In 2022, Zillow Predicts That Phoenix housing market will climb ANOTHER 20%?! (Mesa: transplants, for sale)

[MN-Born-n-Raised]

Originally Posted by Woody01

The earth's warming/cooling trends come and go over the centuries. No big deal, you can relax now....

Exactly! I mean, the last time the Arctic ice retreated was 11,000 years ago. Count the zeros.. That's 110 centuries. No big deal. It is pure coincidence that the ice was stable for 11,000 years and all of a sudden it started to melt for the past three measly decades. Completely by chance, there has been a build-up of CO2 because it is a natural 11,000 year cycle. Now, it's starting to speed up too with more CO2. Again, I call B.S. I mean, what could go wrong? I'm with you RELAX! Anyways, why should I care about future generations after I'm dead?!

[locolife]

Originally Posted by Woody01

The earth's warming/cooling trends come and go over the centuries. No big deal, you can relax now....

I'm not a climate change alarmist but I do love science. The idea that what we're experiencing now is natural climate change doesn't hold water and it's already a big deal, hopefully we can avoid it being a giant deal, but it's already a big one.

The historical trends you're using to casually justify this as nothing to worry about are directly correlated to natural events, such as volcanic activity. The speed, global uniformity and lack of causation due to any natural events make this warming trend unlike anything else in the last 2,000 years. Put another way, why wouldn't dumping millions of tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere be a cause for warming?

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...t-2-000-years/

[locolife]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

Exactly! I mean, the last time the Arctic ice retreated was 11,000 years ago. No big deal. It is pure coincidence that the ice was stable for 11,000 years and all of a sudden it started to melt for the past three measly decades. Completely by chance, there has been a build-up of CO2. Now, it's starting to speed up too. I mean, what could go wrong? RELAX! Why should I care about future generations anyways?!

Well said...

[locolife]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

If water doubles or triples, people will cut back on their consumption. Frankly, it would be pretty easy to cut back by 50%. I'll stop taking those 20-minute hot showers and remove the water-guzzling plants. If AZ recycled our water, the state could use far less water consumption. In other words, there are multiple ways that we could conserve. But until our backs are against the wall and we feel a lot more pain, nothing will change. A lot of words to say that I'm not worried. There will be fewer pools built, more leaks fixed, less grass, etc. IMO, it is no big deal until it becomes a bigger deal. Analogy: gas prices. Simply triple the price and you will see a fraction of the usage. Just the market forces at work.

Yes, there is a ton of water reduction that could still occur and the biggest reality is that AZ will have less agriculture in the future. Something like 60% of Arizona's water usage is still for agriculture and the portion of the remaining with the other 40% split between municipal and industry use, of the municipal use the vast majority is for outdoor landscaping. There are plenty of options to save but the government isn't sitting back and doing nothing either.

The arid west has always been water oriented and no signs that will ever change. In what now seems to be a fairly lucky geographic location, Phoenix is only 200 miles from the Sea of Cortez, whether desalinization occurs there to offset more water pulled from the Colorado River or it's pumped to Phoenix (similar to CAP) there are options and the state isn't waiting until it's too late to figure it out.


https://www.abc15.com/news/state/gov...ater-authority

[PhoenixSomeday]

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

...
Here is an article from PHX's very own John Wake that describes what I mentioned in greater detail. He nails the reasons why RE has increased so fast. This well-written article is worth the read.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnwake/?sh=6265ef7d4f4b

It seems to be playing down the remote work effect. I think it's a much bigger piece of the equation than just "there's a lot of tech available now to make buying faster". Yes, there is, but there are AAAAA LOOOOOOT of people moving away from high COL areas to low COL areas now that they can work from home permanently. I've been saying since I was finishing up college in the mid 2000s that this was the ideal situation. COVID just made it a hell of a lot easier. Some jobs were WFH during 2020 and part of 2021, and people had to go back, but a lot of jobs are now permanently WFH. I think it's a bigger slice of the pie than he's indicating. But, yes, I know the real-estate-information technology bit is important too. Kind of like how it became for car buying 15 - 20 years ago.

How the hell are "the little people" like most of the rest of us supposed to compete with people who have too much money - be it "investors" or couples that both have $150k jobs. "Down payment assistance programs" don't help against the people wiping their butts with $100 bills. We're probably relegated to the houses people just don't want (I know - buy small, build equity, work upward). I mean, obviously sellers are going to go for the over-asking all-cash buyers, from what I understand.

[DetroitN8V]

Originally Posted by Woody01

The earth's warming/cooling trends come and go over the centuries. No big deal, you can relax now....

Oh wow, a man-made climate change denier. How original. Very on-brand though.

[Valley Native]

Originally Posted by hikernut

Permanent work from home will result in more people moving here from expensive cities. Buy a much bigger house at the same price, pay less in property taxes, pay less in state income taxes...

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Jose/1...2/home/1086317
https://www.redfin.com/AZ/Chandler/3.../home/28185342

Plenty of these people can pay cash, and even if they can't swing a cash purchase they are bringing enough salary that $1m is no problem. This is true even if mortgages go to 5% or 6%. In the case of a two-earner family you can double that.

Phoenix has become one of the more expensive cities. Relatively speaking, it's still more reasonably priced than the west coast, but the Phoenix area now averages higher home prices than many other large metros, including Chicago & Philadelphia. Moving here because it's cheap no longer holds merit.

As for permanent work from home: it certainly has its benefits, but many employers are wanting a large share of their employees who work remotely to come back to the office. Some of the reasons are listed in the link below, but one key point that isn't mentioned is: corporate real estate. Many companies have invested large sums of $$$$ into new office space in the last few years (prior to the pandemic). What sense does it make to have these nice office complexes sit practically empty? Plus, a lot of eateries in the vicinity of office buildings are dependent on lunchtime workers. I won't even get into all the technical glitches we've experienced with employees working remotely!

https://hrdailyadvisor.blr.com/2021/...-in-real-life/

Originally Posted by MN-Born-n-Raised

$200K salary feels like what $50K did in the early 2000s.

Not quite. One of the concerns that many people have expressed on this forum and elsewhere is the overall wages aren't keeping up with rent & home prices. According to the link below, Phoenix ranks 18th on the list of cities in terms of average salary ... however, our average home prices are higher than many of the cities which rank above us in wages. While I'm often the first one to say "quit your bitchin'" to the ones who are priced out of the market, I can certainly understand the sentiment when it comes to wages vs. real estate.

https://www.careerbuilder.com/advice...salary-by-city

[49erfan916]

Only 20 percent? Try double that!

[PhoenixSomeday]

Yeah and it's been like that for decades. People have twice the salary their parents did in the 70s or whatever, but houses cost literally more than 10x as much. I rented a room in a house from 2009 to 2014 in Silicon Valley where the guy bought it in 1979 for $74k. It's worth over $2 million now. Wages have certainly not gone up 27x. Granted that's a dramatic difference, but the idea is still the same. Wages have not kept pace AT ALL. But, "oh well" and "supply and demand" and yadda yadda. Ok, fine, but if it keeps up, history says that's not going to end well, socially / politically / economically.

[dontbelievehim]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-aE53IYYfLs


This guy is predicting lower demand in phoenix.
Some parts of CA will be doing better than Phoenix if he's right.