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Iran wants to be a big player in the middle east for a lot of reasons.
It's the largest Shi'a nation, and the Shia have always been the underdogs in Islam, which is mostly Sunni, so they have a religious agenda.
They have a large population that is young, better educated than other surrounding nations, and more technologically savvy. The leaders want to put all these young people to work, as employment is low and the young are restless.
They have big oil reserves and a lot of oil money. They want to become a rival financial power to the Saudis and the other Arab states. Iranians are a different people- they are Persians, not Arabs. and Persia was the big middle east power off and on for many centuries.
Like other powers, including Israel, the Iranians want nuclear capability. Partly for power generation, and partly as a threat to Israel. Iran sees Israel as it's greatest threat.
The nation has a very strange (to us, at least) government. Officially it is a democracy, but the group of fundamentalist Ayatollahs (the rough equivalent of Cardinals in the Catholic church) have the final word. So the government is partly a theocracy, partly a democracy. A large part of their people want the Ayatollahs to have less influence on the government and politics than it has now, and that's an ongoing civil strife within the country.
Many Iranians would like to annex part of Iraq back into their territory. The state of Iraq was once part of Iran, and the British arbitrarily divided the two when both were under control of the fading British empire. Iran would like to take back the areas that are a majority Shia, and leave the other parts to under the control of the Sunni minority and the Kurds.
The Kurds are friends with none of them. They follow a completely different version of Islam, and the Kurdish people are native to the entire northern regions of Iraq, Iran and Turkey. They have been driven out by all 3 at one time or another, and now control N. Iraq, where all the Iraqi oil is. The Kurds are essentially running N. Iraq as a separate nation now.
Iraq was very unsettled before the war; Saddam kept it together through force, but now that they are on their own, it is all very shaky. Iran wants to exploit those divisions for its own gain. They're doing the same in Syria for many of the same reasons.
Another reason they are making a play in Syria is to stop the war. The Syrians did exactly the same in Lebanon 30 years ago, when the Lebanese civil war stalemated. That war never ended, and neither side could win, so Syrian troops moved in and stopped it, allowing the Syrian government to take over and run the country for a long time.
Perpetual war damages all the neighboring countries in many ways. The Iranians want to hold the title of Big Peace Maker there just as the Syrians once did. Going after the Syrians also gives the Iranian leadership a distraction for their own discontented people.
Very informative, Mike. Thank you for the Mideast in a nutshell. Would you say that Iran is a credible threat to Israel?
I don't think so, for the moment. Probably not for some time to come. I'm not sure that Iran sees Israel as it's primary threat, but I could be wrong; Israel doesn't want any Muslim nation to acquire nukes, period, and Iran definitely wants them, but very possibly not to use against Israel.
Iran never started a war in the 20th century, but Iraq went to war with Iran in a 10 year bloody stalemate. Iran is bordered by Pakistan, Afghanistan and Turkey as well as Iraq, and all except Turkey are very unsettled.
Israel does not share a border, but has nukes, as does Pakistan and Turkey. Nobody trusts Israel over there, but I tend to think Iran is more worried about Turkey, which is a westernized, modern and very powerful nation. I think Iran wants nukes more as parity, so that a possible Turkish, Pakistani, or Israeli threat is discouraged. Since Pakistan is in a very turbulent place right now, Iran could be very worried about them.
Iran has internal problems, for sure. The Ayatollahs who have the final word in the government aren't very popular with the young people, who want to be more like Turkey, and more than half the population is under age 35.
They are 80% literate there, and the population is expected to reach 100 million eventually- it's now 75 million. That's large. Egypt's population in higher at 82 million, and is #1. Turkey is #2, and Iran is #3. So the internal problems in Iran are not insignificant.
I think that if the U.S. stays out of their affairs and has some patience, our relations with Iran in the future could become much different than they are now.
Their democracy is essentially non-sectarian, but in it's present form, it would be like if we had a council of ultra-orthodox, extremely conservative priests sitting separately, but above our President, Congress, and Courts. With full veto power over all.
If the Ayatollahs lose most of their power, Iran could easily become much more westernized and much friendlier to the U.S. We must remember that their revolution was bloodless- there was no civil war, and as a democracy, Iranians have much done better than all the countries who have more recently become democracies in the area.
Iran wants to be a big player in the middle east for a lot of reasons.
It's the largest Shi'a nation, and the Shia have always been the underdogs in Islam, which is mostly Sunni, so they have a religious agenda.
They have a large population that is young, better educated than other surrounding nations, and more technologically savvy. The leaders want to put all these young people to work, as employment is low and the young are restless.
They have big oil reserves and a lot of oil money. They want to become a rival financial power to the Saudis and the other Arab states. Iranians are a different people- they are Persians, not Arabs. and Persia was the big middle east power off and on for many centuries.
Like other powers, including Israel, the Iranians want nuclear capability. Partly for power generation, and partly as a threat to Israel. Iran sees Israel as it's greatest threat.
The nation has a very strange (to us, at least) government. Officially it is a democracy, but the group of fundamentalist Ayatollahs (the rough equivalent of Cardinals in the Catholic church) have the final word. So the government is partly a theocracy, partly a democracy. A large part of their people want the Ayatollahs to have less influence on the government and politics than it has now, and that's an ongoing civil strife within the country.
Many Iranians would like to annex part of Iraq back into their territory. The state of Iraq was once part of Iran, and the British arbitrarily divided the two when both were under control of the fading British empire. Iran would like to take back the areas that are a majority Shia, and leave the other parts to under the control of the Sunni minority and the Kurds.
The Kurds are friends with none of them. They follow a completely different version of Islam, and the Kurdish people are native to the entire northern regions of Iraq, Iran and Turkey. They have been driven out by all 3 at one time or another, and now control N. Iraq, where all the Iraqi oil is. The Kurds are essentially running N. Iraq as a separate nation now.
Iraq was very unsettled before the war; Saddam kept it together through force, but now that they are on their own, it is all very shaky. Iran wants to exploit those divisions for its own gain. They're doing the same in Syria for many of the same reasons.
Another reason they are making a play in Syria is to stop the war. The Syrians did exactly the same in Lebanon 30 years ago, when the Lebanese civil war stalemated. That war never ended, and neither side could win, so Syrian troops moved in and stopped it, allowing the Syrian government to take over and run the country for a long time.
Perpetual war damages all the neighboring countries in many ways. The Iranians want to hold the title of Big Peace Maker there just as the Syrians once did. Going after the Syrians also gives the Iranian leadership a distraction for their own discontented people.
Some good info... I don't understand much aboout the mid east. Like most people, you hear bits and pieces and I never really understood the dynamics over there. In general it sounds like a mess. The Israel/ Iran thing. That Ahmedinnerjacket guy is always running his mouth off calling Israel a "rotting corpse", and other pleasantries......
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