Boise's Prosperity is Fleeting (Star: transplants, real estate, house)

[diceyhot]

This report comes from the Brookings Institute just a few months ago. It's purely analytical. It's interesting to read a report that seems to confirm certain popular suspicions. We just need to be careful not to be complacent. I think the hype has given some people a false sense of security. Des Moines is probably becoming the new Boise, but with more money and opportunity. That's one city I've been watching to see how their growth plays out. We have better weather though

‘City at a crossroads:’ Brookings says Boise’s prosperity is fleeting, bold action needed

https://boisedev.com/news/2019/05/21...growth-change/

But the Brookings analysts note there are big challenges ahead that could constrain that growth. It also points out the average Boisean is worse off now than they were in 2007.

“Today Boise no longer possesses the same critical mass of high-tech companies,” the report says, harkening back to the HP/Simplot/Micron flywheel. “The synergies that drove Boise’s growth over the past 40 years are no longer sufficient for the region’s economy to compete globally.”

Aggregate earnings in the Treasure Valley dropped 6.3% since 2007. What’s worse, a higher percentage of residents are in poverty today than they were in 2007 before the economic recession. Today, 12 percent live in poverty versus 10.3 percent in 2007.

The report uses a complex analytical model to look at the future based on current factors and trendlines. The news for Boise isn’t strong: “Our industry network mapping predicts… disinvestment from Boise.”

It says Boise has a “limited capability to support advanced, technically sophisticated industries” like computer manufacturing (HP) or semiconductor manufacturing (Micron).

Boise is growing – but it is coming in industries that don’t penetrate beyond the area’s borders. Instead of high-tech computer chips, potato products or even supermarkets – the jobs are coming in healthcare, hospitality, and government. These sectors only serve the population – they don’t export anything.

“These… service sectors… do not themselves drive growth.”

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content...INALforWeb.pdf

[MikesChevelle]

Thats right, everyone MOVE AWAY.

I need to buy a house for a reasonable price lol

[riffle]

Originally Posted by diceyhot

Des Moines is probably becoming the new Boise, but with more money and opportunity.

In what sense is Des Moines becoming "the new Boise", exactly?

[diceyhot]

Originally Posted by riffle

In what sense is Des Moines becoming "the new Boise", exactly?

Des Moines transformed from its perceived lame to cool and became a trendy destination for transplants, especially young professionals. They're at the heart of the Silicon Prairie and real estate is still affordable. Lincoln and Omaha can probably be added to the list as well. Boise used to claim these attributes. Well, I don't know if young professionals were flocking to Boise. I think it would be too expensive now.

But this isn't an endorsement of Des Moines. It's too flat for my taste

Silicon Prairie, anyone? These unexpected regions are emerging as America's brightest — not to mention affordable and inclusive — tech hubs.
Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

How America’s Dullest City Got Cool
https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ot-cool-213552

[zedd]

Living here it seems like the dominant trend is the area becoming a retirement community for California conservatives. On top of that, locals get an aggressively increasing cost of living. Certainly not a path to future economic prosperity.

It will take some visionary leadership to steer the city and state in another direction. Other states have some economic reference models but ultimately Boise is competing with other cities in the west for economic power. How can it distinguish itself?

[nowhereman427]

Originally Posted by diceyhot

Des Moines transformed from its perceived lame to cool and became a trendy destination for transplants, especially young professionals. They're at the heart of the Silicon Prairie and real estate is still affordable. Lincoln and Omaha can probably be added to the list as well. Boise used to claim these attributes. Well, I don't know if young professionals were flocking to Boise. I think it would be too expensive now.

But this isn't an endorsement of Des Moines. It's too flat for my taste

Silicon Prairie, anyone? These unexpected regions are emerging as America's brightest — not to mention affordable and inclusive — tech hubs.
Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

How America’s Dullest City Got Cool
https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ot-cool-213552

Des Moines Iowa??
Tornado Alley.

[riffle]

Originally Posted by diceyhot

Des Moines transformed from its perceived lame to cool and became a trendy destination for transplants, especially young professionals. They're at the heart of the Silicon Prairie and real estate is still affordable. Lincoln and Omaha can probably be added to the list as well. Boise used to claim these attributes. Well, I don't know if young professionals were flocking to Boise. I think it would be too expensive now.

But this isn't an endorsement of Des Moines. It's too flat for my taste

Silicon Prairie, anyone? These unexpected regions are emerging as America's brightest — not to mention affordable and inclusive — tech hubs.
Moderator cut: link removed, competitor site

How America’s Dullest City Got Cool
https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...ot-cool-213552

I know both places, and disagree. There is a well-documented shift in the age 20-30 population in Iowa (and other states) from rural to urban areas, and Des Moines is a recipient of that. Compared to Boise, which is a lifestyle destination with transplants from out of state and in older age groups, including retirees. See the attached graphs - very similar shape across the decades (I looked at the 80s, too) just different magnitude.

