Igor Blevin's, "A Native Californian in Knoxville" (Memphis: rent, mortgage)

[Igor Blevin]

Tornadoes


Knoxville is not high for tornado risk but it is growing.

Tennessee ranks 9th for tornado frequency per square mile, but is less likely to have the severe F4 and F5 killer tornadoes than neighboring states to the south and west, so that is good. Severity is your worst risk. Better to get hit by 5 F2s than 1 F5.

Memphis and Nashville have much higher tornado risk than Knoxville.



https://www.weather.gov/ohx/swaw2019


The photo is outdated as Tennessee gets more tornadoes now than the 1950s. Tennessee used to get 11 tornadoes per year. Today it is up to 18 tornadoes per year, but this shows you the relative low risk in Knoxville (15) vs Memphis (52) or Nashville (45).

Knoxville is close to the Great Smoky Mountains in the Appalachian range, which resists tornadoes. The recent deadly tornado that ripped from Arkansas through Kentucky to Indiana would never go 250 miles on the ground in east Tennessee. It would break up in miles due to the hilly/mountain terrain.

So Knoxville is not terribly tornado prone nor prone to deadly EF4 and EF5s, nor do they last a long time, nor travel a long distance.

The risk with Knoxville is that tornadoes tend to hit at night when people can't see and are usually sleeping. So they are more deadly than the same strength hitting during the day when everybody is up and gets warned.

I don't lose sleep at night worrying about tornadoes in Knoxville. I am more likely to get into a head on accident on the road or some such more typical caused of mortality. It is always something. Tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, fires, earthquakes. We get tornadoes. The risk is moderately low. It is just in the news these days.

[Igor Blevin]

Dogs

I see a fair amount of folks out walking their dogs and have a great dog park off S. Northshore Driive. Dogs can even swim in the water near the Marina.

Sometimes I like to walk around the pretty suburbs and I don't generally see alot of people out walking, and don't see lots walking their dogs. The entry restricted subdivisions may get boring after a while.

I don't know this, but I speculate that dog walkers toss Fido in the back of the Jeep and go somewhere for a walk. We have a ton of beautiful outdoor areas and lots of trails and parks and pretty places. Some might even make the time and effort to haul Fido an hour out to the mountains for walks. So you might not see dog walkers in any given subdivision, but I see plenty of people out and around where walking can be done.

The streets and subdivisions make it hard or boring, but toss Spike in the Jeep and within 15 minutes, you have lots of options for a nice walk. That is what I will be doing when I get my German Shepherd. Once I buy him an SUV.

[TheShadow]

Igor, if you're into a bit of a drive out to the Lenoir City area, and then head south on 321 going towards the Smoky Mountains, just after you cross the bridge at the southeast end of Lenoir City by the Fort Loudon Dam, and then another bridge over the connecting river to Tellico Lake, on the right side of the highway are several roads to trailheads on the East Lakeshore Trail. This is a series of easy hiking trails along the east side of the lake with lots of water views. There are several trailheads to access the string of trails that run for 26 miles down the eastern shore of Tellico Lake. With one vehicle, you will probably need to do an "out and back" hike. I think you might like hiking here. Not all the trails reach the water, due to the banks being high in some places, but there are some river access points and views. I live across the lake in Tellico Village, which you can see from that side of the lake at some points.

https://tennesseerivervalleygeotouri...4-85a07a8078d5

[Igor Blevin]

Originally Posted by TheShadow

Igor, if you're into a bit of a drive out to the Lenoir City area, and then head south on 321 going towards the Smoky Mountains, just after you cross the bridge at the southeast end of Lenoir City by the Fort Loudon Dam, and then another bridge over the connecting river to Tellico Lake, on the right side of the highway are several roads to trailheads on the East Lakeshore Trail. This is a series of easy hiking trails along the east side of the lake with lots of water views. There are several trailheads to access the string of trails that run for 26 miles down the eastern shore of Tellico Lake. With one vehicle, you will probably need to do an "out and back" hike. I think you might like hiking here. Not all the trails reach the water, due to the banks being high in some places, but there are some river access points and views. I live across the lake in Tellico Village, which you can see from that side of the lake at some points.

https://tennesseerivervalleygeotouri...4-85a07a8078d5

Awesome. Thank you, and it will always be easy to find here. I love the beauty of Tellico Lake and it is a short drive. I am an easy half hour from Tellico Village.

[TheShadow]

Originally Posted by Igor Blevin

Awesome. Thank you, and it will always be easy to find here. I love the beauty of Tellico Lake and it is a short drive. I am an easy half hour from Tellico Village.

I like to kayak, and Tellico lake and the upstream Tellico River and various creeks are a kayakers paradise. It's like a maze of waterways easily accessed at any boat ramp.

[SaratogaSam]

Igor -

Another other thing to consider is the property tax associated with the city you choose to live in. Some cities only have Knoxville County tax, while other cities have the Knoxville County tax + a city property tax.

I would also suggest that once you've targeted a city or area to live, regularly read its local newspaper (including the opinion section) so that you understand the issues. Also, go to the City's website where you can download a plethora of good info including a map of the city with delineated neighborhoods and strategic development plans. With a map of the neighborhoods, you can cross-correlate that with Zillow/Redfin to get an idea of the price range of each neighborhood.

