hotel industry, such as landscapers, have also lost their jobs since the coronavirus pandemic arose, he said.>>

[ferraris]

What I'm wondering is if Ohio's relatively good virus numbers will translate to any meaningful economic difference in the return to normalcy. My gut feeling is that it won't be a big difference -- the national economy is too interwoven for Ohio to escape national trends.

[WRnative]

Originally Posted by ferraris

What I'm wondering is if Ohio's relatively good virus numbers will translate to any meaningful economic difference in the return to normalcy. My gut feeling is that it won't be a big difference -- the national economy is too interwoven for Ohio to escape national trends.

What might make a big difference is Ohio State's efforts to provide testing supplies -- nasal swabs, test kit transport media, and, now, reagent -- which may enable Ohio to test at much higher rates than most states.

If DeWine complements this new testing capacity with robust contact tracing and confinement policies, Ohio may be able to reopen its economy without much of a spike in infections, hospitalizations and deaths, at least according to the experts.

[ZnGuy]

Study shows that some cities in Midwest, including Columbus and Cleveland will feel immediate fiscal impact due to their reliance on income and/or sales tax as a big part of their budget.
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-a...e=morning_brew