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While CA is mandating that no gas powered vehicles to be sold by 2035 and only BEV (Battery powered Electric Vehicles) to be sold. But the harsh reality is that, car makers won't be able to meet the demand and the infrastructure won't even be close to providing the electrical grid necessary.
There's simply not enough minerals to produce that many batteries. That's the simple truth.
We don't have the manpower to setup the charging network at every parking spot. Look at how many solar panels on rooftops that's been installed the last 25 years. That's how long and how many charging spots will be available in 25 years.
It doesn't matter if everybody is given a free Tesla, it would be quite useless for majority of people who don't own a home nor close to a charging spot to connect regularly.
Go watch the documentary on cobalt mining and tell me why are we pushing for EVs when there's simply not enough minerals and workers to mine the precious minerals and humanitarian catastrophe to subject these miners at the worst possible conditions.
Manufacturers are already phasing out the use of cobalt in batteries. Newer, better, cleaner, cheaper alternatives are already being used. Cobalt shortage is a short-term issue.
Gas pumps will be ripped out and replaced with EV chargers.
Hell, if we geared up the nation and won WW-2 in just under 4 years then I think we can put in a bunch of re-chargers and build ever-better batteries by 2035.
Bloomberg is reporting today that $100B will be the cumulative money invested globally by the end of this year to build charging stations. Excerpt: "Cumulative investment globally probably will pass the $100 billion mark in 2023 if China keeps up its relentless pace. It’s a milestone that hints at the transition to a new phase of the EV charging sector lifecycle. As Jigar Shah at the US Loans Program puts it, $100 billion of deployed capital indicates an ability to address systemic industry challenges and opens up access to low-cost capital that’s required to ultimately reach $1 trillion scale."
The law says gasoline powered vehicles may not be sold by 2035 but millions will still be on the road after that date.
No cause for alarm or concern, we'll get there, and it will be a better day for us all.
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Last edited by Mike from back east; 01-10-2023 at 03:21 PM..
It's going to be a long, long, long time before EVs make ICE obsolete. I am 37 and will be very surprised if ICEs go the way of the dodo while I am still driving. I bet I'll be retired long before there are more EVs than ICEs on the road.
Realistically, what percentage of new cars being sold will be EVs in 2030? 10-20 percent? Which means that 80-90% of new cars in 2030 will still be ICE. And with the average age of cars on the road in the USA being about 12 years, that means you can expect 80-90% of cars on the road in 2042 to be powered by gasoline.
Hell, if we geared up the nation and won WW-2 in just under 4 years then I think we can put in a bunch of re-chargers and build ever-better batteries by 2035.
The difference is when WW2 broke out the USA had minimal debt and was the most productive nation in the world. After WW2, the USA made lots of money rebuilding the rest of the world. In 2023 the USA is 30 Trillion in debt, has a structural budget deficit of over $1Trillion each year and spends over 9% of its budget just paying interest on the debt. As our debt refinances at higher interest rates that interest will increase significantly. Bottom line is the USA is in a tough spot and will have to eliminate discretionary spending, including green energy subsidies, and cut back on everything else while raising taxes just to get by. It's going to be rough.
The idea of eliminating tailpipe emissions is great and the theory of 100% electric everything powered by low emission sources is well worth pursuing. But it doesn't make sense to force the technology into use before it's ready and likely counterproductive.
Hell, if we geared up the nation and won WW-2 in just under 4 years then I think we can put in a bunch of re-chargers and build ever-better batteries by 2035.
The imperatives operative back then, simply don't exist anymore. It's not because the present generation is somehow weak or deficient. It's not. Rather, the forcing-function simply isn't the same. We don't have the same metaphorical fire under our posteriors.
Electric transportation has many manifest advantages. Philosophical objections to its proliferation tend to be peevish and insubstantial. But the material objections are substantial indeed. Even here in heavily EV-oriented Los Angeles, EV charging stations aren't exactly common or convenient. I struggle to see how that would much improve in the next 5-10 years. Regulatory pressures prevent any construction project, even one that's manifestly useful and aligned with the stated goals of the local government. In other words, the government can't get organized to advance even its own objectives.
That's on the civic infrastructure side. What about the vehicle manufacturing side? To develop completely new vehicles, takes... a while. It took Tesla what, 15 years, to go from initial sketch-on-a-napkin to a viable mass market EV? And this is an agile and relentlessly innovative company. If among the "legacy" manufacturers, the race to build EVs started some 5-7 years ago, how long before they have a proudly displayed set of prototypes on the car-show carpeted floor, let alone actual vehicles in actual dealerships?
We may wish to revisit this thread, say on an annual basis, to reassess how the various predictions have fared.
That's on the civic infrastructure side. What about the vehicle manufacturing side? To develop completely new vehicles, takes... a while. It took Tesla what, 15 years, to go from initial sketch-on-a-napkin to a viable mass market EV? And this is an agile and relentlessly innovative company. If among the "legacy" manufacturers, the race to build EVs started some 5-7 years ago, how long before they have a proudly displayed set of prototypes on the car-show carpeted floor, let alone actual vehicles in actual dealerships?
While I share your sentiment on EVs taking a long time to really take hold, this paragraph is a bit off-base. The legacy automakers are putting cars in dealerships now.
Legacy automakers are moving at full ahead ramming speed to have full lines of BEVs asap. It seems every month another billion dollar battery plant is being earmarked for construction here in the USA.
I recommend we look at it as analogous to how the PC took over desktops at home, work and at school.
The first PCs hit the market about 1975 and by the time my Army agency was in the thick of sending hundreds of shiploads of gear and munitions to Desert Storm in 1990 we had a PC on every desktop at all of our 33 seaport locations around the world. I know, I helped to plan and buy most of them.
Gasoline powered vehicles will be around long after 2035 but eventually will be as rare as 56k dial up modems are today.
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Last edited by Mike from back east; 01-12-2023 at 04:04 PM..
EV's are catching the low hanging fruit now, which is the upper class and upper middle class consumer who can purchase one for easy local transport. The increase in sales and percent of market will increase in the next few years until this market is saturated.
Once this market is full, then things will tighten up. EV's do not make sense for the middle class. The price is far too high and there is no resale because once the battery is spent the car is close to worthless. Many in the middle class buy used cars or depend on trade ins which will be a joke, unless you want to drop 15-20K on a battery.
Trucks, forget it for now. Not even worth discussing at this point.
Most of the EV manufactures are moving away from using the ICE platform for building these EV's. They are designing them from the ground up using mostly aluminum. This comes at a huge environmental cost,aluminum production has a considerable CO 2 footprint, at 8.24 kg of CO2 per kg of aluminum extracted, as the demand for aluminum increases so will the CO2 tonnage.
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