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Current models are showing promise for a potential tornado outbreak across the high plains (extreme Western OK, Eastern CO, Western Kansas, Nebraska. Thursday through Saturday are listed as severe which means
"A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates a 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point. "
I wouldn't doubt it one bit, the unusual amplification of the jet for this time of year has caused more numerous and stronger severe weather outbreaks than we are used to. Unfortunately, the setup hasn't changed all that much and we'll have to contend with more outbreaks until at least the beginning of summer when the jet hopefully flattens out a bit.
It's not looking particulary too good. The Storm Prediction Centre have issued a moderate risk of severe storms with a 15% chance of tornados (some large and long track) in Western KS. Tomorrow shall be an interesting day!
One of the things that surprises me is the fact of how far west the storms are supposed to be. In my own state, the eastern side has many more tornadoes then the western side because they have a semi-arid climate and we have humidity. But according to the map, the storms will be over 100 miles west of my house.
The Storm Prediction Centre has just upped the tornado outlook to 30% for West Kansas.
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1143 AM CDT THU MAY 22 2008
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
NORTHEAST COLORADO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA
FAR NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN
OKLAHOMA/THE FAR EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
Tornadoes touched down this afternoon along the Front Range of Colorado killing at least one person and causing widespread damage north of Denver.
According to Severe Weather Expert Henry Margusity, the conditions in place will spark dangerous long-track tornadoes. "It's a classic setup for supercell storms including large tornadoes," Margusity said. "This is the type of setup that can produce tornadoes a mile wide."
One tornado even touched down in Laramie Wyoming tearing up some stuff. Not often you see tornado's at 7,200 ft in elevation.
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Oh my!!!! Hopefully their long range prediction is wrong. There have already been more tornadoes then average for this time of year.
The destruction is awful, but the loss of life is always the saddest.
