Where is the political climate of VA headed? (Virginia Beach, Norfolk: real estate, how much)

[Chrisgator]

I realize that nobody can predict the future, but I'm curious as to the opinions of Virginians regarding what is ahead in terms of politics: will there be a backlash of sorts against the Dems due to the gun control controversy, among other issues? Will the Republican Party continue gaining popularity? Is it not worth discussing because NoVa will continue to dominate the state? Interested to hear your thoughts.

[manitopiaaa]

The blue trend will continue.

The vast majority of growth in the state is in areas that are heavily Democratic.

From 2010-2018, Virginia gained 516,000 people.

305,000 of them moved to blue counties in Northern Virginia. 47,000 moved to Richmond/Henrico, 15,000 moved to Charlottesville/Albemarle.

367,000 out of 516,000 is 71%.

So 71% of the state's growth is in blue bastions.

77,000 of the state's growth is in swing counties trending Democratic: Virginia Beach, Chesapeake, Chesterfield, Spotsylvania. That's another 15%.

Only 10% Net of the state's growth is in Republican areas. A lot of the Republican areas like Appalachia are in serious population decline.

What people here don't understand is that a majority of Virginians live in 12 counties/cities:

Northern Virginia
Alexandria (78% Northam, 81% Kaine)
Arlington County (80% Northam, 82% Kaine)
Fairfax County (68% Northam, 71% Kaine)
Loudoun County (59% Northam, 63% Kaine)
Prince William County (61% Northam, 65% Kaine)

Hampton Roads
Chesapeake (53% Northam, 55% Kaine)
Newport News (65% Northam, 68% Kaine)
Norfolk (74% Northam, 75% Kaine)
Virginia Beach (52% Northam, 54% Kaine)

Richmond Area
Chesterfield County (50% Northam, 54% Kaine)
Henrico County (61% Northam, 65% Kaine)
Richmond (82% Northam, 85% Kaine)

All of those counties have been moving left since 2008. It will be VERY difficult for Republicans to regain power without addressing their urban problem. They're toxic in counties where a majority of Virginians live.

Hillary won 9 of the 12 in 2016, Northam swept all 12 in 2017 and Kaine won all 12 in 2018 by double digits (including traditionally GOP Chesapeake, Chesterfield and Virginia Beach).

And all of the Dem gains in the State House/Senate in 2019 came from Nova/Richmond/Hampton Roads.

The rurals can no longer outvote the cities. Either the GOP addresses their racism, sexism, xenophobia, homophobia, gun nut quackery, and White nationalism problem or they go the way of Maryland Republicans in 10 years.

George W. Bush won Fairfax County by 6,000 votes in 2000. In 2016, Hillary was winning it by 200,000 votes. Change happens quickly and, in 10 years, once Loudoun and Prince William are voting 75% Democratic, that's when things will really get ugly for the GOP.

[NJBoy3]

Tax increases are my concern. Trying to escape high taxes by leaving NJ. I no longer consider VA an option to accomplish this.

[finalmove]

We've seen the Leftist virus creep for some time. And after long successful careers, we're leaving the Old Dominion, taking our pot of gold and heading South.

We're currently building our retirement home in Slidell, Louisiana (next to Mississippi) where there is zero chance of having local politics overrun by Democrats in my remaining years.
It's called Sportsman's Paradise for a reason!

Buh-bye!

[spencer114]

There is no gun control backlash.
The Dems ran on gun control and won, just two and 1/2 months ago. The election last November IS the political climate in Virginia. The Virginians that attended the rally already voted and they were outnumbered.

My prediction is that once the GA session is over, everyone forgets about it and gets on with their lives. The D’s are passing very popular legislation (including these popular gun control measures).

To the retiring person....good luck in LA. Thanks for leaving Virginia right when your medical costs will become a burden. You aren’t punishing Virginia for having spent your productive years here contributing to the tax base then moving when you become nonproductive. You’re actually helping

[tgbwc]

Originally Posted by Chrisgator

I realize that nobody can predict the future, but I'm curious as to the opinions of Virginians regarding what is ahead in terms of politics: will there be a backlash of sorts against the Dems due to the gun control controversy, among other issues? Will the Republican Party continue gaining popularity? Is it not worth discussing because NoVa will continue to dominate the state? Interested to hear your thoughts.

“Continue gaining”? Do you have numbers that show this is currently happening? I’m not arguing, just wondering.

[VA Yankee]

Originally Posted by spencer114

There is no gun control backlash.
The Dems ran on gun control and won, just two and 1/2 months ago. The election last November IS the political climate in Virginia. The Virginians that attended the rally already voted and they were outnumbered.

That pretty much sums it up, I recall seeing the Attorney General in a TV interview saying about the same thing. He was responding to a question about the gun supporters who implied that this was not the will of the citizens , he said "We are doing what the people who elected us want" or words to that effect. That pretty much sums it up.

Watching the rest of the GA session it seems most of the egregious measures put in place during the Republican majorities with regards to woman's health issues/choices are on the chopping block to be repealed.

For those who choose to leave because its not going your way, best of luck in your new homes..

[Rickcin]

Originally Posted by NJBoy3

Tax increases are my concern. Trying to escape high taxes by leaving NJ. I no longer consider VA an option to accomplish this.

What is your criteria?

We were paying $13K in real estate taxes in NJ/NY for a 1800 sf house built in the 60’s, moved to Virginia to a bigger 9 year old house and now pay less than $3K for the house with 2 cars that are included in that amount.

How much better can you do to escape high taxes?

[Rickcin]

Originally Posted by Chrisgator

I realize that nobody can predict the future, but I'm curious as to the opinions of Virginians regarding what is ahead in terms of politics: will there be a backlash of sorts against the Dems due to the gun control controversy, among other issues? Will the Republican Party continue gaining popularity? Is it not worth discussing because NoVa will continue to dominate the state? Interested to hear your thoughts.

The constant trend has been that the middle class is shrinking and the new generation and people who are entering this country are looking for a free ride and the momentum is toward socialistic views and policies.

This Country as we once knew it will never be the same and will probably lead to our demise. It’s happening in various degrees in every state and the knowledge gained from history has been forgotten and or being torn down and removed. The Democratic Party (now socialists ) have been gaining in numbers over the years, for a bunch of reasons and continue to do so. It’s not a rosy future IMO and we’re headed down a very self destructive path.

[VA Yankee]

Originally Posted by Rickcin

The constant trend has been that the middle class is shrinking and the new generation and people who are entering this country are looking for a free ride and the momentum is toward socialistic views and policies.

This Country as we once knew it will never be the same and will probably lead to our demise. It’s happening in various degrees in every state and the knowledge gained from history has been forgotten and or being torn down and removed. The Democratic Party (now socialists ) have been gaining in numbers over the years, for a bunch of reasons and continue to do so. It’s not a rosy future IMO and we’re headed down a very self destructive path.

Is it knowledge gained from history or just clinging to the forgotten past? Not everything is worth saving or continuing and this country like life continues to evolve and change. Maybe the pendulum has gone too far in one direction but it will swing back the other way as we work towards a balance .

The biggest destructive path is the fact that the extremes of both parties have become their mouthpiece and they aren't representing the core of their members. Democrats are no more "socialists" as you put it any more than Republicans are Fascists, you can be a liberal Republican or be a conservative Democrat it is allowed. Politics used to be the art of compromise not my way or the highway over every issue where its all or nothing and the looser takes their football and goes home.