The article in the OP calls out service sectors as not themselves driving growth, but fails to explain why these sectors have grown in the first place. The money is coming from somewhere..

https://netmigration.wisc.edu/

[mustangjoey]

Quote:
But the Brookings analysts note there are big challenges ahead that could constrain that growth. It also points out the average Boisean is worse off now than they were in 2007.

“Today Boise no longer possesses the same critical mass of high-tech companies,” the report says, harkening back to the HP/Simplot/Micron flywheel. “The synergies that drove Boise’s growth over the past 40 years are no longer sufficient for the region’s economy to compete globally.”
Quote:

Regarding that quote, I'm an IT guy, and you are never in a good position if you have a few, large players in anything. When those start to fade, it hurts. It's like the small town with the factory. Once it goes out of business, the whole town dies.

Boise is turning in to a high tech hub. Not in the sense where there are a few huge players, but TONS of smaller, high tech companies. Search the want ads sometime for IT jobs: system administrators, security, project management, DevOps, etc. Jobs are everywhere.

I wouldn't say that job market or economy is dying, however it's never good when the cost of a home rises faster than the ability to pay for it. That will make it harder and harder to attract talent, but it's not hurting the IT job market yet.

If you do something that is historically low paying, then I agree that the Boise area is not going to be as attractive as home prices rise if you're working at Starbucks or Home Depot. (that's not to rip on anyone's job choice)

[nm9stheham]

Originally Posted by riffle

I know both places, and disagree. There is a well-documented shift in the age 20-30 population in Iowa (and other states) from rural to urban areas, and Des Moines is a recipient of that. Compared to Boise, which is a lifestyle destination with transplants from out of state and in older age groups, including retirees. See the attached graphs - very similar shape across the decades (I looked at the 80s, too) just different magnitude.

The article in the OP calls out service sectors as not themselves driving growth, but fails to explain why these sectors have grown in the first place. The money is coming from somewhere...

https://netmigration.wisc.edu/

FWIW.....and sorry for the looong post.

This is getting closer to seeing what is broad prosperity. Unfortunately, folks confuse 'trendy' and 'livable' and such with prosperity. Trendy is a sign of spending money, not creating wealth; they may go together, but just as often do not. Articles like those in Politico and Livability miss the mark quite badly.

The Brookings article is hitting the core truth behind what is actual prosperity; some sectors are mostly wealth producers and others are mostly costs to society. If you really want prosperity, undrstand which are which as a staring point to making decisions. And also, riffle hints at another factor the wealth has to come from somewhere. It can come locally or be 'imported'.

If you start with groups like this, then at least you can start to sort out what actually creates wealth and true prosperity. These groups are arranged in an intentional order.

1. Wealth creators which depend on creating human wealth from the earth:
- Agriculture: (The main source of Des Moines' actual wealth is the surrounding agriculture)
- Timber
- Mining
- Petroleum and gas

2. Wealth creators that are not direct 'from the earth' activities. These take natural resources and change them to products that enhance our lives:
- Manufacturing of all types, including refining
- Utilities
- Construction, and the associated A&E work

3. Wealth spreading activities; hubs of these activities accumulate wealth in a locality
- Transportation
- Retail
- Distribution

4. Wealth sources which bring wealth into a local area from other areas, and so are not creators of new wealth to humankind:
- Tourism and entertainment
- Financial services
- Importing and exporting

5. Wealth 'supporters' that give us benefit for our expenditures on them but by themselves are mostly on the cost side of the equation:
- Government (which is an importer of wealth to Boise from other parts of the state);
- Education (universities are also importers of wealth from the outside)
- Medical (human maintenance)
- Maintenance & repair activities

(And I personally have a hard time deciding where things like IT and cell phones fall, beyond the construction part.)

One of the next steps IMHO is to understand which of the above groups more tend to create broad based wealth for a wide range of people and which do not. Groups 1 and 2 tend to do that more.... groups 4 and 5 tend to do so less.

IMHO, a healthy mix of all groups produces the best prosperity, where there are a good mix of different professions and trades. I did not stay in the Charlottesville VA area beyond 2 years for exactly that reason; it is pretty and 'trendy' but the core of wealth is the university, and it does not promote a broad wealth pattern across all segments of society.

Pittsburgh is my favorite example that has managed to maintain a healthy mix of blue collar and white collar work, and maintain broad affordability for living. Pittsburgh took a tremendous financial blow with the collapse of the US steel industry in the 70's, but a willingness to embrace many forms of wealth creation seems to have done the trick. (Plus it did not have to deal with a large influx of new citizens like Boise is.) It's 'trendy' includes a big beer hall near downtown, as well as wine boutiques.

[Big_Hitter]

good because my property taxes went up $3K this year