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This is a non-issue. Scientists started telling us that the world population had surpassed the earths ability to sustain it in the 70s. The human population burden has poisoned all the natural resources needed to support us since it hit 5 billion. Not only are our natural resources over-burdened, but also our artificial resources. One could reasonably argue that all of our individual and social conflicts are over a scarcity of resources.
I looked up the fertility rate among Amish.
Holy cow! ....... When do those people have time to build barns, and how do the men have enough energy left!?
They still have a fertility rate of around 6.
I predict it will decrease further out in time, as there entire lifestyle constantly depends on finding rural less crowded areas with severely depressed land prices. They are leaving places like Lancaster County, PA due to sharply rising land prices and population. Therefore, I think there numbers will start growing at a slower rate as most of the available farmland will be accounted for with a far higher value.
For example, there are VERY FEW Amish in the middle of the Corn Belt. Why? Land prices are much higher due to agricultural soils being more higher value with greater yields and productivity. You now see more moving to marginally poor agricultural areas of Missouri that are severely economically depressed with low land values.
Last edited by GraniteStater; 06-23-2021 at 10:35 AM..
I'm skeptical, as mental health issues among young women are on the rise.
More disposal income doesn't always equate to a "better life", despite our system teaching the opposite.
Also, I feel other factors are contributing, air pollution, stress, our generally poor diet when compared to organic farmers such as the Amish.
And definitely lack of exercise, as our bodies were designed for manual labor.
Could be, some of it. But remember that women are making a conscious choice to have fewer children, and we're talking about women all over the world. Put another way, women are not trying to have more children and failing. They are pursuing education and careers instead, because that's what they see as a better life.
The Amish will do fine, though, no matter what we non-Amish do.
Personally, I would be happy if everyone restricted themselves to one live birth, or abstained completely.
Think about it for a moment:
If a law were passed and women were forbidden to have children, then in 35 years or so the human population would be doomed, since women over 35 or 40 can generally not have children and the youngest woman on the planet would be that age. And fuggetabout finding prenatal health care!
A one-child policy also dooms humanity but would take longer.
For that matter, anything under 2.1 fertility rate dooms the human race, too, but it would take a while...
The conversation above about the Amish is very interesting because even though the Amish community is very small they may be on earth to witness the passing of the last urbanite!
That won't happen, of course, but it does illustrate the point.
Whoever commented that we all may end up driving buggies may actually be on to something. I cannot believe that the human race is doomed, but I find it very easy to see that earth will become less populated and humans less ubiquitous. There may be portions of the earth where very few people live.
The whole thing may cycle. We may become agrarian in 200 years, start having large families, and then start moving to cities all over again as population grows.
I remember a UN person in the 1980s saying the most effective form of birth control was TV because as soon as women in African and Indian villages saw western tv shows like Dallas they realised their life could involve more than raising 7 or 8 children.
More seriuosly, if the world does start reducing population the main issues initially will be economic. Examples like clearing housing stock to try and maintain land values (see Italian villages selling abandoned houses for 1 Euro.), a part of gdp growth is just pop growth so reducing pop will mean declining gdp, fewer migrant workers for low wage work proably means higher basic wages, etc. The challenge will be to do it reasonably which I think Japan is getting close to achieving. Russia and Italy are concerns but the real worry is China as their one child policy means they will compress the transition to effectively one maybe two generations. Made worse because they are still poor and have little social safety net.
A one-child policy also dooms humanity but would take longer.
For that matter, anything under 2.1 fertility rate dooms the human race, too, but it would take a while...
Fertility rates will rise and fall. Just because it drops below 2 for a few decades doesn't doom the human race; there will still be a viable breeding population (OMG, world population has dropped to only 6 billion!), and fertility rates will rise if there's incentive.
I imagine that if the government starts substantial monthly payments for each child, the birthrate will rise. But see the movie Idiocracy.
First World countries like the US will probably encourage immigration if more workers are needed. I read that Japan is working on healthcare robots to care for its aging population.
I think the world population could fall dramatically and that would be an improvement.
Fertility rates will rise and fall. (1) Just because it drops below 2 for a few decades doesn't doom the human race; there will still be a viable breeding population (OMG, world population has dropped to only 6 billion!), and fertility rates will rise if there's incentive(2).
I imagine that if the government starts substantial monthly payments for each child, the birthrate will rise. But see the movie Idiocracy.
First World countries like the US will probably encourage immigration if more workers are needed(3). I read that Japan is working on healthcare robots to care for its aging population.
I think the world population could fall dramatically and that would be an improvement.
(1) Not so far, they haven't. Fertility rates have only fallen since the baby boom era, and that was an anomaly. If you look at fertility rates and population growth for 60 years, the rates have only fallen. (2) So far, no incentive has worked. Singapore, who is awash in money, has failed as have Sweden, Russia and every Asian government. (3) I think you're exactly right. America and Canada will do just fine. Asian governments will not because outsiders are not welcome in Asian countries. Japan may well collapse completely, many years from now. South Korea, too, is on the road to collapse.
Think about it for a moment:
If a law were passed and women were forbidden to have children, then in 35 years or so the human population would be doomed, since women over 35 or 40 can generally not have children and the youngest woman on the planet would be that age. And fuggetabout finding prenatal health care!
A one-child policy also dooms humanity but would take longer.
For that matter, anything under 2.1 fertility rate dooms the human race, too, but it would take a while...
...
Listener, if you re-read my post, I mentioned nothing about making a law. Instead, I specified self-restriction, as in a personal choice.
To say the human race is doomed because of a population reduction via attrition is absurd. Eventually the population would correct itself to a level sustainable and then would more likely begin growing exponentially as it has been.
According to the outcome of the studies of our human genome project, modern human life is a result of a pair of Africans who took advantage of the low water levels at the time, and migrated across the wetlands connecting the African continent to the Saudi Peninsula.
Listener, if you re-read my post, I mentioned nothing about making a law.
Instead, I specified self-restriction, as in a personal choice.
Exactly. The only way it can work is as a "bottom up" choice NOT a "top down" dictum.
That said... some practical rewards can be offered, will need to be, as a part of it all.
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