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The cold looks certain. Now if we can just time it right with moisture for some snow (and not ice!). The human NOAA probability maps put i85 and northward (of corse!) at 10% chance of 2.5” sleet/snow(or .25” liquid equivalent, assuming standard ratio of 10:1) Friday the 23rd. Let’s see if that changes as we get closer (their 4 to 7 day probability maps (click/tap the dates just above the map for each day, colors represent % chance of sleet/snow and not rain/snow lines): https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd...medr.php?day=4 ) wouldn’t trust any snow forecast until like 1-3 days out though.
The cold looks certain. Now if we can just time it right with moisture for some snow (and not ice!). The human NOAA probability maps put i85 and northward (of corse!) at 10% chance of 2.5” sleet/snow(or .25” liquid equivalent, assuming standard ratio of 10:1) Friday the 23rd. Let’s see if that changes as we get closer (their 4 to 7 day probability maps (click/tap the dates just above the map for each day, colors represent % chance of sleet/snow and not rain/snow lines): https://origin.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd...medr.php?day=4 ) wouldn’t trust any snow forecast until like 1-3 days out though.
That's what seems to be the problem* every year. We just never match the temps up with the moisture. We got a couple of times last year.. But I remember the year before.. There were a bunch of times where the moisture would get in JUST before or after the cold temps. Sometimes it missed just by a couple of hours.
Well, the problem or the good timing, whichever way you want to look at it.
As of Sat AM: And NOAA probability map…back to 0% chance! Local NWS has notice for Western NC, Northeast GA, North of Hwy11 Greenville/Pickens Co, and all of Oconee Co. for possible light snow and low wind chills late next week. Again, unless it’s within the 3 day forecast, wouldn’t trust it in the South, and even then it’s on the verge of flipping either way typ.
As of Monday morning there’s a slight chance of a stray flake or sleet pellet Tuesday evening (one of those non-zero chance things…only mentioning since first shot of frozen precip of the season and near Christmas). Local NWS still has slight chance of snow Friday as cold rushes in behind front (which cold chasing moisture rarely works out for us).
No surprise, it seems like an almost impossible task for the Upstate of SC to get snow. Oh well, til next time.
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