2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season Predictions (Houston, Galveston: rentals, homes, getaway)

[ParaguaneroSwag]

Originally Posted by elnina

The predictions probably change few times before the season begins.

Yes. That’s because there are lots of different people each with their own prediction. So of course it’s going to change every time someone suggests someone different

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Texas100

This prediction is basically a crap shoot. They don't know what the weather will be any more than we do. The predictions are so vague that its anyones guess. For instance if I told you thatI I predict it will be hot this year in July.

Not even slightly.

This summer is shaping up to be a La Nina year. Hurricanes like La Ninas because in La Nina years there is little to no windshear over the Caribbean. Windshear tears hurricanes apart and wind shear is prevalent in El Nino years. By contrast, Tornadoes love windshear. So La Nina years mean more hurricanes and more powerful ones and El Nino years mean more tornadoes and more powerful ones.

The 2nd thing hurricanes love is warm waters which will be in abundance this year as they are every year.

What hurricane forecasts cannot tell you is exactly how many will develop so that relies on averages. They also cannot tell you exactly where any will hit. But they can tell you what conditions are like for hurricanes should they develop.

There is a lot that goes into hurricane predictions and forecasting. What you are saying is "I dont know anything about it, therefore no one knows anything about it". Extremely arrogant on your part.

[Jack Lance]

The upper Texas coast has had major hurricanes hit about every 20 to 25 years for the past hundred years or so. 1900, 1915 , 1942, 1962, 1983, 2008 so I predict the next major Hurricane to hit the upper coast in 2029?

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

The upper Texas coast has had major hurricanes hit about every 20 to 25 years for the past hundred years or so. 1900, 1915 , 1942, 1962, 1983, 2008 so I predict the next major Hurricane to hit the upper coast in 2029?

You do realize Hurricane forecasts are for everywhere, not just Houston right?

[LocalPlanner]

Apparently, La Nina (sorry, too lazy to go get the tilde "n") tends to up the frequency of major storms in the Atlantic / Gulf of Mexico, and we're in the process of switching from El Nino to La Nina right now. It also might make our local summer less subjective to horrible heat domes and droughts like last year, so, yay for that I guess?

Regardless, I've become perhaps overly fatalistic about hurricanes on the TX coast (really everywhere along the Gulf). Because of warming waters, increased sea level, and the gentle continental shelf slope off of TX and LA shores, there is potential for really high storm surge in a major storm. Maybe well above where the Galveston Seawall and the bayside levees top out. I know there's efforts to mitigate this risk with the "Ike ****" or similar project, but who knows if/when that really comes to pass.

I hate to sound so pessimistic, but it's hard for me not to feel that the wrong storm could make Galveston a goner and the Bay a horrifying environmental disaster. And the current storm forecast didn't help.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

You do realize Hurricane forecasts are for everywhere, not just Houston right?

You do realize this is the Houston forum and the concern most people here have about hurricanes is how it will affect Houston, on top of that my forecast was a bit tongue-n-cheek.

[Jack Lance]

Originally Posted by LocalPlanner

Apparently, La Nina (sorry, too lazy to go get the tilde "n") tends to up the frequency of major storms in the Atlantic / Gulf of Mexico, and we're in the process of switching from El Nino to La Nina right now. It also might make our local summer less subjective to horrible heat domes and droughts like last year, so, yay for that I guess?

Regardless, I've become perhaps overly fatalistic about hurricanes on the TX coast (really everywhere along the Gulf). Because of warming waters, increased sea level, and the gentle continental shelf slope off of TX and LA shores, there is potential for really high storm surge in a major storm. Maybe well above where the Galveston Seawall and the bayside levees top out. I know there's efforts to mitigate this risk with the "Ike ****" or similar project, but who knows if/when that really comes to pass.

I hate to sound so pessimistic, but it's hard for me not to feel that the wrong storm could make Galveston a goner and the Bay a horrifying environmental disaster. And the current storm forecast didn't help.

I do share your concern however there are a couple of reasons not to be so fatalistic. One a category 5 hurricane has never hit the Texas coast. Two this storm surge that you fear of causing a major environmental disaster would have to hit at a precise angle to cause the catastrophe you speak of. That said it is possible,but Galveston will survive simply because it is a weekend getaway for people from Houston and as long as people in Houston still want to take day trips to Galveston there will always be a Galveston.

[Upminster-1]

The folks at CSU are among the best in the business, but all predictions are based on modeling and the data fed into them. So while I expect their forecast to be "generally" reliable, it can never be completely so.

And given the increased energy in the atmosphere in recent years, one would expect a lot of "above average" events to occur. But the where and the when and the how remain quite uncertain ( increased energy in the atmosphere implies less stability and less predictability ).

On the other hand the weather along the Texas Gulf Coast is one of the more studied areas in atmospheric science ( I used to fund atmospheric research and directed several weather/climate/pollution studies in the Houston area ).

And, disclaimer, I do have close ties with CSU, although most of the folks I knew and funded there have long since retired.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Upminster-1

The folks at CSU are among the best in the business, but all predictions are based on modeling and the data fed into them. So while I expect their forecast to be "generally" reliable, it can never be completely so.

This. CSU is the Gold Standard of hurricane forecasting.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Jack Lance

You do realize this is the Houston forum and the concern most people here have about hurricanes is how it will affect Houston, on top of that my forecast was a bit tongue-n-cheek.

The thread was started was based on the CSU forecast which looks at the entire Atlantic Basin. Doesnt matter that this is the Houston forum because that is what the thread is in reference to.