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The global population will begin to shrink very soon, perhaps as soon as 10 years. And once it begins to decline, it will never stop declining. That's a fact, according to some demographers. They make a pretty compelling case for the ever-shrinking human population in the book Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline. Their case, in simple terms, revolves around the emancipation of women and urbanization. It's more complicated than that, though, so interested parties should read the book or some of the many articles written about the subject.
Many countries are already on the decline and many more will join. Some governments will collapse - I mean cease to exist! There simply will not be enough people living in Bulgaria (to pick one) to support a government. Italy has noted that it is a dying country already.
So what will the world be like in 100 years? IN 2200, it is projected that the world will have about the same population as we do today, but the population will be much older. And old people (I am one) are not productive. We become a burden on our countries....
Population will grow again. A static analysis that extrapolates short term trends is what got us the population bomb prediction.
When population grows again is anyone's guess. Maybe we will invent ectogenesis and corporations will grow employees in jars. Maybe we will develop general artificial intelligence and Homo terminus will be a thing.
Or more likely, the labor crunch caused by falling populations will increase wages, allowing people to afford more space and children than they can now. So children will be born.
Population will grow again. A static analysis that extrapolates short term trends is what got us the population bomb prediction.
When population grows again is anyone's guess. Maybe we will invent ectogenesis and corporations will grow employees in jars. Maybe we will develop general artificial intelligence and Homo terminus will be a thing.
Or more likely, the labor crunch caused by falling populations will increase wages, allowing people to afford more space and children than they can now. So children will be born.
The experts say, "No."
In fact, they point out that the fertility rate (average number of children born to each woman) has been falling for a very long time. Women fought for - and won - the right to own property, the right to vote, for equal wages, and for equal status. And as they won, the fertility rate decreased.
Women do not elect to become childless because they cannot afford to raise children; they elect to become childless because there is a better life for them with fewer or no children.
Anything less than an average of 2.1 means population decrease. And nearly every country in the world is now at less than 2.1.
Gather 6 couple-friends around the dinner table. Do you count 13 children among those couples? .... No? Then you are not unusual, because we can't, either.
So it is happening and will continue. The question is, "What will the world be like in 100 years?..... How about 150?"
the world grew by 78 people in the 30 seconds I watched it.
If the world actually does slow its growth and start going the other direction, maybe it will be a more sustainable population. Effectively there will be more resources and less pollution per capita, etc.
the world grew by 78 people in the 30 seconds I watched it.
If the world actually does slow its growth and start going the other direction, maybe it will be a more sustainable population. Effectively there will be more resources and less pollution per capita, etc.
Your source projects a population of 10B people by 2100. But it also shows a decreasing growth rate, which is now almost zero.
Do you accept that?
The only thing worrying about a shrinking population is a major plague, killing millions, and not enough people to maintain our infrastructure, nuclear power plants, etc.
I just read a bio of Himmler, and, surprisingly, even before Hitler came to power, Germans were only having one or two children, way back then. Hitler wanted to increase that to 6 per couple.
The only thing worrying about a shrinking population is a major plague, killing millions, and not enough people to maintain our infrastructure, nuclear power plants, etc.
I just read a bio of Himmler, and, surprisingly, even before Hitler came to power, Germans were only having one or two children, way back then. Hitler wanted to increase that to 6 per couple.
The need for so much infrastructure will diminish and a lot of it will simply be abandoned. The winners in that world will be the countries with the most to offer - at this point Canada and America. The losers will be those who are reviled by outsiders - countries like China and Russia. Russia, BTW, has been struggling with a diminishing population for many years. With a fertility rate of 1.6, Russia has one of the oldest populations in the world. Median age 40.3 years.
Russia's population peaked in 1993 at 148M people, and discounting Crimea, is now at 142M. So it is kind of a peak into the future.
A better look may be Bulgaria, whose population is now down to the levels last seen in 1947. At some point the government of Bulgaria may fail completely as the population becomes too small and too old to support infrastructure.
No particular reference will be cited, as there are many references available.
North America may, at some point, contain a huge portion of the world's population (That is my own opinion), even though the population of America is not much different than it is today.
The global population will begin to shrink very soon, perhaps as soon as 10 years.
No need to get worried about it now. World’s population is projected to nearly stop growing by the end of the century. Till then, the population is expected to grow.
By 2100, the world’s population is projected to reach approximately 10.9 billion, with annual growth of less than 0.1%
However, Africa is the only world region projected to have strong population growth for the rest of this century. Projections show these gains will come mostly in sub-Saharan Africa, which is expected to more than triple in population by 2100. https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tan...f-the-century/
I don't think there is a danger that wars or plagues could make a significant dent.
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