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They have plug-ins (BEV + PHEV) bundled at 9.51% of new vehicle market share in August. The possibility of reaching 10% plug-in market share by some time this year in one of the remaining four months of year doesn't seem that nutty given that plug-ins were at 9.23% in July. If it's a roughly linear extrapolation for the rest of the year then that would put it in October, but there's a high level of variability from month to month though overall trends are that they're increasing.
Both pro and anti EV factions can find what they want to see in the news.
A number of automakers are either struggling to sell EVs at all, and/or struggling to make a profit on them. Tesla though is selling good numbers of units and making money doing it.
I read that complaints about public charging infrastructure have actually been increasing - that's due to the increased number of customers, which is probably growing faster than the chargers themselves. On the other hand, Tesla's NACS interface is on its way to becoming a North American standard, and Tesla has struck deals with numerous traditional automakers to support their vehicles on the Tesla network. A coalition of automakers - BMW, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, and Stellantis are collaborating to set up another charging network in North America.
This is a time of change, and I think that a certain amount of growing pains, of things advancing in fits and starts, of uncertainty on some questions, is to be expected. So far though, the clear trend overall remains +EV.
Both pro and anti EV factions can find what they want to see in the news.
A number of automakers are either struggling to sell EVs at all, and/or struggling to make a profit on them. Tesla though is selling good numbers of units and making money doing it.
I read that complaints about public charging infrastructure have actually been increasing - that's due to the increased number of customers, which is probably growing faster than the chargers themselves. On the other hand, Tesla's NACS interface is on its way to becoming a North American standard, and Tesla has struck deals with numerous traditional automakers to support their vehicles on the Tesla network. A coalition of automakers - BMW, GM, Honda, Hyundai, Kia, Mercedes, and Stellantis are collaborating to set up another charging network in North America.
This is a time of change, and I think that a certain amount of growing pains, of things advancing in fits and starts, of uncertainty on some questions, is to be expected. So far though, the clear trend overall remains +EV.
Definitely a lot of change happening. Tesla's a majority of US EV market share and it appears that the reports of EVs sitting on lots excludes direct to consumer automakers which would include Tesla, so those reports would be missing a majority of the EV market. In addition to Tesla, other direct to consumer automakers operating in the US are Lucid, Polestar, and Rivian, and recently Fisker and Vinfast, which all offer only EVs in the US. Those don't have sales numbers anywhere close to Tesla, but of them, Rivian is doing surprisingly well with just two premium consumer models and charting just under Volkswagen and above Kia for BEV registrations. Collectively with Tesla, the direct to consumer automakers make a pretty healthy majority of EV sales.
The concept of automaker-installed chargers is an odd one, but I guess others are joining in after seeing Tesla have success with it. Rivian has its Rivan Adventure Network chargers which are exclusive to Rivian vehicles for DC chargers (for now) that have the green three bolt icon and open to all other vehicles for their level 2 waypoint chargers with the white single bolt icon and they're often being placed in some pretty far flung places with a goal of trying to make backroads and national parks more accessible to EVs which is a pretty odd niche. I wonder how much cost Rivian is going to incur to revamp their existing network for NACS. It's also odd to me that given they produce their vehicles in Normal, Illinois that Rivian has installed so few chargers.
I wonder how much a fix moving to NACS will actually be, because it's possible that having a very limited number of models that can use Tesla Superchargers and having the chargers designed for a limited set of vehicles might be part of why Tesla chargers have been so reliable and have had such rapid deployment. Opening it up might not be all that much of a panacea, but on the other hand, Europe with its cementing of CCS similar to the CCS fast charging we have in the US seems to have not nearly the scale of uptime issues that North America is having and they've moved towards plug-ins considerably faster than the US and Canada have which makes the issues that CCS charging networks we have here all the more confusing.
Last edited by OyCrumbler; 09-18-2023 at 09:26 AM..
You could buy a Tesla Model 3 right now cheaper than a similarly optioned Honda Civic after tax credits. I found a Civic hatchback EX or Touring. Honda is selling for $33k. The Model 3 would be around $30k
You could buy a Tesla Model 3 right now cheaper than a similarly optioned Honda Civic after tax credits. I found a Civic hatchback EX or Touring. Honda is selling for $33k. The Model 3 would be around $30k
Those are also two different segments both in size and where in the market they're placed. The Model 3 is more in the size segment of the Honda Accord, and it's also placed in the premium market so the Honda Motors equivalent would be the Acura equivalent of the Accord, the Acura TLX. The Acura TLX has about the same starting price as the Tesla Model 3 *prior* to any incentives and the operating costs should generally be much lower for the Model 3 since the TLX uses premium fuel and is substantially less energy efficient.
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At some point, possibly soon the "early adopters" who are EV enthusiasts will all have theirs, and sales will slow, some sources consider that to already be here. I keep seeing more articles about people turning in their EV for a gas car due to the problems with charging on the road. On Friday I drove from Abbotsford, B.C. Canada to Woodinville Washington all 180 miles on highway 9. We never saw an EV charger on that trip, so for fun I did a search. The first one from the Canadian border is in Arlington WA, about 88 miles, then one in nearby Lake Stevens, a few in Snohomish then more in Woodinville (Chargepoint and Blink). I suppose it's not a problem since any EV should go more than 88 miles on a charge, and on that trip, all very rural, we never saw any EVs on the road until a Tesla just before Woodinville.
One way to get a sense of how EV adoption has gone once higher market share numbers are reached is to look at the range of numbers and general trends that other places have seen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electr...y#Market_share
These countries and regions can have very different conditions whether economic or environmental, though there's a general trend line there. In the US, California's an interesting outlier as it's looking like it'll close out the year with something like a quarter of vehicle market share being plug-ins which would be quite a large increase from the 18.7% it saw last year in 2022 and would point to an accelerating adoption rate rather than linear growth. That would also be in line with several of the other places in the chart and the global average overall. I think one interesting thing to note is the slowdown once market share hits an overwhelming majority as seen in Norway which would be like a S-curve adoption rate of new technologies are often like though the places in the list have very wide variation in how the pace of increasing market share has grown.
EV sales numbers in the US and many countries are influenced by government (national or local/state level) funded rebates. In Germany, the government rebates on EVs that were eligible for commercial (business) vehicle sales ended on August 30, and since then overall EV sales have dropped fast. There was a big bubble in August sales because businesses were getting in on the last round of rebates. There has been a healthy demand for EVs by business to use as delivery vehicles and as local service vehicles (for example home care health assistants who drive from house to house). The big Zwickau VW EV factory about 25 miles west of Chemnitz has already announced production and personnel cuts.
IMO EV rebates are unfair, as it distorts the free market. A large share of those who have benefited from the rebates are on the high end of the income scale, who have the least need for government handouts (which is what a rebate is). I am not anti-EV by any means, I think they are great for many things especially local delivery and service vehicles as well as commuter cars. If the government wants to encourage more people to buy EVs, work on state and local levels to cut the red tape and other obstacles for charging networks to get installed. Work on more standardization of charging with the manufacturers. But don't hand out bags of money to every EV buyer.
I am surprised it is only 7;% with all of the rebates given out for EVs and the govt mandates on the horizon. I thought it would have been much higher.
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