With all the water in the area, flood risk is a legitimate concern. Redfin will list flood risk with each listed home; "1" being the least risk and "10" being the most risk.

Lasty, if you create a login with Zillow or Redfin, you can mark a house listing as "a favorite", so that you can come back to it later, even if it's been sold, to compare against current listings.

Saratoga Sam

[ProudAmer3]

Igor, having gone through mosquito season, what was your experience? I have read in other posts that it's not too bad, depending on where you are, but this is a concern of mine, as those little pests happen to love me....lucky me!

[Barking Spider]

I get my yard sprayed once a month during summer season. Got tired of being eaten alive on back deck.

[TheShadow]

Skeeters love me, but I don't love them. They bite me, and leave my DH alone. My bites will swell up something awful. Standing water is the enemy. If you have standing water, whether it's in your gutters from a clogged downspout, a stagnant farm pond, or even a birdbath where the water isn't changed regularly, then you will have mosquitos. They don't fly far from their source, only 1/4 mile I've read. So look at the local environment where you are buying. Are there water features that could be a source of mosquitos. Are the homes well maintained? Is there a farm with a cow pond nearby? Are you on a seasonal creek, with stagnant pools as it dries up in the summer? Avoid these water sources, and you avoid mosquitos. They breed, then lay eggs in the water from which they will hatch, and then they will live under the bark of trees, or in the leaf litter, coming out at dawn and dusk to feed.

We don't have many in my area. I live on a well manicured golf course, not far from a large lake (not stagnant), and i see few skeeters. I hike in the local woods and Smoky mountains, and I take my OFF, but I rarely have to use it. YMMV

[Igor Blevin]

Drat! My favorite hot chicken in Knoxville is permanently closed. Wicked Chicken on Gay Street is no more. I would never have tried "wicked cluckin' hot" but I really loved plain "cluckin' hot". It sucks trying to be on a healthy diet. I should have eaten here 20 times by now. Instead I got 4 meals at Wicked Chicken in a year and never did get around to having the signature sandwich, and now they are gone. Dagnabit I am mad.

I know there is alot of good hot chicken in Nashville 3 hours away. I have got to find another good hot chicken in town. I know they are here, just have to find it...

In other news, I was in the housing market for about a month and gave up.

There is just NO inventory in West Knox. Slight exageration, but the volume and selection is abysmal. I resigned my lease for another year, so I will be renting until at least next summer, hoping inventories are higher and builders are making smaller homes to lower selling prices to accomodate leaping interest rates. I don't need a 3000 SQFT home and can't afford one anyway.

I do see construction everywhere I go.

There is a really large new subdivision going in called The Grove at Boyd Station at McFee and Boyd Station. I am betting these will start in the $600k if not $700. Way above my pay grade. It is within the Farragut city limits and right next door to Lenoir City.

Another fair size development called Westland Oaks off Westland Dr near the Pellisippi Parkway (actually Interstate 140). HOmes starting at $500k.

There is another pretty big one in Hardin Valley with homes looking to be $600k & up. Builders are not building starter homes as there is no profit in it. They paid too much for land and materials/labor costs are skyrocketing.

Researching my Knoxville move, all I ever read was "move to Farragut". What nobody bothered to say is, you have to be fairly loaded to do so.

You aren't going to find any cheap starter homes and all the customs are half million and up, sometimes way up. I realize many of the olds posts were based on lower prices, but I don't think that lasted long and was never "cheap" for Knoxville in any event. Farragut and surrounds is a wonderful place to live, but you need serious $$$ toward the ante. For us mere mortals, I don't know where I will end up being able to afford. I think I can do $400k or so, and that doesn't get you much these days. It is tough. Admittedly, it is still much cheaper than good neighborhoods in Sacramento, where I came from.

Anyway, if you go to Google Earth, you will see 20 to 25 patches of yellow earth all over Knoxville from large to a single road, all with new housing construction. So homes are coming, but slowly. The supply chain problems and labor shortages are really slowing down the rate of construction and jacking up prices at the same time.

That is why I am waiting until 2023.

I am hoping 6% to 8% rates for 30 year fixed mortgages will slow the market enough to raise inventory to somewhat more normal levels. The key is, by 2025, I expect a bad enough recession that the Fed will panic and slam the prime rate back to zero, and I will be able to refinance to 4% or under. That is the plan anyway. Call me crazy.

I have no clue if it is a good or bad time to buy a home in Knoxville.

I don't think homes are going to get any cheaper in the future, as Knoxville is hot and people keep moving in. Mortgage rates are only going up. With our high inflation, even if you lose 20% or 30% from peak buying now, it won't be long before inflation pushes home values back up to where you are even or better.

At the same time, housing feels "bubbly" and I would rather wait to see if prices flatten with leaping interest rates. Either way, there is just no selection for me right now and homes are still selling quickly.

I would hate to have to move to Maryville, as I really want to stay in West Knox, but I may be forced out of the area by home prices or just lack of availability in the size and type of home I need as I age. Single story homes are still rare as hens teeth around here, never mind having the garage at the same level as the rest of the house. As hilly as we are, most homes have a garage below the level of the rest of single story homes.